Ginx snewx Posted October 29, 2016 Share Posted October 29, 2016 GEFS 2m temp anomalies, we step Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 29, 2016 Share Posted October 29, 2016 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Nice, you must miss those miller As that have been scarce over the past several winters then. I sure as heck do up here. Lol yeah I do. Man we get nailed when those lows track through the Gulf and up the east coast. Our biggest issue is that the Nao helps us a lot and that's been missing the last several winters. We also do well in NW flow snows. That's really where we get the majority of our snowfall from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 29, 2016 Share Posted October 29, 2016 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: whats your annual average, thats serious elevation Our average is usually around 40 to 50 inches at my exact location . There are locations in the most favorable areas that get up to 80 to 90 inches. They get nailed big time by upslope snows. Pretty good for being in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 29, 2016 Share Posted October 29, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 29, 2016 Share Posted October 29, 2016 1 hour ago, Met1985 said: Our average is usually around 40 to 50 inches at my exact location . There are locations in the most favorable areas that get up to 80 to 90 inches. They get nailed big time by upslope snows. Pretty good for being in the SE. Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 29, 2016 Share Posted October 29, 2016 4 hours ago, Snow88 said: That's zonal flow at H500 and most of the conus would be N to AN with that look. Way too much Pacific influence... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 29, 2016 Share Posted October 29, 2016 1 hour ago, jbenedet said: That's zonal flow at H500 and most of the conus would be N to AN with that look. Way too much Pacific influence... Did you see the surface? No way it's above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 29, 2016 Share Posted October 29, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 6 hours ago, jbenedet said: That's zonal flow at H500 and most of the conus would be N to AN with that look. Way too much Pacific influence... Um no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 Chilly day tomorrow AWT with highs staying in the 40's. Cold shots continue to overproduce this fall.. good sign, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Chilly day tomorrow AWT with highs staying in the 40's. Cold shots continue to overproduce this fall.. good sign, Overproduce? It's modeled. Where do you come up with this stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 Just now, CoastalWx said: Overproduce? It's modeled. Where do you come up with this stuff. It had been talked about as being mild and in the 50;s.. All of a sudden models started going colder. Chilly Helloween Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 meh, 40s for trick or treat time. Like most Halloweens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 This arguing over temps for kids out trick-or-treating is ridiculous. Interesting night temp-wise. I had a midnight low of 47*, climbed to 59* at 2:30, now down to 51*. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 Soaker tonight with a good .50 i-90 south. maybe even a bang of thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 I'm still unsure of mid month. Trends have been stronger with GOAK low so I'm a bit skeptical of a change that quick. It's very Nino like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'm still unsure of mid month. Trends have been stronger with GOAK low so I'm a bit skeptical of a change that quick. It's very Nino like. Thinking it may be longer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Thinking it may be longer? I'm thinking Pacific needs more respect. I'm not sold exactly on what the weeklies or earlier ensembles have. I'm not saying torch, but I think some expect winter to come after next week. Lets pump the brakes and enjoy a step down process. We shall see. The thing about November is that you can easily have well timed events, so an ensemble mean doesn't always catch these features. Look what just happened a few days ago. Also.....climo. November is not a wintry month. Maybe some in NE CT need to be reminded that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I'm thinking Pacific needs more respect. I'm not sold exactly on what the weeklies or earlier ensembles have. I'm not saying torch, but I think some expect winter to come after next week. Lets pump the brakes and enjoy a step down process. We shall see. The thing about November is that you can easily have well timed events, so an ensemble mean doesn't always catch these features. Look what just happened a few days ago. Also.....climo. November is not a wintry month. Maybe some in NE CT need to be reminded that. I definitely agree. It's a bit premature to expect winter to begin in 2 weeks. a continued stepdown with possible chances towards the end of the month is more realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 You can have a great winter pattern in November and most won't see snow. Esp coast. But it def looks colder with an Aleutian low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 Who was expecting winter to set in? All anyone should think about is a better than avg chance of white Tgiving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Who was expecting winter to set in? All anyone should think about is a better than avg chance of white Tgiving People such as yourself who start touting white thanksgiving and what not, start to confuse others should it not happen. That's all. I'm not sold on the ridge bridge weeklies have from the west coast to Greenland. However, it would not surprise me that we live in our own little corner with some shots of colder weather. That's when you can have well timed events. All I am saying, is that don't be shocked if things get pushed back a bit. Nothing more, nothing less. I've felt this way for a little while. I see no reason why it should cause panic or somehow be a hint at winter. It's unfortunate I have to even make that disclaimer, but you know some will always go that route. