WinterWxLuvr Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 As is tradition, it's time for the first med/long range thread of the season. I expect it will be slow at the first, but I'd expect as we move more into November the discussion might gain some steam. Hopefully the mods will pin this and we will have something to discuss within a few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 Sh*t brown season incoming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 One word for mid to late November. Blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 26, 2016 Author Share Posted October 26, 2016 12 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: One word for mid to late November. Blocking. From most of what I'm seeing, including from you, a pretty rapid switch seems to be at least possible around the middle of November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: From most of what I'm seeing, including from you, a pretty rapid switch seems to be at least possible around the middle of November. Hey I am nothing if not predictable. It does seem plausible there will be a -NAO, and maybe the Pacific will be pretty decent as well. Not sure it produces anything meaningful before Thanksgiving, but if we establish a negative AO/NAO in that time frame, it may be a good sign of things to come down the road. We need a good December pattern this year, and it must produce, I believe. We probably cannot waste the first month of met winter as we have in recent years, and have a decent winter. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 We have a -ao/nao on tap for the first 10 days of Nov but the pac jet is blasting into the west conus and Canada due to the persistent trough in the east pac. Ensembles are roasting central Canada d8+ but that will probably change not too far down the road. My guess is persistence beyond mid Nov which is fine. Hopefully the rubber band snaps and a ridge pops in western canada before thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 27, 2016 Author Share Posted October 27, 2016 40 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We have a -ao/nao on tap for the first 10 days of Nov but the pac jet is blasting into the west conus and Canada due to the persistent trough in the east pac. Ensembles are roasting central Canada d8+ but that will probably change not too far down the road. My guess is persistence beyond mid Nov which is fine. Hopefully the rubber band snaps and a ridge pops in western canada before thanksgiving. Yeah, mid November is still pretty far out in lala land. The GEFS shows hints of a cooler pattern at day 16 but again, fantasy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 27, 2016 Author Share Posted October 27, 2016 32 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Finally. The tracking threads are back. May this be the first of many successful ones this winter. I'm feeling the mojo this year. Dont judge me based on November though. Tough month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 18 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I'm feeling the mojo this year. Dont judge me based on November though. Tough month. It can produce in November though. I think just a few years back places in New Jersey (forget where) got around half a foot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 27, 2016 Author Share Posted October 27, 2016 11 minutes ago, WeatherFan202 said: It can produce in November though. I think just a few years back places in New Jersey (forget where) got around half a foot of snow. Oh it can. We had about 5" here the day before Thanksgiving in 2014 (I think that was the year). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 20 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Oh it can. We had about 5" here the day before Thanksgiving in 2014 (I think that was the year). And 1989. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 10 hours ago, Bob Chill said: We have a -ao/nao on tap for the first 10 days of Nov but the pac jet is blasting into the west conus and Canada due to the persistent trough in the east pac. Ensembles are roasting central Canada d8+ but that will probably change not too far down the road. My guess is persistence beyond mid Nov which is fine. Hopefully the rubber band snaps and a ridge pops in western canada before thanksgiving. It looks like that trough wants to weaken/retro back towards the Aleutians on the GEFS towards the end of the run. Be nice if the Pacific can get decent while we have a nice setup on the Atlantic side. Maybe it can all come together for the first week in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 Give it about two more weeks and we'll start to see the signs of what we can reasonably expect once we start getting into early December. I don't have any expectations for anything prior to then in my neck of the woods, so I'm not even bothering to get worked up about November weather other than to get a feel for how it can portend an early-winter pattern. I'm not terribly thrilled about being down south for the beginning of the month. I honestly think I'm going to miss an event during that time, even if it's small. Hopefully we come back to an established cold pattern and a chance for something leading into Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 27, 2016 Author Share Posted October 27, 2016 3 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: It looks like that trough wants to weaken/retro back towards the Aleutians on the GEFS towards the end of the run. Be nice if the Pacific can get decent while we have a nice setup on the Atlantic side. Maybe it can all come together for the first week in December. At some point prior to the first of December, I expect we will see our first real cold front sweep through, perhaps some flurries or snow showers as well as the first upslope snow event for the mountains to our west. I think that will lay the foundation for December by establishing some meaningful cold air, cold(er) ground, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: