Lava Rock Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 31 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah that's a huge flip and good to see. Need that cold shot to get in as early as possible for snowmaking. Fairly decent upslope snow event here...prints a foot for Jay Peak. they'll report 18" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 On 11/13/2016 at 11:03 AM, Typhoon Tip said: Not sure why I can't get rid of this quote box or type anywhere else or why it says "required" on the box. this is not a TT quote. I love how the 6Z GFS retrogrades that xstorm all the way from Nova Scotia to the UP of Michigan. Odds are that doesn't stick around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 Clearing cache or the forum cookies may help. I have trouble deleting the quote box sometimes on IOS, but have no issue on a PC. But yeah, it's an annoying bug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 17, 2016 Author Share Posted November 17, 2016 36 minutes ago, dendrite said: Clearing cache or the forum cookies may help. I have trouble deleting the quote box sometimes on IOS, but have no issue on a PC. But yeah, it's an annoying bug. I copy content to Clipboard then log out/log in anew. It appears to be tied to user session because the new log in immediately unbinds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 We extreme!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 17, 2016 Author Share Posted November 17, 2016 ... for those that have been paying attention to this... The colder/stormier signal for the month's closing 1/3 or 1/4 has taken a hit. Not sure if it's just noise, but the GEFs (EPS notwithstanding..) has lost the multi-day -EPO ... (What can we cry - sometimes that happens) by actually reversing the phase of the index entirely in the forecast. It doesn't necessarily 86 the whole idea for the 20th through the end of the month, but... it does lower confidence some. The problem is, the EPO cooperation is hugely useful in setting up conveyor(s) that pipe the AO domain's cold releases over the N/A continent in November. The collection of Mets (perhaps) simply don't notice that time-dependence as readily post the 15th of December, because any given +PNA and/or -NAO modulations can tap "home grown" chill from interior N-central Canadian shield. This early in the season, however, when the native hemispheric cryosphere is weakly established, -NAO may bring some challenges because the home grown stuff is...blase and still susceptible to Lakes, bear ground and even ocean influences. Time of year aside, -AO with tandem +EPO tends to off load cold over Asia.. We have had this new interval of -AO index mode progged for some time, and no sooner does the curve tip and begin that advertised descent, the GEFs derived -EPO goes positive. wah wah wahhh. You know - as far as where we've come over the last 30 days... it is possible that a sort of seasonal persistence is setting up to pound that northern Eurasia to Siberian arc with early winter fair...while we watch repeating El Nino-like troughs slam into the west and smear out through the Rockies regions for some time to come. The whole while, teleconnectors flagging x-y-z reasons to be hopeful that an x-y-z extended is about to flip, correct back toward what amounts to a base-line butt bang to winter weather enthusiasts (sorry, incorporating some dark humor to convey frustration to the snowy users there). As a side note: I was also noticing that the latest drought numbers are highlighting the SE U.S. more so as of late... That's kind of like a soil reflection of what the atmosphere is doing... persisting with ridging there. There is still usefulness to a strong -NAO this early in the season. ...it's not zero by any stretch. I just don't like the EPO being positive because that connotes deep layer westerly component winds through the NE Pac/Alaskan region(s) and well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 4 hours ago, Lava Rock said: they'll report 18" So will Lunenburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 Here comes the Euro for T-day...this could be interesting in another frame or two. Still a ways out of course...mostly just model fodder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: ... for those that have been paying attention to this... The colder/stormier signal for the month's closing 1/3 or 1/4 has taken a hit. Not sure if it's just noise, but the GEFs (EPS notwithstanding..) has lost the multi-day -EPO ... (What can we cry - sometimes that happens) by actually reversing the phase of the index entirely in the forecast. It doesn't necessarily 86 the whole idea for the 20th through the end of the month, but... it does lower confidence some. The problem is, the EPO cooperation is hugely useful in setting up conveyor(s) that pipe the AO domain's cold releases over the N/A continent in November. The collection of Mets (perhaps) simply don't notice that time-dependence as readily post the 15th of December, because any given +PNA and/or -NAO modulations can tap "home grown" chill from interior N-central Canadian shield. This early in the season, however, when the native hemispheric cryosphere is weakly established, -NAO may bring some challenges because the home grown stuff is...blase and still susceptible to Lakes, bear ground and even ocean influences. Time of year aside, -AO with tandem +EPO tends to off load cold over Asia.. We have had this new interval of -AO index mode progged for some time, and no sooner does the curve tip and begin that advertised descent, the GEFs derived -EPO goes positive. wah wah wahhh. You know - as far as where we've come over the last 30 days... it is possible that a sort of seasonal persistence is setting up to pound that northern Eurasia to Siberian arc with early winter fair...while we watch repeating El Nino-like troughs slam into the west and smear out through the Rockies regions for some time to come. The whole while, teleconnectors flagging x-y-z reasons to be hopeful that an x-y-z extended is about to flip, correct back toward what amounts to a base-line butt bang to winter weather enthusiasts (sorry, incorporating some dark humor to convey frustration to the snowy users there). As a side note: I was also noticing that the latest drought numbers are highlighting the SE U.S. more so as of late... That's kind of like a soil reflection of what the atmosphere is doing... persisting with ridging there. There is still usefulness to