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Novie is near, the first un-official month of SNE winter!


Typhoon Tip

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This is my favorite time of year on these threads. "Winter on!"; "Winter cancel"...."PV in Hudson Bay"; "SE Ridge will grow palm trees on summit of Mt Washington!"

It's like right before the election. You want it to be over (the anxiety, I mean), but you also enjoy the game. 

Bring it on! I'm voting for some real significant snow in December, white Christmas and no Grincher.

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16 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Congrats on your snow Powderfreak

Nothing has fallen yet and no need to give congrats based on a random model output... and although I post them for posterity sake, its hard to know when its legit or not.  Get it within 72 hours and we are game on.  The first event should have some merit now that there's a general consensus, but we are talking elevations of 1,500ft and above.  I do think I've got a good chance of covering the grass down here in town, but the big totals in an orographic regime would be a couple miles up the road.  I could get 3" in town and warning criteria a few miles away at 1,500ft and measuring with a yard stick above 3,000ft.  Its very localized in these set-ups but that almost makes it more interesting trying to figure out the minute details.  The model resolution will never accurately depict it but it gives us some guidance in the potential.

I wish folks could witness it, as the meso-scale nature is pretty cool in these progged set-ups.  Like every half mile can make a huge difference.  That's why I chuckle when people talk about and remember a given winter event in which someone who got a few inches more than them *only* 10-20 miles away.  That seems like every event here. 

20 miles is a huge distance and you could see snowfall double and then decrease to zero even within those 20 miles up this way.  There are events with a 3 foot gradient over even 10-15 miles when its ripping 30-35dbz for 18 hours.

rad_kcxx_n1r_ani.gif

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44 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

18z GFS is not tossed... 24" for Mansfield and up to 30" for Jay Peak and alex at Bretton Woods over the 10 day period.  Upslope white dream.  First event still looks real good, we'll see if that holds as we go into the weekend.

Most of this is snow for the mountains.

17NOV16B.jpg

 

Thanks for the images PF, pretty cool.  We’ll obviously have to see how the next week or so plays out, but that QPF map for potential snow… that’s how November is done.

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53 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Nothing has fallen yet and no need to give congrats based on a random model output... and although I post them for posterity sake, its hard to know when its legit or not.  Get it within 72 hours and we are game on.  The first event should have some merit now that there's a general consensus, but we are talking elevations of 1,500ft and above.  I do think I've got a good chance of covering the grass down here in town, but the big totals in an orographic regime would be a couple miles up the road.  I could get 3" in town and warning criteria a few miles away at 1,500ft and measuring with a yard stick above 3,000ft.  Its very localized in these set-ups but that almost makes it more interesting trying to figure out the minute details.  The model resolution will never accurately depict it but it gives us some guidance in the potential.

I wish folks could witness it, as the meso-scale nature is pretty cool in these progged set-ups.  Like every half mile can make a huge difference.  That's why I chuckle when people talk about and remember a given winter event in which someone who got a few inches more than them *only* 10-20 miles away.  That seems like every event here. 

20 miles is a huge distance and you could see snowfall double and then decrease to zero even within those 20 miles up this way.  There are events with a 3 foot gradient over even 10-15 miles when its ripping 30-35dbz for 18 hours.

rad_kcxx_n1r_ani.gif

That winter FTL.

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36 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Scott vs Scott, Everyone has there favorites and duds

That year it was all of us against him and Jspin lol. It's all good. We live in different winter climo zones so one would expect such discrepancies.  I'm glad the ski season may start with a bang Sunday. 

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24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That year it was all of us against him and Jspin lol. It's all good. We live in different winter climo zones so one would expect such discrepancies.  I'm glad the ski season may start with a bang Sunday. 

 Its a positive start to this season up there for sure after last year.......lol, Start out in elevated areas and then move it east to the coastline going forward into December

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28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That year it was all of us against him and Jspin lol. It's all good. We live in different winter climo zones so one would expect such discrepancies.  I'm glad the ski season may start with a bang Sunday. 

We were all torching 2 weeks later. I'm glad I didn't have any snow on the ground at that point.

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2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

18z GFS is not tossed... 24" for Mansfield and up to 30" for Jay Peak and alex at Bretton Woods over the 10 day period.  Upslope white dream.  First event still looks real good, we'll see if that holds as we go into the weekend.

Most of this is snow for the mountains.

gfs_tprecip_neng_41.png

 

 

 

gfs_6hr_snow_acc_montreal_41.png

 

Thank you for posting that... would make for some construction challenges on my new cabin, but I'm pretty sure I'd be too happy to worry about that. :)

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1 hour ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Will when should I start paying attention to potential storms in terms of snow for this year?

For the Cape? Probably another month. Lol. Maybe you'll get lucky before that. Tough time of the year down there...a ton of stuff has to be just right for accumulating snow. Flakes are a bit easier. 

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