November Med/Long Range Discussion

[BTRWx]

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I'm finding it hard to wait until Dec 1 but I think I can do it.

3 months.  By March I don't care.

Their data is useful, but I'm leaning more and more against the existence of weather-subscription services.  I think it'd be nearly impossible for private sector mets to make a living off from it consistently. 

[BTRWx]

3 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

That's the one.  You want a neg AO, but if you're stuck with a pos AO you want the pos NAO to go with it.

Anyone else notice the dates of that discussion?  Yikes!

[CAPE]

46 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I'm finding it hard to wait until Dec 1 but I think I can do it.

3 months.  By March I don't care.

Yeah thats what I was going to do. Just have the feeling we could get something interesting to track by early December, so pulled the trigger a bit earlier than I was planning to.

[showmethesnow]

For what it is worth, the 00Z Euro drives a system underneath our region day 9-10. Shows north and west of the cities with 3-6 and the cities themselves with a 1-2. Temps are marginal at both the surface and the 850's. EPS has minimal support for the the op with only a couple members throwing out snow for that time period.

[PDIII]

Sounds about right. sounds like .. hopefully...we will hit with at least some slop before Dec 15.

[Wonderdog]

Slop is underrated. 

[Heisy]

Highzenberg is back. New & Improved though, of course.

No posts on the 00z EURO?! Common now. 50/50, mini block helps lock in some cold air (for late Nov)...the issue though is the Pacific, but this kind of popped up out of no where.

The 6z GFS had something sort of resembling the overall setup, but wasn't really close to producing anything. 

If the 12z EURO has anything similar to the 00z we might have our first legit time period to track

 

[BTRWx]

1 hour ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Highzenberg is back. New & Improved though, of course.

No posts on the 00z EURO?! Common now. 50/50, mini block helps lock in some cold air (for late Nov)...the issue though is the Pacific, but this kind of popped up out of no where.

The 6z GFS had something sort of resembling the overall setup, but wasn't really close to producing anything. 

If the 12z EURO has anything similar to the 00z we might have our first legit time period to track

 

Maybe for northerners.

[WinterWxLuvr]

GFS ensembles are worth a mention day 8 - 9.

So..

I mentioned them.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Somebody give me some detail on the euro for next Sunday.  Looks interesting on tt.

[Bob Chill]

40 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Somebody give me some detail on the euro for next Sunday.  Looks interesting on tt.

Not much action d7-10. 2 storms that track too far east or too late getting going. Temps would be problematic either way. 

 

EPS starting to pick up on something interesting d10-13 range. Block is strong and what looks like something decent undercutting it. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Not much action d7-10. 2 storms that track too far east or too late getting going. Temps would be problematic either way. 

 

EPS starting to pick up on something interesting d10-13 range. Block is strong and what looks like something decent undercutting it. 

A low that slides from Ky off the coast gives us nothing?

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

A low that slides from Ky off the coast gives us nothing?

A little light rain. It gets cranking further north. Only real impact is up in ME. 

Ensembles don't show much promise till after d10

[showmethesnow]

For the most part the 00Z Euro OP is somewhat blah for snow lovers except for the chance of a stray flake or two. But it does have a somewhat interesting day 10 setup. Has a low on the northern La. and Texas border and a high beginning to press down from its north and west. Looking at the 500's we have a slightly positive tilted trough just to its west. Where it would go from there is anybody's guess though.

[showmethesnow]

Looking over the 00Z op and ensemble runs of the Euro, GFS and CMC, as well as some previous runs, I wonder if there may be a window of opportunity roughly day 10-12. Not a strong signal whatsoever but there are hints that this may be a time frame to keep half an eye on.

[CAPE]

44 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

For the most part the 00Z Euro OP is somewhat blah for snow lovers except for the chance of a stray flake or two. But it does have a somewhat interesting day 10 setup. Has a low on the northern La. and Texas border and a high beginning to press down from its north and west. Looking at the 500's we have a slightly positive tilted trough just to its west. Where it would go from there is anybody's guess though.

