Typhoon Tip Posted November 12, 2016 Author Share Posted November 12, 2016 15 minutes ago, powderfreak said: First sub-zero wind chills of the season up on the hill. Pretty nasty to be sustained over 50mph and gusting in the 70s. It's behaving like a slow step down autumn. Heard tale of 1995-1996 analog but don't recall that autumn being this way That one flip decidedly colder around this time with solid sleet and snow event where I was at UML. Never turned back until mega thaw in late January. Anyway this seems much more uninterestingly severing whopper 2/10s of a degree by every 2.5 day rate of change. Yeah I admit we've seen better times ... In general, but honestly this is more like the Novies I remember as typical in my childhood. Technically that doesn't mean much no. But. Heh. Seems normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 Snowing nicely again. 29/17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 47 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's behaving like a slow step down autumn. Heard tale of 1995-1996 analog but don't recall that autumn being this way That one flip decidedly colder around this time with solid sleet and snow event where I was at UML. Never turned back until mega thaw in late January. Anyway this seems much more uninterestingly severing whopper 2/10s of a degree by every 2.5 day rate of change. Yeah I admit we've seen better times ... In general, but honestly this is more like the Novies I remember as typical in my childhood. Technically that doesn't mean much no. But. Heh. Seems normal. Yeah it's boring but I agree with you...step down like I think of November. Each cold shot is just a little colder than the last, and the "torches" are a little chillier than the one the week before. Mild pattern in the means but still has some solid cold shots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 12, 2016 Author Share Posted November 12, 2016 48 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah it's boring but I agree with you...step down like I think of November. Each cold shot is just a little colder than the last, and the "torches" are a little chillier than the one the week before. Mild pattern in the means but still has some solid cold shots. True. Altho next week is sort of weird. The warm up is perhaps a bit more aggressive but right in the middle of it a wet low meanders up the coast that cuts it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 Friday could hit 70 if Euro is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Friday could hit 70 if Euro is right Very warm Friday and Saturday. The Pacific is puke as far as the eye can see. Hopefully it changes in December. Meanwhile, Siberia has insane cold right now. When temps there are more than 25 degrees below normal, it's cold lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Very warm Friday and Saturday. The Pacific is puke as far as the eye can see. Yes. All guidance is showing ~10F+ above normal. Friday night into Saturday may not even fall below 50 in most places. It's easy to conceive 10F as a minimum departure given a southwesterly fetch stemming from the Gulf of Mexico, and background land/soil temps that are very warm throughout the eastern CONUS, which should only lead to modest airmass moderation by the time it makes it up here. This is a classic torch look for us up here, and I think records will be threatened based on how warm the whole eastern CONUS has been. 925 mb and 850 mb temps don't look all that impressive on the GFS, but I expect most guidance will be playing catch up --as they usually do-- out ahead of a robust cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 EC op would definitely push records. CON recs are lows 70s and similar setups required about 12C 850s for that. The euro is in that 12-14C range deeper into the ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 WNE looks dry in the medium and long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 Check out the 850 sequestration over Iowa...and blizzard for MN: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 18 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: WNE looks dry in the medium and long range. Shocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 Despite an overall bad Pacific, it does seem like after next weekend's warm spell....we step down again into something closer to November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 Rather have the warmth now rather than the winter time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 At least it's cold for my birthday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 12, 2016 Author Share Posted November 12, 2016 perhaps serviceable as a case study in why the mjo may be overrated .. i've always thought so - are in a minimum, it is not assessed/used the right way. it's no wonder over recent years, i don't read mention of it nearly as frequently as i used to back 10 or more years ago, coming out of ncep discussions... perhaps they've realized similarly. in fact, i think i have actually read discussions where they seemed to since then. what that is has to do with destructive vs constructive interference. Scott and Will and I have covered this in the past, but the idea is ... if the MJO is out of phase with the surrounding circulation medium, it's correlation falls apart. that's the short version of destructive interference. the mjo is like a 'booster' more than a singular forcing mechanism in that way. example, in positive pna, if the mjo then passes into phase 7-8-1-2 ... they 'constructively' align and both get amplified. but it's all still dealing with quantity of force ... if a super-nova of a wave plowed its way out of the marine sub-continent than sure...it may force the hemispheric hand. but, standard wave strengths appear to be conditionally correlated. anyway, the mjo has been progged for days to march through 7-8-1-2 in moderate strength, but we are only seeing a modest -EPO out here in time... it may yet strengthen in the guidance (we'll see). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 5 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Despite an overall bad Pacific, it does seem like after next weekend's warm spell....we step down again into something closer to November. We've already lost one winter month... That's a nice cold shot early next week though, and despite trying to bring back the Gulf of AK trough the EPS keeps 850 temps below 0 around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 Snowy day 10 if Euro is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Snowy day 10 if Euro is right Hate to indulge, but there is EPS support for a system in that window, so it's not just a GGW op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 0Z GFS is interesting. Sets up some nice blocking. Dreamy. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 Man, the wind is howling this morning. I hadn't expected that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 10 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Man, the wind is howling this morning. I hadn't expected that. Warmth cometh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 12 hours ago, OceanStWx said: Hate to indulge, but there is EPS support for a system in that window, so it's not just a GGW op run. Still there on overnight runs..just get thru this awful week and its over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Still there on overnight runs..just get thru this awful week and its over Eh, not sure I would use language like over with a lousy Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 13 hours ago, OceanStWx said: We've already lost one winter month... That's a nice cold shot early next week though, and despite trying to bring back the Gulf of AK trough the EPS keeps 850 temps below 0 around here. 06 gfs doesn't get H8 temps down to 0C or below in AUG until day 9. Glad it's the 06 gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 I guess if you can get split flow and some higher heights in Canada, it can work..especially inland. The 11-15 day on the EPS has some similarities to December 2012. So if you extrapolate that into December...it's serviceable in NNE and perhaps interior SNE. That's assuming Pacific does not get worse and the AO and NAO aren't raging positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Warmth cometh. I've recorded a 28mph gust already this morning--not too shabby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 Just rip that front thru Saturday and at least the 70's will be a thing of the past Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 The models toned back the warmth for now later this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 1 hour ago, moneypitmike said: I've recorded a 28mph gust already this morning--not too shabby. Pretty meh here. Nothing like Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The models toned back the warmth for now later this week. Backdoor in yer fanny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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