CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 I think James will have to wait awhile for his snow. Meanwhile, should be a nice kickoff to ski season starting Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 Nice ground whitener interior areas Sun PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Nice ground whitener interior areas Sun PM did Twitter tell you that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: did Twitter tell you that? Modeling did. Flakes right to the coast. You'll see some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 Very interesting setup for Tgiving. Options range from rain to mix to rain ending as snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Modeling did. Flakes right to the coast. You'll see some I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 NNE looks like a decent chance for first more widespread snowfall T-Day. At least for now anyways. Still might be a bit too warm down here, but it's still early. Beyond that, the Pacific jet is real active, but with some blocking near Hudson bay, that active jet will help develop cyclogenesis at times in the East. Hopefully one of these can work out at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 Looking deeper, I could agree with kevin as tons of moisture wrap around Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 33 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Nice ground whitener interior areas Sun PM Yes indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looking deeper, I could agree with kevin as tons of moisture wrap around Sunday night. lol. you have a hard time fully committing to agree with him. "I could agree", funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: lol. you have a hard time fully committing to agree with him. "I could agree", funny. Who doesn't? LOL. I could see it though. Will depend if enough moisture wraps around or perhaps a streamer leaking in from the Berkshires. Nothing atypical heading later into November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 I'd hate to miss 1st flakes but I may. On the beach for the weekend with unseasonably warm temperatures in the mid 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 DLH radar is getting close to disrobing material. Wait until that instability near MSP works its way north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: DLH radar is getting close to disrobing material. Wait until that instability near MSP works its way north. The weather channel is live a Grand Rapids MN which looks to be the sweet spot. Some nice love shots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 It's not snow or cold, but I'm curious to see just how warm we get today. 850s are really toasty, but we sit in a bit of a col and models have an extremely shallow inversion down to around 950mb. Even though the sun angle is very low I find it hard to believe that inversion level will pan out with clear skies, no snow cover, and relatively dry ground. If we could mix up to 900mb we'd be whipping out the shorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 6 minutes ago, dendrite said: It's not snow or cold, but I'm curious to see just how warm we get today. 850s are really toasty, but we sit in a bit of a col and models have an extremely shallow inversion down to around 950mb. Even though the sun angle is very low I find it hard to believe that inversion level will pan out with clear skies, no snow cover, and relatively dry ground. If we could mix up to 900mb we'd be whipping out the shorts. 46 at 930 Am here would be surprised if we get above 60-62 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 42 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 46 at 930 Am here would be surprised if we get above 60-62 I think CON beats 62F....I'm leaning 65-66F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 7 minutes ago, dendrite said: I think CON beats 62F....I'm leaning 65-66F. Lets do it. Torch on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 Man, scooter... the weeklies look cold and stormy for Christmas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 They do, but week 4 has been total crap so I'm not really buying it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 Just now, CoastalWx said: They do, but week 4 has been total crap so I'm not really buying it yet. Well, I'm not sealing a white xmas....just mind fodder on a mild, lame Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, I'm not sealing a white xmas....just mind fodder on a mild, lame Friday. It's an active look for sure over the next few weeks. Hopefully the area can try and cash in on at least one of these. I've heard some interesting theories on this recent pattern. It may have been MJO driven, but many are speculating that the jetstream has been anomalous in the western pacific thanks to the extreme Siberian cold. Basically clash of airmasses with strong thermal gradients helping to fuel the jet and downstream trough in GOAK area. The models overall have been too quick to break this down. I can't help but think this has something to do with it. That cold means business and has downstream effects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 16 hours ago, powderfreak said: I wish folks could witness it, as the meso-scale nature is pretty cool in these progged set-ups. Like every half mile can make a huge difference. That's why I chuckle when people talk about and remember a given winter event in which someone who got a few inches more than them *only* 10-20 miles away. That seems like every event here. 20 miles is a huge distance and you could see snowfall double and then decrease to zero even within those 20 miles up this way. There are events with a 3 foot gradient over even 10-15 miles when its ripping 30-35dbz for 18 hours. Big difference when elevation is in play, or with LES. It's when the 10" difference in 20 miles comes during a synoptic event that we whine, especially if the cause is qpf rather than p-type. At least the models have something interesting to conjecturize. (I know that's not a real word...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 3 hours ago, dendrite said: It's not snow or cold, but I'm curious to see just how warm we get today. 850s are really toasty, but we sit in a bit of a col and models have an extremely shallow inversion down to around 950mb. Even though the sun angle is very low I find it hard to believe that inversion level will pan out with clear skies, no snow cover, and relatively dry ground. If we could mix up to 900mb we'd be whipping out the shorts. It's 59F right now at 4000ft MMNV1. Thats insane. It's now up to 54F at MVL from 48F so maybe we are mixing it out. From the ski resort the valley looks real hazy and you can see the inversion. Warm season, a 59F at the summit would be mid-70s at MVL. 14-17 degree increase with normal lapse rates from 4000ft to 750ft...and that's usually what we get most of the summer. Top is almost always 15F cooler than town as the basic rule in a mixed atmosphere. Quite the change in 850 temps in 24 hours...from low 30s yesterday at this time to now near 60F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 It's 62F here in Enfield right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 get another 18 in for the season, embrace it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 Euro actually a bit too far south for T-Day. LOL. Really digs the ULL to the south. GFS-EC compromise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro actually a bit too far south for T-Day. LOL. Really digs the ULL to the south. GFS-EC compromise? That shortwave diving in on its heels could produce mood flakes or even some light accumulations on the weekend too...obviously just fodder at this point, but it's been kind of consistent on the models...the shortwave that is. Something to maybe look at as we get closer. T-day has such marginal temps...probably an interior north of pike into NNE type deal would be my best guess for something to happen if it does at all. A scraper is probably just mostly rain for southern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 Just now, ORH_wxman said: That shortwave diving in on its heels could produce mood flakes or even some light accumulations on the weekend too...obviously just fodder at this point, but it's been kind of consistent on the models...the shortwave that is. Something to maybe look at as we get closer. T-day has such marginal temps...probably an interior north of pike into NNE type deal would be my best guess for something to happen if it does at all. A scraper is probably just mostly rain for southern areas. Yeah I was just thinking about how active it looks. Nice to see that. So while each chance might not be high, there are two storm chances I think from T-Day through that Monday-Wednesday or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 Fodder for now but models at least have a system in the thanksgiving time farme and there after, Details to be worked out over the next several days, Air mass up here is close to something wintry at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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