a strong -NAO this early in the season. ...it's not zero by any stretch. I just don't like the EPO being positive because that connotes deep layer westerly component winds through the NE Pac/Alaskan region(s) and well... Looks like I picked the right year to spend $1000 on ski passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 Looks like a cold rain as it gets a bit too warm just off the deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 Getting dangerously close to an interior SNE Fir Flattener. Loving the colder trends each run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 Shade too warm for mostly snow on T-day night and next Friday on Euro...but close call. System kind of cuts off too much and the cold air supply dries out. But that is def worth keeping half an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 Man if that block from Monday stayed and hung around...that would be a condo collapser. Still nice to see a more active pattern anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 That is a Sultan Signal too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Here comes the Euro for T-day...this could be interesting in another frame or two. Still a ways out of course...mostly just model fodder. If we had more cold air around, MECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 I'm always skeptical that cold air will be vacated that quickly in a deepening trough...even if it gets cutoff. I remember the models tried to do the same thing with the Nov 7, 2012 storm too before it trended it a bit colder. It cutoff and models just vaporized the cold in it until we got within 3 days. Now this thing is like 7 days out, so it's not even really worth parsing over details, but it is just something I wanted to note in case we see this solution happen on more runs in the next couple days. I think it is already obvious we would need a lot of things to go right to get accumulating snow in SNE and even lower elevation CNE out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 Ha, if only Novie cutoffs happened in January. Another s/w coming in to try and Fuji Dance with that cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: If we had more cold air around, MECS That QPF pattern is what nightmares are made of lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 I can see 925 and it gets a bit mild. It's like how this time of year you can have cold ageo flow at the srfc at 35F and the source region for parcels at 925-850 are still over the warm waters, so you have a bit of a warm tongue that happens in early season. Like Will said...not to get detailed here..but that's what it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: That QPF pattern is what nightmares are made of lol. I know of a couple posters that would approve................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: I know of a couple posters that would approve................... I saw this topic was getting "hot" with replies and was like man maybe they are talking about the ULL and upslope snows there... then saw the rest of the EURO run and was like ohh now it makes sense haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: I saw this topic was getting "hot" with replies and was like man maybe they are talking about the ULL and upslope snows there... then saw the rest of the EURO run and was like ohh now it makes sense haha. Have not really looked at anything model wise of any sorts so far this season with many projects getting done and with hunting season here now, But usually start to take more interest around the thanksgiving period looking for some snow for tracking purposes, This cold rain could dampen the end of the hunting season though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 48 minutes ago, dryslot said: Have not really looked at anything model wise of any sorts so far this season with many projects getting done and with hunting season here now, But usually start to take more interest around the thanksgiving period looking for some snow for tracking purposes, This cold rain could dampen the end of the hunting season though Looking even farther out, I see four days of cold spitting rain Nov. 28-Dec. 1 for tromping thru the woods during our green certification audit. We usually catch some "interesting" wx for these field tours - two years ago the early Nov. birch bender downeast made for tough (or impossible) traveling. Lots of time for things to change, but I don't see any bluebird 50s during that week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 17, 2016 Author Share Posted November 17, 2016 heh, for me that operational Euro evolution across the Holiday exemplifies beautifully what i was trying to elucidate earlier; it happens when an early season NAO tanks without an antecedent cold load into Canada. give that another month and the 'home grown' cold would probably be a slam dunker. not so sure about pre- giggedy day. i outlined that earliers... boom! run comes out and you have fetid polar misery mist amid awhile very obviously "blocky" pattern. aka, wasted pattern. f EPO man... what an a-hole that said, i have also seen time and time again (usually it's a phenomenon that happens moreso in model lead up times in spring - ) systems be modeled with +2 and + 4 C to cap off the critical thickness depths at this sort of time lead, then as the system nears... you loose say 10th of a degree C per cycle until it ends up being an isothermal blue glumper. it's almost as though the models correct marginal scenarios up out in time. interesting buuut, we're getting ahead of ourselves. this is not likely to even look like this on the next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 Warm tongues and cold loads..... must be that time of year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 EPS is a bit colder for that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 It may trend more towards a colder solution or at least hold what cold there is in longer for more of a wintry type of precip, Its still out there but worth a casual look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 We colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 Euro ensembles are a bit blockier in Hudson Bay and NE Canada too in the LR...obviously cold is marginal, but it's a pattern that could produce something. Certainly beats a full-on blowtorch pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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