USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 Also winds increase along the coastline as the storm departs to 55mph gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 13 minutes ago, jbenedet said: That h500 of the Euro ensemble at hr 240 is a very warm look for us. We will have to see how amped up that cutter becomes but as is modeled now on most guidance, it looks to cut well west of us, meaning we go from way above normal to just normal as we never really get the backside cold. And then we would be primed to be on the warm side of the following wave. So basically as it looks to be right now, next week has a good shot at being well above normal in the Northeast US. So +3/4 is a torch, just needed clarification on the term. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Yea but Scott retorch? Hyperbole on both sides is what is the problem in all things. Guess its the millennial way After this weekend? Looks pretty warm to me overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 23 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Even if it is just one model day ten outlook, the GFS doesn't agree with this. The GEFS does, and has been trending towards the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 Oh ok, but the operational GFS doesn't and does well in La Nina years because it is naturally already progressive in nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: So +3/4 is a torch, just needed clarification on the term. Thanks I like cold and snow as much as anyone, but I'm trying to be non-biased here. I don't see a wintry look here in New England after this weekend. I think the good news is that western Canada may finally cool off and get the snow they need. So hopefully we get the source region taken care of and dateline ridging at some point in December. Now as a nation, it certainly will cool down. No question compared to the recent weeks. Now could you get a fluke cold airmass timed right? Of course...but I am speaking of the overall look. Details TBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: I like cold and snow as much as anyone, but I'm trying to be non-biased here. I don't see a wintry look here in New England after this weekend. I think the good news is that western Canada may finally cool off and get the snow they need. So hopefully we get the source region taken care of and dateline ridging at some point in December. Now as a nation, it certainly will cool down. No question compared to the recent weeks. Now could you get a fluke cold airmass timed right? Of course...but I am speaking of the overall look. Details TBD. So, looks mild but not hysterically "torched"? I know for some around here +1F is serious warmth and +3 is Jurassic Park. Since you don't seem to be one of those types, I'm taking it to mean sort of a regular type warm up. What does the longer term look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 23 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said: So, looks mild but not hysterically "torched"? I know for some around here +1F is serious warmth and +3 is Jurassic Park. Since you don't seem to be one of those types, I'm taking it to mean sort of a regular type warm up. What does the longer term look like? I hear some talk about the second half of Novie more in the way of anomalous warmth than first half, but not sure I see that yet. I think we average AN, but you can always get these rogue events that are timed well in the interior. It's possible that we get a couple of cutters if the trough sets up out west. Overall I don't see an issue or any sign it means a bad winter...lol. People really need to be patient. I have no idea about December to be honest. Wouldn't shock me if we had a few snow events, or it averaged out mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: I like cold and snow as much as anyone, but I'm trying to be non-biased here. I don't see a wintry look here in New England after this weekend. I think the good news is that western Canada may finally cool off and get the snow they need. So hopefully we get the source region taken care of and dateline ridging at some point in December. Now as a nation, it certainly will cool down. No question compared to the recent weeks. Now could you get a fluke cold airmass timed right? Of course...but I am speaking of the overall look. Details TBD. Exactly. No one likes to hear it, but it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I hear some talk about the second half of Novie more in the way of anomalous warmth than first half, but not sure I see that yet. I think we average AN, but you can always get these rogue events that are timed well in the interior. It's possible that we get a couple of cutters if the trough sets up out west. Overall I don't see an issue or any sign it means a bad winter...lol. People really need to be patient. I have no idea about December to be honest. Wouldn't shock me if we had a few snow events, or it averaged out mild. Same page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 2 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: It looks like a rain storm that turns over to a backlash of snowfall. Wait until that begins to post again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: I hear some talk about the second half of Novie more in the way of anomalous warmth than first half, but not sure I see that yet. I think we average AN, but you can always get these rogue events that are timed well in the interior. It's possible that we get a couple of cutters if the trough sets up out west. Overall I don't see an issue or any sign it means a bad winter...lol. People really need to be patient. I have no idea about December to be honest. Wouldn't shock me if we had a few snow events, or it averaged out mild. Maybe the Euro monthlies out tomorrow (hint-hint) will provide us with some decent guidance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 9 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Maybe the Euro monthlies out tomorrow (hint-hint) will provide us with some decent guidance! Big run. Hopefully not as warm as everything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 Some talk swirling now of ratter winter where that thought was impossible even last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Some talk swirling now of ratter winter where that thought was impossible even last week Who thought it was impossible? You? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Who thought it was impossible? You? Not me. I'm on file for a good Dec and Jan but winter abruptly ends in Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 Those posts are the ones that cause confusion. God. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 Big big signals now in all camps and EPS of high impact big event soueaster. Also tropical disturbance In Caribbean that may be infused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Some talk swirling now of ratter winter where that thought was impossible even last week Where do you get this knee jerk reaction stuff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 Torch, Ratter, worst winter known to humanity . whatever happened to climo. like I said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 49 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Those posts are the ones that cause confusion. God. OMG right!! Great Post. It's the same old crap with that guy every season. Winters starting, it's ending, it's a ratter, it's a great December, winter ends abruptly in Feb....etc etc... What crap!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 13 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Where do you get this knee jerk reaction stuff? Take a look at modeling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 28 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Big big signals now in all camps and EPS of high impact big event soueaster. Also tropical disturbance In Caribbean that may be infused. Don't know about the big big signals but as depicted by the European that's a high impact warm seclusion during Syzygy tides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Take a look at modeling CFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: CFS? Talking about the soueaster. This is Nov thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 NAM remains on the highly amped up system for the 10th, again only model showing this system like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Take a look at modeling "Some talk swirling now of ratter winter where that thought was impossible even last week." What modeling will help us see that change from last week to this week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 9 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: NAM remains on the highly amped up system for the 10th, again only model showing this system like this. Not gonna happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 Yeah Scott I like the snow chances for the 13th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: Where do you get this knee jerk reaction stuff? 99% of it comes from the twitter machine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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