With the look in the EPAC at that time, and the tendency for toughing still in the west, I think we need to look beyond this period realistically. With the setup currently advertised around day 10,  that low taking a track to our NW would seem more likely than it tracking underneath. Plenty of time for some slight pattern adjustments though, given its still pretty far out there.

[showmethesnow]

1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

With the look in the EPAC at that time, and the tendency for toughing still in the west, I think we need to look beyond this period realistically. With the setup currently advertised around day 10,  that low taking a track to our NW would seem more likely than it tracking underneath. Plenty of time for some slight pattern adjustments though, given its still pretty far out there.

At this point I would have to agree with you. With that setup on the Euro Op that low would probably, at best, go through our region but in more likelihood run to our west. Though it is a somewhat flawed setup I do like the fact that with just a little tweaking we could get that to run underneath us. And that is what I was seeing hints of when looking over the op and ensemble runs. Of course even if we can get good low placement, with it still being early in the season, we would probably being fighting temps. But it is something to follow and I am getting somewhat antsy on having something to track.

[frd]

 

 

Seems the early week forecast by the GFS for a potential split is not in the cards any longer , but instead, as quoted by Judah , the PV instead has a quick recovery. 

Wonder how strong it becomes, IF, this forecast is correct, and the implications for late December, and blocking overall as portrayed by the EURO weeklies .

 

I read on on HM's twitter thread that many times a PV will restrengthen prior to any final split, and or extreme weakening event.  I believe. HM also  talked about SSW events in + QBO seasons and - QBO seasons.   Interesting info he provided.   

 

 

 

 

[Bob Chill]

It's pretty early to have a permanent strat pv split. While it seems that the re-consolidation is probable, the strat is not even in the same universe as far as strength goes compared to the past few seasons. I'm mostly focused on the ao forecasts going into early Dec. Right now they look pretty sweet.  

The pattern in the NH (NA in particular) is going through a significant change. But it's a process and my earlier thoughts about the west getting hit good first before we step down to better chances seems to be an ok call.  

 

The next couple weeks look like a string of storms that will drop snow and cold into the Intermountain west. For them, that's a massive pattern change. It's been warm and dry there for weeks on end and the ski season is off to a very late start in general. 

Even with a -nao it will be hard to get enough cold for snow in our region imho. Too much moderation and no direct shots from the NW. Behind storms and fronts could be pretty chilly but I doubt we'll get a good antecedent airmass until the cycle out west runs its course. 

Late in the ens runs you can see a sig change in height patterns in the npac/AK region. My total wild ass guess is that is the beginning of the switch to getting direct cold shots into our area and hopefully snow of course. 2nd and 3rd week of Dec. Before that kinda has the feel that any accums in the area probably won't include the cities and burbs. 

[frd]

40 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's pretty early to have a permanent strat pv split. While it seems that the re-consolidation is probable, the strat is not even in the same universe as far as strength goes compared to the past few seasons. I'm mostly focused on the ao forecasts going into early Dec. Right now they look pretty sweet.  

The pattern in the NH (NA in particular) is going through a significant change. But it's a process and my earlier thoughts about the west getting hit good first before we step down to better chances seems to be an ok call.  

 

The next couple weeks look like a string of storms that will drop snow and cold into the Intermountain west. For them, that's a massive pattern change. It's been warm and dry there for weeks on end and the ski season is off to a very late start in general. 

Even with a -nao it will be hard to get enough cold for snow in our region imho. Too much moderation and no direct shots from the NW. Behind storms and fronts could be pretty chilly but I doubt we'll get a good antecedent airmass until the cycle out west runs its course. 

Late in the ens runs you can see a sig change in height patterns in the npac/AK region. My total wild ass guess is that is the beginning of the switch to getting direct cold shots into our area and hopefully snow of course. 2nd and 3rd week of Dec. Before that kinda has the feel that any accums in the area probably won't include the cities and burbs. 

