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Novie is near, the first un-official month of SNE winter!

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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The one teleconnector signal that was missing ending October, for this first two weeks of November was the -EPO.

I don't think that is a coincidence we stayed warm. 

The cold loading into N/A failed off the original layout of a -AO/-NAO/+PNA that was hammered by the teleconnector progs, at both agencies: CDC, and CPC. 

It is interesting that the cold did end up on the other side of the Hemisphere - anomalously so.  The EPO seems almost as though an indicator of where the "gates" will open so many times I lose count.  If you got a coherent -AO dive showing up across multiple agencies ... and the EPO remains positive across that same time span? Just maybe that's a clue that the cold isn't for you. However, dive the AO with a concerted EPO and that's pretty clear indication an interval of Global cold conveyor is pointing into the Canadian Shield. 

It didn't help that the NAO turned out not to nadir nearly as deeply as it was progged to do so at CPC. In fact, ... looking back along the curve since mid September, it's recent fall and rise was very trivial.  It really looks more like that index' handling was a whopper error.  The CDC argues it did better, so, maybe the models latched on to some physical processes - if perhaps just too much so... 'Sides, those low level wind flux anomalies the CDC uses in their grids for how they calculate the teleconnectors strike me as less than useful when it come to the more telling question over what's "guiding" flow (aka, pattern/pattern changes.  ...). In the winter, I've tended to emphasize the CPC for that reason - though I don't ignore the CDC altogether.  I also believe in my heart of hearts that the EPO is N/A primary cold signal, and that the NAO is a secondary modulator - before you knee jerk react, keep in mind that secondary modulation is second in command, in the sense that it is still a ginormous factor. (Sorry for that, but people seem to do one of two things when you "dare impugn the NAO", don't reply, or get actually offended. They're as insufferable as Patriot's Football fans..)

Moving forward, there is another fall in the never ending irregular up down yo-yo AO emerging for the last 10-15 days of the month.  Only this time, there IS a -EPO concurrent.  It is my strong hunch, this time Canada gets colder ...  that sort of needs to happen first before we can cash in on winter dividends between ORD-BOS-Halifax, btw. Also, I'm not so sure that trough amplitude for D8-9 fantasy is purely fantasy - there is pretty clear PNA jig showing up here, and this sort of jolt in the index look is more typically associated with some sort of amplitude over the U.S. when it shows up.  

pna_nov_2016.jpg

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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...also, in continuance of those ideas... there is subtle but real nearly perfect 'relay scenario' in the EPO/NAO arc per the recent derivatives, as well.

It's roughtly the 18th - the 26th... and it is definitely of the cold wave variety.

The EPO dives off it's thrown into the toiling underworld of the rebel alliance, and then about 5 days later .. .the NAO also slopes down negative.  That's basically all code for, the EPO loads, then the NAO colds. 

We'll see if there is some persistence for that particular signal moving forward.

I still would be surprised if this month ended how it began - I've said that a couple few times and still think so.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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  The EPS have a period where heights temporarily go + anomalous in AK which in turn drops a good cold shot into the US day 7 and gets a good low going through here at that time. The thing is, the Pacific goes back to hostile again with a pretty large area of lower heights from AK into the GOAK. The 6z GEFS on the other hand have a less hostile Pacific with some ridging in western NAMR and a bit of a -NAO ridge trying to develop near the Davis Straits. Lately, the Pacific has been winning out and destroying everything, but if we can get some higher heights up north near and NE of Hudson Bay...it could work out late month for the interior anyways. I'm a little hesitant on buying the GEFS at this moment. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

  The EPS have a period where heights temporarily go + anomalous in AK which in turn drops a good cold shot into the US day 7 and gets a good low going through here at that time. The thing is, the Pacific goes back to hostile again with a pretty large area of lower heights from AK into the GOAK. The 6z GEFS on the other hand have a less hostile Pacific with some ridging in western NAMR and a bit of a -NAO ridge trying to develop near the Davis Straits. Lately, the Pacific has been winning out and destroying everything, but if we can get some higher heights up north near and NE of Hudson Bay...it could work out late month for the interior anyways. I'm a little hesitant on buying the GEFS at this moment. 

Heh, I guess for confidence it's a good thing to have the Euro cluster on the same page, if only in part or in whole - either way. 

I get the sense that the GEFs have been a bit routinely "more optimistic" about the Pacific from cycle to cycle ... sometimes not, sometimes very much so. We went through this about 4 or 5 days ago if you recall, the overnight ensemble derivatives out of the GEFs would have us epic by the 20th - hell I'd-a settled for half that appeal.   but, then two days later that evaporated... .now, sort of partially returns...

