Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 EPS getting very interesting.. Just a wave train of storms thru end of run.. Will be quite a few storm/snow chances thru early Dec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 18, 2016 Author Share Posted November 18, 2016 no...not liking any of it anymore. i admit to having been a proponent of pattern modulation toward colder times to close out the month; i'm not 'totally' committed to back-peddling but i'm really f close to doing that man. i'm noticing a trend i can't ignore any longer. the tele's have just migrated through a great signal and it failed to materialize a pattern over N/A. part of that is always a gamble. we parlay based upon the pna, but ...the risk there is that the pna is such a massive domain space; it could be positive(negative) and some percentage of the time ...fail to correlate because it is so huge. if the western two-thirds of the index' domain space is positive(negative), the particulars in the conjoining r-wave spacing might still bone n/a ..or favor in negative phases...etc. most know this, or should - that seems to have take place. the mjo was also useless, despite passing nicely at moderate strength through phases 7-8-1... that failed to register much of a more typical correlation in its own right. one thing i've noticed through it all is that the wpo has been a big donkey dong up the butt for all this thinking, all along. maybe the transmitted signal down stream over the north pacific was just too much to overcome. now, (gefs) show the pna neutralizing (not buying the week two ending rise...like, come on - jesus). and, with the epo neutral/positive, i would have more confidence that the new ao dive dumps cold again on the other side of the pole. we just need things to come around and finally align and sync up, despite whatever the teleconnector, specific numbers indicate they could. and we can see that in the operationals, which also have never really bought in. they're trying to ever other cycle or so - but the systems keep flattening out and showing that the age old miami-rule can't be overcome. 588 heights over florida tends to be bad in most cases... not all, but most. the pattern? f, the pattern we are in is called a mind-f chain yanking. heh, mayeb ... probably ... all of this is just november. gee - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 Wow...you really think a lot about all that stuff. All good points..but those indices could change tomorrow on the modeling, and then where are we?? Personally, I'm enjoying the great weather, and I like the way we look to step down going forward. Like you said...it's only November! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 25 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Wow...you really think a lot about all that stuff. All good points..but those indices could change tomorrow on the modeling, and then where are we?? Personally, I'm enjoying the great weather, and I like the way we look to step down going forward. Like you said...it's only November! It's a pretty typical climo pattern slightly cooler than normal with increased chances of storms. Eastern Canada is going to be deep in snow, heights are lower than normal in our hood, Canadian high pressure and blocking exist . Excellent snow making conditions with no major torches in sight . Perhaps some excellent chances evolve especially for the climo favored interior areas. ENS mean certainly favors a good coverage of snow over the great white north . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 Ya, I'm ok with what is being shown on the modeling/ensembles. Let's roll the dice as they say! Anything beats last December! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 12 hours ago, weathafella said: I'd hate to miss 1st flakes but I may. On the beach for the weekend with unseasonably warm temperatures in the mid 80s. I'll miss the Sunday ones, too. Nothing making it into coastal Maine. They better be careful out here in GC: Saturday Night A chance of rain showers in the evening...then rain and snow showers likely after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight. Snow accumulation up to 1 inch possible. Lows in the mid 30s. South winds around 5 mph...increasing to west 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 As long as I don't see the words "deconstructive interference" or "Scooter streak" this winter I'll be o.k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 I hope Chris happens to be taking a cruise in the neighborhood if it does in fact snow and takes a measurement. Every inch counts in the seasonal total even if it does get washed away on Thanksgiving. ...ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES... RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW BETWEEN 1 AND 4 AM SUNDAY MORNING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES. A BRIEF BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE, BUT IT WILL NOT LAST LONG AND SHOULD BE OVER BY 7 OR 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING. A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WITH LOCALIZED 3 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION. MOTORISTS PLANNING TRAVEL ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND SLIPPERY TRAVEL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. Then there's this: Sunday Night Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers. Blustery with lows in the mid 20s. West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 Except that TGiving likely a snower..or mix.. Especially there..and another more widespread wintry wave that weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Except that TGiving likely a snower..or mix.. Especially there..and another more widespread wintry wave that weekend I would say that "likely" is a bit too aggressive a word at this point for Thanksgiving. We're hosting it this year. The last time we tried to host (3 years ago???) we had a big wet snow that knocked out the power for two days. We had to load up the turkey and drive to Marblehead to cook there. I think we wound up with 8" from that one. It was a night of exploding transformers. Thank God I had my snows on. I remember driving to Pine Hill Orchard to pick up a couple of pies. It has a long deceptive hill had many cars unable to get to the top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 1 hour ago, moneypitmike said: I would say that "likely" is a bit too aggressive a word at this point for Thanksgiving. We're hosting it this year. The last time we tried to host (3 years ago???) we had a big wet snow that knocked out the power for two days. We had to load up the turkey and drive to Marblehead to cook there. I think we wound up with 8" from that one. It was a night of exploding transformers. Thank God I had my snows on. I remember driving to Pine Hill Orchard to pick up a couple of pies. It has a long deceptive hill had many cars unable to get to the top. 