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Novie is near, the first un-official month of SNE winter!


Typhoon Tip

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no...not liking any of it anymore. 

i admit to having been a proponent of pattern modulation toward colder times to close out the month; i'm not 'totally' committed to back-peddling but i'm really f close to doing that man. 

i'm noticing a trend i can't ignore any longer.  the tele's have just migrated through a great signal and it failed to materialize a pattern over N/A.  

part of that is always a gamble.  we parlay based upon the pna, but ...the risk there is that the pna is such a massive domain space; it could be positive(negative) and some percentage of the time ...fail to correlate because it is so huge.  if the western two-thirds of the index' domain space is positive(negative), the particulars in the conjoining r-wave spacing might still bone n/a ..or favor in negative phases...etc.  most know this, or should -

that seems to have take place.  the mjo was also useless, despite passing nicely at moderate strength through phases 7-8-1...  that failed to register much of a more typical correlation in its own right.  

one thing i've noticed through it all is that the wpo has been a big donkey dong up the butt for all this thinking, all along.  maybe the transmitted signal down stream over the north pacific was just too much to overcome.  

now, (gefs) show the pna neutralizing (not buying the week two ending rise...like, come on - jesus).   and, with the epo neutral/positive, i would have more confidence that the new ao dive dumps cold again on the other side of the pole.  

we just need things to come around and finally align and sync up, despite whatever the teleconnector, specific numbers indicate they could.  and we can see that in the operationals, which also have never really bought in.  they're trying to ever other cycle or so - but the systems keep flattening out and showing that the age old miami-rule can't be overcome.  588 heights over florida tends to be bad in most cases... not all, but most.  the pattern?  f, the pattern we are in is called a mind-f chain yanking.  

heh, mayeb ... probably ... all of this is just november.  gee -

 

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25 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Wow...you really think a lot about all that stuff. 

All good points..but those indices could change tomorrow on the modeling, and then where are we??  

Personally, I'm enjoying the great weather, and I like the way we look to step down going forward.  Like you said...it's only November!

It's a pretty typical climo pattern slightly cooler than normal with increased chances of storms. Eastern Canada is going to be deep in snow, heights are lower than normal in our hood, Canadian high pressure and blocking exist .  Excellent snow making conditions with no major torches in sight . Perhaps some excellent chances evolve especially for the climo favored interior areas. ENS mean certainly favors a good coverage of snow over the great white north . 

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12 hours ago, weathafella said:

I'd hate to miss 1st flakes but I may.  On the beach for the weekend with unseasonably warm temperatures in the mid 80s.

I'll miss the Sunday ones, too.  Nothing making it into coastal Maine.

They better be careful out here in GC:

Saturday Night
A chance of rain showers in the evening...then rain and snow showers likely after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight. Snow accumulation up to 1 inch possible. Lows in the mid 30s. South winds around 5 mph...increasing to west 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.
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I hope Chris happens to be taking a cruise in the neighborhood if it does in fact snow and takes a measurement.  Every inch counts in the seasonal total even if it does get washed away on Thanksgiving.

 

...ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES...

RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE RAIN IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW BETWEEN 1 AND 4 AM SUNDAY MORNING
ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES. A
BRIEF BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE, BUT IT WILL NOT
LAST LONG AND SHOULD BE OVER BY 7 OR 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING. A QUICK
1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WITH LOCALIZED 3 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THIS REGION. MOTORISTS PLANNING TRAVEL ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED
ROADS AND SLIPPERY TRAVEL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
 

Then there's this:

Sunday Night
Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers. Blustery with lows in the mid 20s. West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.
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8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Except that TGiving likely a snower..or mix.. Especially there..and another more widespread wintry wave that weekend 

I would say that "likely" is a bit too aggressive a word at this point for Thanksgiving.  We're hosting it this year.  The last time we tried to host (3 years ago???) we had a big wet snow that knocked out the power for two days.  We had to load up the turkey and drive to Marblehead to cook there. 

I think we wound up with 8" from that one.  It was a night of exploding transformers. Thank God I had my snows on.  I remember driving to Pine Hill Orchard to pick up a couple of pies.  It has a long deceptive hill had many cars unable to get to the top.

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1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

I would say that "likely" is a bit too aggressive a word at this point for Thanksgiving.  We're hosting it this year.  The last time we tried to host (3 years ago???) we had a big wet snow that knocked out the power for two days.  We had to load up the turkey and drive to Marblehead to cook there. 

I think we wound up with 8" from that one.  It was a night of exploding transformers. Thank God I had my snows on.  I remember driving to Pine Hill Orchard to pick up a couple of pies.  It has a long deceptive hill had many cars unable to get to the top.

2014

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mmm, I'd put the probability of a winter-like event, from T-G through the following Tuesday at 50/50 ...

The pattern is volatile, and therein ... yeah, there's potential.  But the way the pattern in ... I kind of liken it to a unmanned fire-hose... the end of which being the model performance. They are spraying solutions all over the place, sans consistency both in timing and intensities...making it less clear (at times) which impulse to really focus on..

All the while, the volatility still exists, so we cannot discount possibilities all together.

The other aspect is, people should prepare themselves (if you're vested for snow) for the possibility that we're dealt a cornucopia of events with marginal cold.. We are not preceding that period of time with a -EPO load.  And as I said early, the scenario hasn't changed where Canada is lacking a cryosphere right now, so the -NAO ... if it ever does take -2 SD form notwithstanding, may not have the best cold supply to tap into.  Just daring some objective observations into the outlook there. We could score a 100 on getting anything to happen, but end up with cruel irony.

Which isn't really so cruel.  I can count on one hand the number of truly white T-Gs I can remember.

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The Dec 1 threat looks cutterish on the ensembles. Obviously pretty far out so no need to parse details, but I'm not thrilled with the look on that one. The one after Tday looks like it has more legs...but it has some spacing issues of its own. The Tday system will have a lot to say about that. Tday looks pretty warm so at this point I wouldn't expect snow in SNE out of it. Best shot would be N MA in high terrain. 

 

But even Tday is pretty far out so a lot can still change. But those are my thoughts at it stands today. 

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16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The Dec 1 threat looks cutterish on the ensembles. Obviously pretty far out so no need to parse details, but I'm not thrilled with the look on that one. The one after Tday looks like it has more legs...but it has some spacing issues of its own. The Tday system will have a lot to say about that. Tday looks pretty warm so at this point I wouldn't expect snow in SNE out of it. Best shot would be N MA in high terrain. 

 

But even Tday is pretty far out so a lot can still change. But those are my thoughts at it stands today. 

Hmm products I looked at have biggest MSLP anomalies off the MA then CC

Screenshot_20161119-202421.png

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