USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 Yes tougher, but with 850mb temps that low, we could definitely see snow to the coastline, Nantucket might be out of luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 Will could we make a pattern change thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 Oy vey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 This is my favorite time of year on these threads. "Winter on!"; "Winter cancel"...."PV in Hudson Bay"; "SE Ridge will grow palm trees on summit of Mt Washington!" It's like right before the election. You want it to be over (the anxiety, I mean), but you also enjoy the game. Bring it on! I'm voting for some real significant snow in December, white Christmas and no Grincher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 time of year where the models start getting to everyones head. Models run our happiness/sadness lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 21 minutes ago, dryslot said: Oy vey Long winter incoming. Unfortunately probably not weather wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 18z GFS is not tossed... 24" for Mansfield and up to 30" for Jay Peak and alex at Bretton Woods over the 10 day period. Upslope white dream. First event still looks real good, we'll see if that holds as we go into the weekend. Most of this is snow for the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 Congrats on your snow Powderfreak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 16 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Congrats on your snow Powderfreak Nothing has fallen yet and no need to give congrats based on a random model output... and although I post them for posterity sake, its hard to know when its legit or not. Get it within 72 hours and we are game on. The first event should have some merit now that there's a general consensus, but we are talking elevations of 1,500ft and above. I do think I've got a good chance of covering the grass down here in town, but the big totals in an orographic regime would be a couple miles up the road. I could get 3" in town and warning criteria a few miles away at 1,500ft and measuring with a yard stick above 3,000ft. Its very localized in these set-ups but that almost makes it more interesting trying to figure out the minute details. The model resolution will never accurately depict it but it gives us some guidance in the potential. I wish folks could witness it, as the meso-scale nature is pretty cool in these progged set-ups. Like every half mile can make a huge difference. That's why I chuckle when people talk about and remember a given winter event in which someone who got a few inches more than them *only* 10-20 miles away. That seems like every event here. 20 miles is a huge distance and you could see snowfall double and then decrease to zero even within those 20 miles up this way. There are events with a 3 foot gradient over even 10-15 miles when its ripping 30-35dbz for 18 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 11 minutes ago, dendrite said: Long winter incoming. Unfortunately probably not weather wise. Oh how we pray that is not the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 Dendrite, what makes you think this won't be an actual winter weather wise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewbeer Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 49 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: we could see our first chance at snowfall. We've already had our first snowfall here in the valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 Just now, Brewbeer said: We've already had our first snowfall here in the valley. Cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 Rain for CC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 44 minutes ago, powderfreak said: 18z GFS is not tossed... 24" for Mansfield and up to 30" for Jay Peak and alex at Bretton Woods over the 10 day period. Upslope white dream. First event still looks real good, we'll see if that holds as we go into the weekend. Most of this is snow for the mountains. Thanks for the images PF, pretty cool. We’ll obviously have to see how the next week or so plays out, but that QPF map for potential snow… that’s how November is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 53 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Nothing has fallen yet and no need to give congrats based on a random model output... and although I post them for posterity sake, its hard to know when its legit or not. Get it within 72 hours and we are game on. The first event should have some merit now that there's a general consensus, but we are talking elevations of 1,500ft and above. I do think I've got a good chance of covering the grass down here in town, but the big totals in an orographic regime would be a couple miles up the road. I could get 3" in town and warning criteria a few miles away at 1,500ft and measuring with a yard stick above 3,000ft. Its very localized in these set-ups but that almost makes it more interesting trying to figure out the minute details. The model resolution will never accurately depict it but it gives us some guidance in the potential. I wish folks could witness it, as the meso-scale nature is pretty cool in these progged set-ups. Like every half mile can make a huge difference. That's why I chuckle when people talk about and remember a given winter event in which someone who got a few inches more than them *only* 10-20 miles away. That seems like every event here. 20 miles is a huge distance and you could see snowfall double and then decrease to zero even within those 20 miles up this way. There are events with a 3 foot gradient over even 10-15 miles when its ripping 30-35dbz for 18 hours. That winter FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 For every time you post that image, I'm posting a loop of a CCB not going past Okemo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 Scott vs Scott, Everyone has there favorites and duds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 1 hour ago, dendrite said: Long winter incoming. Unfortunately probably not weather wise. 5 post option, with a xanax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 36 minutes ago, dryslot said: Scott vs Scott, Everyone has there favorites and duds That year it was all of us against him and Jspin lol. It's all good. We live in different winter climo zones so one would expect such discrepancies. I'm glad the ski season may start with a bang Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That year it was all of us against him and Jspin lol. It's all good. We live in different winter climo zones so one would expect such discrepancies. I'm glad the ski season may start with a bang Sunday. Its a positive start to this season up there for sure after last year.......lol, Start out in elevated areas and then move it east to the coastline going forward into December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That year it was all of us against him and Jspin lol. It's all good. We live in different winter climo zones so one would expect such discrepancies. I'm glad the ski season may start with a bang Sunday. We were all torching 2 weeks later. I'm glad I didn't have any snow on the ground at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: We were all torching 2 weeks later. I'm glad I didn't have any snow on the ground at that point. Dreadful that winter, Ended up with 42.3" here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 2 hours ago, powderfreak said: 18z GFS is not tossed... 24" for Mansfield and up to 30" for Jay Peak and alex at Bretton Woods over the 10 day period. Upslope white dream. First event still looks real good, we'll see if that holds as we go into the weekend. Most of this is snow for the mountains. Thank you for posting that... would make for some construction challenges on my new cabin, but I'm pretty sure I'd be too happy to worry about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 lol for dryslot a dreadful winter is 42.3", while a dreadful winter for Harwich is 0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 Congrats to the west side of the Berkshire Mountains on the 00z NAM on the 21st of November, upsloping snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 Yeah I really hope the Sunday through Tuesday stuff does well up north. It would be cool to see a good early start to the season there. There should be more chances after that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 Will when should I start paying attention to potential storms in terms of snow for this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 Congrats to the west slopes of the Berkshires this weekend for some major snow potential, wouldn't be surprised to see 12" amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 1 hour ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Will when should I start paying attention to potential storms in terms of snow for this year? For the Cape? Probably another month. Lol. Maybe you'll get lucky before that. Tough time of the year down there...a ton of stuff has to be just right for accumulating snow. Flakes are a bit easier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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