powderfreak Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Why open the windows at 60? My own pet peeve of getting fresh air into the house whenever possible. We have some big south facing floor to ceiling windows that absolutely roast my living room on sunny days like this too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 EPS is better with the ridging near Hudson Bay. That would be probably enough for an interior chance or two. I wish the pacific would allow for colder air, but it's actually quite the Nino look. Still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 ...What's the long range...T'Day looking like for the region at this point. Temps? Precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 5 hours ago, Spanks45 said: Went from 23.4 right after sunrise to 51.3 right now... GYX soundings was like an 800 ft inversion. Mix that temp down from 800 feet and you have about +12C at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 5 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Downsloping warmth can def be kind of "fake" in summer...or late spring especially just before or during leaf-out. I've seen close to a 10F difference between ORH and some of the torch spots in SE MA if winds are right during those periods. Also, you can get that faux warmth in early spring...highs in the 60F range when 850 temps are around 0C. You'll put up a solidly above average high even if the 850 temps are below average. The term fake in this instance to me though is more to describe how the surface is somewhat disconnected from the airmass aloft. It isn't representing the overall airmass. Radiational cooling does this to the extreme, but there's other examples like the ones listed above. Right. Fake temps would be reporting your unshielded valley reading every morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApacheTrout Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 4 hours ago, CoastalWx said: It's the second example. Fake heat to me is implying a strong deviation from the overall atmosphere which you don't necessarily get around here. It takes some special circumstances like time of year, atmospheric conditions etc just to achieve a day a little AN normal from 850 temps a little BN. I don't see how people can argue there is a massive disconnect between these early morning temps and the true warmth that the atmosphere has and will inflict on the surface shortly after sunrise. These cool mornings are exactly that. Hiding and masking the true column of the atmosphere. Some days, the surface conditions never match the true column of the atmosphere. There were a few days in a row last winter when temps where supposed to climb well into the low to mid 50s but never did make it past 33F. The breezes were calm to light here, but in towns 10 miles to the east, a strong wind mixed the atmosphere and some places hit 60F. I certainly wouldn't call those cold days 'fake.' I'd like to throw my lot in with those deriding the word 'fake' on a science forum, when the measurements are indeed accurate and reflective of conditions on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 Fake, masking, not representative...whatever makes you sleep better at night. It's not hard to see what Kevin meant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Fake, masking, not representative...whatever makes you sleep better at night. It's not hard to see what Kevin meant. Lol exciting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 Deceptive might be a good word. Very shallow cold from rad cooling is deceptive...you wake up to a 23F reading on a mid November morning when you go scrape the car and you aren't expecting a 64F high. So it was a deceptive reading...still real...but not representing the airmass as a whole which tends to reveal itself during the daytime mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Fake, masking, not representative...whatever makes you sleep better at night. It's not hard to see what Kevin meant. lol yeah if it didn't happen at his house then it didn't happen ;). 16 minutes ago, ApacheTrout said: Some days, the surface conditions never match the true column of the atmosphere. There were a few days in a row last winter when temps where supposed to climb well into the low to mid 50s but never did make it past 33F. The breezes were calm to light here, but in towns 10 miles to the east, a strong wind mixed the atmosphere and some places hit 60F. I certainly wouldn't call those cold days 'fake.' That's a good example...CAD when it's in the 50s above 3000ft and ZR in the lowest couple hundred feet. There are certainly times when the SFC doesn't match the atmosphere as a whole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 7 minutes ago, powderfreak said: lol yeah if it didn't happen at his house then it didn't happen ;). That's a good example...CAD when it's in the 50s above 3000ft and ZR in the lowest couple hundred feet. There are certainly times when the SFC doesn't match the atmosphere as a whole. An airmass that makes the pony-os cry for mama at 4k, but at least you can scrape the frost off the Subaru. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 Should be a short, but potent rain event tomorrw aftn, maybe even a tstm. It gets rather unstable and lots of forcing from strong LLJ advecting in anomalous warmth and moisture. Seems like CT in central and western MA get the comma head and then maybe CC from low level forcing due to strong LLJ. Even a good coastal front seperating temps near 40 inland to near 60 on CC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: An airmass that makes the pony-os cry for mama at 4k, but at least you can scrape the frost off the Subaru. lol I don't care one way or another if it's fake or false or whatever. 