 

I agree with your thoughts Bob.

Also, yes it is early to have a SSW event. I believe,  if memory serves me correct , a SSW event, per HM recent Twitter posts are more likely later in the winter season  in a + QBO environment.   

Certainly getting features of the past couple months  to change in the Northern Hemisphere is a start. Getting snow cover in Canada is very important, and that gets going in the weeks ahead moving further South and East in time .  I see that Isotherm posted very recently as well about the abrupt change in the GFS forecasted wind reversal. Isotherm does present some very interesting thoughts about the strat , PV, and various factors regarding blocking in general . His winter outlook takes a fascinating as well at PV and stratosphere over the winter season and what could go wrong with some of the bullishly cold winter forecasts over the East.   

 

 

  

 

 

[usedtobe]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

It's pretty early to have a permanent strat pv split. While it seems that the re-consolidation is probable, the strat is not even in the same universe as far as strength goes compared to the past few seasons. I'm mostly focused on the ao forecasts going into early Dec. Right now they look pretty sweet.  

The pattern in the NH (NA in particular) is going through a significant change. But it's a process and my earlier thoughts about the west getting hit good first before we step down to better chances seems to be an ok call.  

 

The next couple weeks look like a string of storms that will drop snow and cold into the Intermountain west. For them, that's a massive pattern change. It's been warm and dry there for weeks on end and the ski season is off to a very late start in general. 

Even with a -nao it will be hard to get enough cold for snow in our region imho. Too much moderation and no direct shots from the NW. Behind storms and fronts could be pretty chilly but I doubt we'll get a good antecedent airmass until the cycle out west runs its course. 

Late in the ens runs you can see a sig change in height patterns in the npac/AK region. My total wild ass guess is that is the beginning of the switch to getting direct cold shots into our area and hopefully snow of course. 2nd and 3rd week of Dec. Before that kinda has the feel that any accums in the area probably won't include the cities and burbs. 

Bob, I like your thoughts about AK and the Pacific,  until the heights rise over Ak and fall south of AK and a true negative EPO occurs,  I think it will be hard getting enough cold air here for snow even with a negative NAO this early in the season. 

[ravensrule]

1 hour ago, usedtobe said:

Bob, I like your thoughts about AK and the Pacific,  until the heights rise over Ak and fall south of AK and a true negative EPO occurs,  I think it will be hard getting enough cold air here for snow even with a negative NAO this early in the season. 

Welcome back. I hope fishing season went well.

[WinterWxLuvr]

12z gfs and ensembles are bleak if you want snow any time soon.

[CAPE]

30 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

12z gfs and ensembles are bleak if you want snow any time soon.

The Pacific continues to look bad, and recent runs have the positive height anomalies too far west of AK, and toughing in the western US. EPO ridge looks flatter, and PNA negative. Time will tell, but it seems improvement the in EPAC pattern has taken a step or two back the last few runs.

[CAPE]

Looks like we are going to have to be patient. Mean trough is going to set up out west initially, which isn't necessarily bad, and not uncommon for late fall/early winter. Hopefully the ridging sw of AK progresses eastward going forward. At worst, we should have generally seasonable temps for early to mid December.

[Deck Pic]

Going back to 04-05 winter, I've gotten 13 accumulating snowfall events 12/15 or prior. But only 5 of the 13 were 1"+.  The rest 0.25" to 0.75". I don't count T or 0.1 as an accumulating snowfall event.  So not that hard to get early snow in DC proper but most are conversational. 

[CAPE]

Panic room might be open early this year lol. No one can really predict with any certainty, but it seems a back-loaded winter is less likely than the past few, and given the early blocking pattern, there is more of a sense of urgency to score early.

[yoda]

Yes please LR 18z GFS

[mitchnick]

Interesting and encouraging stuff by JB on yesterday's Saturday's Summary at the link below. 

http://www.weatherbell.com/premium/

[PaEasternWX]