I dunno.  But, much of what "I" am talking about is also predicated on what these tools actually show.  We don't make this schit up; obviously this is always coming along contingent on the longer termed probabilities working out.  sometimes, like this last -AO bent over N/A and inserted a long one ...  the lower probability wins (Just ask Donald ;) ) But seriously, barring the 3 in 10 type lesser likely scenario working out, if people want snow and cryo - implications at all, having the EPS and GEFs derivative going taller over the NE Pac and surrounding medium should always be considered a good thing for you.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Heh, I guess for confidence it's a good thing to have the Euro cluster on the same page, if only in part or in whole - either way. 

I get the sense that the GEFs have been a bit routinely "more optimistic" about the Pacific from cycle to cycle ... sometimes not, sometimes very much so. We went through this about 4 or 5 days ago if you recall, the overnight ensemble derivatives out of the GEFs would have us epic by the 20th - hell I'd-a settled for half that appeal.   but, then two days later that evaporated... .now, sort of partially returns...

I dunno.  But, much of what "I" am talking about is also predicated on what these tools actually show.  We don't make this schit up; obviously this is always coming along contingent on the longer termed probabilities working out.  sometimes, like this last -AO bent over N/A and inserted a long one ...  the lower probability wins (Just ask Donald ;) ) But seriously, barring the 3 in 10 type lesser likely scenario working out, if people want snow and cryo - implications at all, having the EPS and GEFs derivative going taller over the NE Pac and surrounding medium should always be considered a good thing for you.

Well we have seen worse. I just looked back on December 2011 on ESRL. Oye vey.....what an abomination.  Just a blue and black hole from AK into Greenland. It will be interesting to revisit later this week and see how things look.  I think the key to the nail in the coffin is having those lower heights extend into the SW US. All our all out furnace regimes have featured that.  If you can keep heights a bit higher out west...you can at least get some split flow to hopefully time with a marginal airmass for something fun.  But overall, I'm not a big fan at all of the pattern....at least for my interests. However...the op runs at times show how it can wor,k if timed well. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well we have seen worse. I just looked back on December 2011 on ESRL. Oye vey.....what an abomination.  Just a blue and black hole from AK into Greenland. It will be interesting to revisit later this week and see how things look.  I think the key to the nail in the coffin is having those lower heights extend into the SW US. All our all out furnace regimes have featured that.  If you can keep heights a bit higher out west...you can at least get some split flow to hopefully time with a marginal airmass for something fun.  But overall, I'm not a big fan at all of the pattern....at least for my interests. However...the op runs at times show how it can wor,k if timed well. 

Oh, I completely agree with this (bold)!  ... 

bottom line, SE ridge = bullet in winter's heart.  Period. 

we can dig and dig and dig and dig, and ... factually, some rare compensating examples do exist... but if I were to venture a guess off the top of my head, I'd see there is about +.92 correlation coefficient that exists between the strength of the SE ridge and the length and width of the cosmic dildo.

I've opined diatribe after diatribe in past regarding scenarios where the ridge was even still there, if only 'suppressed' in a huge gradient buzz-saw ferocious wind regime, and it still finds a way to f-up a good coastal.  You just don't want that ridge, and the stuff you're talking about the digging into the SW - that playing with fire.

I don't mind heights being low there...no.  Many bigger continental events start out that way... But it has to actually eject out of the west/SW, and be at least periodically replaced by a roll-up ridge. 

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weathafella

weathafella

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32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Tippy locking in 12z GFS. LOL.

I second 

Meanwhile my wife and I are flying overseas Tuesday night.  Could be a rough minute or 2 after takeoff lol....by the time w return on thanksgiving day we will hopefully have some concrete ideas for at least the first half of December. 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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My car thermometer went up 14F over a period of less than two miles and still couldn't capture the rise.  Saw it go from 31F to 34F instantly when rising which I didnt even know it could do.

1500ft...46F

750ft...26F

Left the house with 26F on the car thermometer (24F at MVL for the low) with some of the thickest frost known to man, and 7 minutes later stepped out of my car at 46F which is like a relatively normal June morning temp.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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1 minute ago, MetHerb said:

It's no different than the downslopers in summer.  They bake while others don't.  Fake heat.

Not really.  We are talking anomalous warmth, not whether it's subjectively warm or not. It's torched out there.  You aren't getting fake heat with cold 850 temps in the summer downsloping from 1500ft hills.

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

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18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I love all those who can't stand the warmth, come out and defend their cubby holes. It's a torch. Taste it and deal with it.

I was actually quite surprised to see 27F this morning.  By the time I got to work a little ways away it was in the 40s.  Very shallow cold.  Not impressed

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