32F this morning at 4kft. The torch was 1500-2500ft up this way. Seemed more shallow even further south. Its CAD essentially in terms of a sounding. But we have fake snow too, so sometimes I wonder if any of its real...or if it's just the peyote lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 It might not be representative, but it was still cold in some places this morning 25 degrees is 25 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 23.4F here for a low... definitely cold (and very frosty). Frost and a little bit of leftover snow still on the shady sides of my driveway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApacheTrout Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 I'd go with 'short-lived'. I like 'masking', too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 Weeklies continue with anti-nina. Week 3 and 4 have a decent Hudson Bay ridging with week 4 retrograding GOAK low closer to more of a Aleutian low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 Just now, ApacheTrout said: I'd go with 'short-lived'. I like 'masking', too. The term of "Fake cold" originated way back on eastern during the winter when some people thought the models might be underestimating cold airmasses before a storm due to radiational cooling readings. These temps obviously had zero impact on the storm's ability to produce snow since the rest of the column was too warm to support it. Since then, it's sort of been applied to all the rad temps. Having experienced the context in which it was first used, the term makes sense to me. But I get why others hate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 38 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Should be a short, but potent rain event tomorrw aftn, maybe even a tstm. It gets rather unstable and lots of forcing from strong LLJ advecting in anomalous warmth and moisture. Seems like CT in central and western MA get the comma head and then maybe CC from low level forcing due to strong LLJ. Even a good coastal front seperating temps near 40 inland to near 60 on CC. Sneaky -3 U wind and +2 V wind anomalies riding up this way. HRRR is actually much farther west with the decent rains, and showing some signs of that coastal front enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 4 hours ago, powderfreak said: lol. It's not even an arguement, but it felt really cold last night and my heating bill will reflect that as did my car when I had to spend 10 minutes just to get the key in the frosted lock. I swear there had to be a quarter inch of the most solid frost out on everything (almost rime like). Real or fake in weather terms, it has a real impact lol. I'd rather it not because I don't want to heat my house when 700ft higher it's like 45-50F like a July morning. I'd argue 25F and calm requires similar energy to heat as 35F and a strong wind. A home sorta has a layer of "body heat" like a human with a wind chill effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Sneaky -3 U wind and +2 V wind anomalies riding up this way. HRRR is actually much farther west with the decent rains, and showing some signs of that coastal front enhancement. Yep, juicy little bugger. Too bad the storm wasn't 6 hrs later..tides would be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Weeklies continue with anti-nina. Week 3 and 4 have a decent Hudson Bay ridging with week 4 retrograding GOAK low closer to more of a Aleutian low. Is this good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: An airmass that makes the pony-os cry for mama at 4k, but at least you can scrape the frost off the Subaru. Maybe the Pony O's are real, long, and spectacular, but the cold this morning could not have been more unreal and not spectacular. Fake manufactured cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 27 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Sneaky -3 U wind and +2 V wind anomalies riding up this way. HRRR is actually much farther west with the decent rains, and showing some signs of that coastal front enhancement. Any tidal worries? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 26 minutes ago, dendrite said: I'd argue 25F and calm requires similar energy to heat as 35F and a strong wind. A home sorta has a layer of "body heat" like a human with a wind chill effect. I have to explain this over and over at work when some financial analyst quotes NWS high lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Any tidal worries? Mostly meh. It looks like it's going to miss the biggest tides, but we should get some high water flooding. A surge could really have done a number though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Mostly meh. It looks like it's going to miss the biggest tides, but we should get some high water flooding. A surge could really have done a number though. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 25 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Is this good? If it's cold enough...lol. It would be a stormy look which at any moment...someone will comment on the 18z GFS. So with that look...in and up is the place to be...but of course nobody can nail details down. You can always get a well timed airmass to help the coast too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 have learned deftly how to maintain higher positive pressures inside the building especially when wind and cold combine. For example during Febs zero high winds day every facility on our 2100 acre campus some 7 million square ft had a freeze issue , my 360 k building none although 1 main kitchen faucet did have a little slush. A 0 degree day with no wind is not nearly a threat as one with 30 plus sustained Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 Low of 30F here this morning with a high of 64F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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