At some point prior to the first of December, I expect we will see our first real cold front sweep through, perhaps some flurries or snow showers as well as the first upslope snow event for the mountains to our west. I think that will lay the foundation for December by establishing some meaningful cold air, cold(er) ground, etc. That's my thinking, as well. Once that cold air is established, we may get a shot or two at a small event prior to a mini-relaxation of the pattern prior to Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 Do not want (from LWX's afternoon AFD) Strong ridging will build south of the area early next week resulting in several days of warmer and drier than normal conditions. Daytime highs could approach 80 degrees during the middle of next week, which is about 15 to 20 degrees above normal for the first week of November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxReese Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Do not want (from LWX's afternoon AFD) Yeah.... I was wondering if y'all were going to talk about the potential 80s the first few days of November. All I know is we need the SE to get some rain to get rid of their drought some. If not, we'll be teetering on the edge of winter weather more often than not due to that SE Ridge that would be in place. Of course, blocking will help, but I want to see that SE Ridge die a horrible death before we start talking about any meaningful sustained cold/snow chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 8 minutes ago, yoda said: Do not want (from LWX's afternoon AFD) Actually. I would rather have it now then around Christmas time. Lets just get the torch out of the way early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 There's no large areas of cold air forecast anywhere in North America for at least 10 days. Canada is looking really warm relative to normal. We're in for a warm stretch. Best to just enjoy it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 Its going to be warm relative to normal for a few days beginning late in the weekend, no doubt about that. Low to maybe mid 70s for sure. Not sure I buy 80+ for multiple days though. It also continues to look like we cool back down to average by the end of next week into the following weekend. As Bob said, its really beyond that(mid month or so) when we could see temps get chilly. I don't see anything that suggests anomalous cold though. My thoughts are if we do get some persistence with the -AO/NAO, and some improvement in the eastern Pacific, we could have noteworthy cold in early December, when we can put it to use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 28, 2016 Share Posted October 28, 2016 16 hours ago, yoda said: Do not want (from LWX's afternoon AFD) Dry and warm in early November? Yes, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 28, 2016 Share Posted October 28, 2016 26 minutes ago, mattie g said: Dry and warm in early November? Yes, please. No big deal really. It's called indian summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 28, 2016 Share Posted October 28, 2016 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: No big deal really. It's called indian summer. Yup. A warm stretch in the beginning of November 1) is no surprise and 2) has no bearing on anything later in the year. It'll be warm without humidity. Just enjoy it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 28, 2016 Share Posted October 28, 2016 11 minutes ago, mattie g said: Yup. A warm stretch in the beginning of November 1) is no surprise and 2) has no bearing on anything later in the year. It'll be warm without humidity. Just enjoy it! I pray that this is true... But I've definitely seen times when a strong cold front can nudge some rather nasty (for November) humidity up into our area. Makes the house feel almost wet on the floors when you're walking with bare feet. Ewww! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxReese Posted October 28, 2016 Share Posted October 28, 2016 4 hours ago, Kmlwx said: I pray that this is true... But I've definitely seen times when a strong cold front can nudge some rather nasty (for November) humidity up into our area. Makes the house feel almost wet on the floors when you're walking with bare feet. Ewww! DPs are going to be in the mid 50s or so next Wednesday and Thursday. While not terrible, it's still going to be a bit humid for my taste. Oh, and my forecast having more temperatures that start with an 8 than a 6 in late October/early November is cruel. (Yes, I went torch status for my forecast tonight in Charlottesville. ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 28, 2016 Share Posted October 28, 2016 6 minutes ago, WxReese said: DPs are going to be in the mid 50s or so next Wednesday and Thursday. While not terrible, it's still going to be a bit humid for my taste. Oh, and my forecast having more temperatures that start with an 8 than a 6 in late October/early November is cruel. (Yes, I went torch status for my forecast tonight in Charlottesville. ) Yeah - it's all about the time of year. 50s dewpoints would be great in July/August. In November 50s dewpoints don't feel great at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 29, 2016 Share Posted October 29, 2016 80/55 is great any time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 29, 2016 Share Posted October 29, 2016 Still looks like a decent pattern setting up for the eastern US mid to late November. Should be seasonably chilly, maybe a tad below average at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 On 10/28/2016 at 8:33 AM, mitchnick said: No big deal really. It's called indian summer. Its been nothing but indian summer since summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 Unseasonably warm seems to be the norm around here with occasional cold shots. Hopefully it cools down for turkey day but my expectations are low. We often find a way to be warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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