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 17 minutes ago, dendrite said: 2014 Thanks--it was a great event. Probably the most I got that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 I'd watch that 11/28 storm. #snowy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 59 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I'd watch that 11/28 storm. #snowy It's always nice to see you make full transformation into winter weenie mode. Fly on white butterfly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 NAM looks pretty cold Monday and Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 Just nice to see the activity, in model land, increasing on cue. interior folks have a couple chances thru early dec then we start saggin the boundry towards the metro burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 Can we get that day 9 storm on the Euro closer please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 I'll take the one on the 25-26 first and worry about hr 240 later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 The Saturday one is showing up on GFS too though the GFS is more of an inverted trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 19, 2016 Author Share Posted November 19, 2016 mmm, I'd put the probability of a winter-like event, from T-G through the following Tuesday at 50/50 ... The pattern is volatile, and therein ... yeah, there's potential. But the way the pattern in ... I kind of liken it to a unmanned fire-hose... the end of which being the model performance. They are spraying solutions all over the place, sans consistency both in timing and intensities...making it less clear (at times) which impulse to really focus on.. All the while, the volatility still exists, so we cannot discount possibilities all together. The other aspect is, people should prepare themselves (if you're vested for snow) for the possibility that we're dealt a cornucopia of events with marginal cold.. We are not preceding that period of time with a -EPO load. And as I said early, the scenario hasn't changed where Canada is lacking a cryosphere right now, so the -NAO ... if it ever does take -2 SD form notwithstanding, may not have the best cold supply to tap into. Just daring some objective observations into the outlook there. We could score a 100 on getting anything to happen, but end up with cruel irony. Which isn't really so cruel. I can count on one hand the number of truly white T-Gs I can remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 Let's cue up the 70th birthday storm signal on eps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 On 11/18/2016 at 4:24 PM, Damage In Tolland said: EPS getting very interesting.. Just a wave train of storms thru end of run.. Will be quite a few storm/snow chances thru early Dec Yes again today , like the look Dec 1 ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 3 hours ago, weathafella said: Let's cue up the 70th birthday storm signal on eps. Wow man 70, let's hope so. sh it I remember your 55th on WWBB. Damn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Yes again today , like the look Dec 1 ish Nov 28 is the one to watch.. after the Tgiving wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Nov 28 is the one to watch.. after the Tgiving wave Storms and rumors of storms . We like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Storms and rumors of storms . We like We snow while SC beaches shiver Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 The Dec 1 threat looks cutterish on the ensembles. Obviously pretty far out so no need to parse details, but I'm not thrilled with the look on that one. The one after Tday looks like it has more legs...but it has some spacing issues of its own. The Tday system will have a lot to say about that. Tday looks pretty warm so at this point I wouldn't expect snow in SNE out of it. Best shot would be N MA in high terrain. But even Tday is pretty far out so a lot can still change. But those are my thoughts at it stands today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The Dec 1 threat looks cutterish on the ensembles. Obviously pretty far out so no need to parse details, but I'm not thrilled with the look on that one. The one after Tday looks like it has more legs...but it has some spacing issues of its own. The Tday system will have a lot to say about that. Tday looks pretty warm so at this point I wouldn't expect snow in SNE out of it. Best shot would be N MA in high terrain. But even Tday is pretty far out so a lot can still change. But those are my thoughts at it stands today. Hmm products I looked at have biggest MSLP anomalies off the MA then CC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 Steve, it looks like there is some strong surface lows there on the map, I like the 27th/28th period for something big, the teleconnections supports a -NAO/-AO/+PNA pattern then before it reloads into the beginning of the month of DEC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 Steve I like the look of that 959mb low just south of Nantucket. Could be winds near 80-90mph on Cape Cod and Nantucket. If that was the low pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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