Hazey Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 I won't get excited until James starts a thread about it...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 11 minutes ago, Hazey said: I won't get excited until James starts a thread about it...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro ensembles are a bit blockier in Hudson Bay and NE Canada too in the LR...obviously cold is marginal, but it's a pattern that could produce something. Certainly beats a full-on blowtorch pattern. We step down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: We step down. it may never snow again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 The models have an incredibly stormy look. If I had to be picky for me, I'd like a little more money in the bank (cold). But whatever, I'd role the dice. Good to see a stormy look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 I thought the eps has been showing subtle improvements over time. I'm pretty encouraged for December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The models have an incredibly stormy look. If I had to be picky for me, I'd like a little more money in the bank (cold). But whatever, I'd role the dice. Good to see a stormy look. It's a good block for storms...the Hudson Bay block has always been a good spot. If this was even 3-4 weeks later, it probably wouldn't matter that we don't have cross polar cold source. Homebrew would be enough. But in late Nov/early Dec we may struggle...but it sure beats what the pattern would look like with a positive NAO and that N PAC look. We'd be in banana hammocks and speedos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 14 minutes ago, weathafella said: I thought the eps has been showing subtle improvements over time. I'm pretty encouraged for December. It's happening well before then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 35 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It's happening well before then Weren't you canceling winter like 72 hours ago? Now it's all good in the hood again for November snows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 25 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Weren't you canceling winter like 72 hours ago? Now it's all good in the hood again for November snows? Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 Guys, this potential storm for Thanksgiving Day improves by the six hour model cycle. Also GFS has a lobe of vorticity wrap around the H5 low over Northern New England and swings the vort max through NH and MA and gives MA including Cape Cod some snow flakes late Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 18z GFS shows a clipper system passing through the Flow for the 25-26th of November, this could be our first true snow threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 18z GFS shows a 216 hour clipper over the state of OH, moves through PA and delivers snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 It might be suppressed this run, which all depends on the PV that moves into the Maritimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: 18z GFS shows a 216 hour clipper over the state of OH, moves through PA and delivers snow Moral of the story...potentially stormy. Details = lalaland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 That is true Dendrite, GFS is suppressed with the clipper, but with an improving PNA and a negative NAO/AO combination, I am expecting major blocking to allow that clipper to amplify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: That is true Dendrite, GFS is suppressed with the clipper, but with an improving PNA and a negative NAO/AO combination, I am expecting major blocking to allow that clipper to amplify. The clipper might not even be there next run. I wouldn't sweat day 9-10 storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 Has that newer poster who disliked acronyms been on lately? The timing of the modeled potential event seems similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 30 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Link? Yeah sorry it was more like 5-6 days ago instead. Go back about 7 pages. Close to a November meltdown after the weeklies came out, wondering if your 1.9" in October would be the largest of the season, Will has stopped posting, winter is done, etc stuff like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 Yes but clippers will be quite frequent this year with the La NIna and +PDO in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Has that newer poster who disliked acronyms been on lately? The timing of the modeled potential event seems similar You mean Nickolas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 Our first shot at a cold air snowstorm potential looks to be the 26/27th of November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 Weeklies are pretty good for first half of December...lot of blocking. Even hints at some -EPO cold...not huge, but at least a little bit of cross polar to refresh things. Hudson block is pretty nice though and it looks stormy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 tonight's discussion by box just mentions a frontal passage and a chance of showers wed night/thurs and a day ago it sounded like the sky was falling lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 Will, does it show the clipper for the 27th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Will, does it show the clipper for the 27th? Weeklies show a mean 7 day pattern, not individual storms. I couldn't care less about the storm on the 27th...it is 10 days out. If you get fixated on specific threats that far out, you mostly just end up chasing ghosts. Something could certainly happen, but it is usually not like the models depict. It could be like 500 miles in either direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 This monster cold air mass in place over eastern Ontario and western Quebec could lead to our first accumulating snow to the coastline on the 27th of November, if the clipper system is true to form and amplifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 Ok WIll, I only ask because the teleconnections support blocking and a PNA ridge pattern out west. That certainly means a cold dump of fresh arctic air and plus a coastal storm chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Ok WIll, I only ask because the teleconnections support blocking and a PNA ridge pattern out west. That certainly means a cold dump of fresh arctic air and plus a coastal storm chance. We don't have an arctic airmass though....the airmass is a stale polar variety because of the Pacific firehose. It might be cold enough for snow, but it's going to be a lot tougher than if we had a fresh arctic airmass with 850 temps below -10C preceding the storm. The weeklies show a bit more potential for some arctic air in December...not a huge signal, but some ridging appearing over AK...but the dominant features are still the Hudson/NE Canada blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 The airmass is around -6 to -12C in the cold source region and with a polar jet clipper, we could see our first chance at snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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