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Overproduce? It's modeled. Where do you come up with this stuff. Mild and in the 50s. BDL normal high 58. Hold on, I have to cite ORH too, 54. Basically 50s is near or below normal. A true salesman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 Lol, cause panic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: But it def looks colder with an Aleutian low. The buzz about a sudden pattern shift around mid month is premature. The irony is, if we look much closer in time (days 4-7) an Aluetian Low takes shape --as you pointed out-- and the UL long wave features and teleconnections look quite favorable for BN and active in the NE. Beyond that, though, the LR shows the AL breaking down and reverting to a more zonal, PAC influenced pattern. Anyone wanting early season snowfall in New England should be looking at the period from days 4-7 and forget about mid month until the former has passed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 I will say if you can get some higher heights out west, you can work with Novie wavelengths and get an early season interior event for sure. You don't need massive +PNA or -EPO. The shorter lengths still can do it. My earlier point was based on recent trends comparing forecasts in the Pacific. I'd probably slow any larger changes down just a bit. We've seen it before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 Just now, CoastalWx said: I will say if you can get some higher heights out west, you can work with Novie wavelengths and get an early season interior event for sure. You don't need massive +PNA or -EPO. The shorter lengths still can do it. My earlier point was based on recent trends comparing forecasts in the Pacific. I'd probably slow any larger changes down just a bit. We've seen it before. Not uncommon at all for ensembles to rush a larger scale change. I remember we saw this in 2010. Ensembles at first were showing much colder pattern around 11/20 but we said it was probably rushed and to wait until probably after Tday. Turned out correct as we didn't get the sustained cold until early December. (And the snow didn't come for quite some time after that) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 30, 2016 Author Share Posted October 30, 2016 This is one of the more polarizing examples I can recall over recent years where the GEFs entire family of contributory ensembles feeding into the derivatives at both CDC and CPC, are out of sync with the operational model. I mentioned this at the start of this tread ... that was the case (more at less), but as of last night? wow. - the ensemble mean would bring winter in abruptly by the 10th of the month incoming; yet the operational is completely off into a different galaxy, with broken wave lengths and troubles with even a conherent long wave pattern anywhere on our side of the hemisphere - including the Pacific ocean. Recommend the weighter more consistent ensemble mean .. with perhaps less emphasis on magnitude: not sure I buy an ~ (-1 AO; -2 NAO; +3 PNA) tandem system of teleconnectors and the implication of what that "could" mean out right. If taken verbatim, that's probably a deep snow pack before thanks giving. These agencies have not only been hammering for some time, but they go out two weeks ... getting heftier in cold signal the whole way... Heh - we'll see. I figure we are one recurving west Pac forcing event from this igniting a hemispheric nuclear winter. I'm amazed though that the operational versions from 00z got even MORE polarized and the ensemble means was even MORE in their regards ... really other ends of the pool. Watch, the dead split average verifies which could not be more dullard and banally average/ no events ...no snow...seasonal excuse to formulate another hobby. Nothings impossible... Barring cabin fever weather ... I still have seen one or two cycles of operational runs (respectively) go more cold and +PNAP -like, while the means don't waver. Fwiw - the consistency is tugging in favor of the cold teleconnectors here. GEFs still = 10th ... Will noted the other day the Euro mean may be closer to the 20th or something... Either way, even though I'm willing to tone down the teleconnector implication some, I'd be surprised if this Novie end the way it's destined to begin. Note, the PNA is so strongly positive enough to 'pull' the EPO index down (they are negatively correlated over the longer climate mode). That means we may not even need the -EPO to tap the cold sap here if that continues. Also, PNA's tend to lead -EPOs due to typical wave migration/R-waves. Lots to consider... but weather it looks so out of doors now or not, there's a wild storm in the 'signals' - interesting.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 4 hours ago, CoastalWx said: meh, 40s for trick or treat time. Like most Halloweens. I think the exciting part is that it is actually feeling like a normal late fall and start of winter. Cold, or at least chilly, Halloween. Cool rainy days, an early bit of snow, lots of frosts and the occassional freeze, and long range signs of a turn to winter sometime in November. We deserve a snowy November-December couplet and maybe we get that this year. After the late, short (although sometimes exciting) winters recently, I am ready for a more spread out, perhaps NNE CNE type of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Not uncommon at all for ensembles to rush a larger scale change. I remember we saw this in 2010. Ensembles at first were showing much colder pattern around 11/20 but we said it was probably rushed and to wait until probably after Tday. Turned out correct as we didn't get the sustained cold until early December. (And the snow didn't come for quite some time after that) I remember moving into my first house in 2004 and we had a nice 1-2" snowfall around the first week of Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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