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Novie is near, the first un-official month of SNE winter!

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Still a but unsure what and when will Nina really kick in. Based on what I see from Mike Vs stuff..maybe later Novie or December? Global AAM is decreasing which is usually a sign of Nina. The atmosphere will try and develop ridging further west near dateline and potentially troughing in the west. The EC does try to show this. However, the tropical MJO stuff is not showing this sign...at least based on the upper level divergence signal at 200mb. It still has enhanced divergence in SAMR and eventually Africa (Not really nina look). This may push into the martime continent in December.  Canada is baked, so this is a good time to lay out a foundation there. 

In the meantime, the models have a pretty good cold shot next weekend. The 00z GFS attemped an interior snowstorm. 6z GFS attemped some first snow all the way to the coast, but mostly because of an inv trough deal. The EC isn't having it. The Canadian ensembles do have some members showing a storm. My guess is the 00z GFS is probably not gonna happen, but always should be aware of these troughs diving sharply south with an existing baroclinic zone off the coast.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Regardless the warm pattern ends this week and we go into a BN regime second half of month with a fair chance of snow Otg as we carve birds 

I don't think so. It moderates after next weekend. If troughing sets up west, it's not BN. Too early to say.

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted

One helluva GLC look on the 0z Euro at hr 240. Yea it's hr 240, but it's coinciding with my original thoughts from earlier last week so I give it more weight and interest than usual. Regardless of specifics, a potent storm signal remains from hr 240 - hr 280.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2016110600&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=53

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=T850&runtime=2016110600&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=144

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

One helluva GLC look on the 0z Euro at hr 240. Yea it's hr 240, but it's coinciding with my original thoughts, from earlier this week, so it give more weight and interest than usual. Regardless of specifics, a potent storm signal remains from hr 240 - hr 280.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2016110600&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=53

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=T850&runtime=2016110600&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=144

The EPS have it too. Maybe Kevin gets his screaming sou'easter.

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted
56 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Every good winter begins with one. If we can get that to happen with winds 65-75mph..oh #1 how we'd all want that..but #2..it would usher in winter pattern behind it

Yea I wouldn't get ahead of ourselves but I am inclined to agree that it would be beneficial to see a sub 980 mb cutter shake up the atmosphere over the  north eastern CONUS. 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Still a but unsure what and when will Nina really kick in. Based on what I see from Mike Vs stuff..maybe later Novie or December? Global AAM is decreasing which is usually a sign of Nina. The atmosphere will try and develop ridging further west near dateline and potentially troughing in the west. The EC does try to show this. However, the tropical MJO stuff is not showing this sign...at least based on the upper level divergence signal at 200mb. It still has enhanced divergence in SAMR and eventually Africa (Not really nina look). This may push into the martime continent in December.  Canada is baked, so this is a good time to lay out a foundation there. 

In the meantime, the models have a pretty good cold shot next weekend. The 00z GFS attemped an interior snowstorm. 6z GFS attemped some first snow all the way to the coast, but mostly because of an inv trough deal. The EC isn't having it. The Canadian ensembles do have some members showing a storm. My guess is the 00z GFS is probably not gonna happen, but always should be aware of these troughs diving sharply south with an existing baroclinic zone off the coast.

I'm out.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Always in a rush to bring in a pattern. Sit back and sit tight. Patience.

Its going to take until sometime in December to get much of anything going, and then the coast is going have major issues.

I was laughing seeing all of these "mid Novie flip" posts....that PV in AK is not going anywhere fast.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its going to take until sometime in December to get much of anything going, and then the coast is going have major issues.

I was laughing seeing all of these "mid Novie flip" posts....that PV in AK is not going anywhere fast.

Why laugh when all ENS modeling indicates it does change. Gut feeling ?

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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yeah... i don't see any reason why this won't getting cooking in terms of a shift between the 10th and 20th of the month...

i don't know though - it seems if folks don't get paid dividens there's a troll tendency and mockery and other agenda gets plied 'within forum rules', so as to seemingly not be detectable - but it still is and hugely annoying..

anyway, the 00z GFS has a long duration cats-paw/wet snow thing next weekend, and i don't see any reason why that can't happen given the spread of teleconnectors

oh, it probably won't... but, it's not unsupported just the same.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

They key is obviously the vortex in the AK/Bering region. But the ensembles show this retrograding back into the Aleutians and Kamchatka region. That would finally tap a little more cross polar flow and dump the cold into Canada and CONUS. 

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qr7121

qr7121

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

They key is obviously the vortex in the AK/Bering region. But the ensembles show this retrograding back into the Aleutians and Kamchatka region. That would finally tap a little more cross polar flow and dump the cold into Canada and CONUS. 

to my eyes it looks like the open water up in Beaufort/Chukchi is acting as a heat repository still, and if you loop the 10mb maps on tropical wx you can see how the atmospheric heat appears to be getting dumped in this region... this yr appears to be more exaggerated than any previous in that the PV is already splitting repeatedly. the 10mb map posted above shows how the heat dome pokes all the way into Greenland, forcing air from S Greenland SW into Quebec/the US. 

very curious to see what 12z shows in long range... i think the 240hr+ GFS has value if you use it on a hemispheric scale (better when used w ensembles of course), definitely not for specifics tho. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

They key is obviously the vortex in the AK/Bering region. But the ensembles show this retrograding back into the Aleutians and Kamchatka region. That would finally tap a little more cross polar flow and dump the cold into Canada and CONUS. 

i wouldn't dispute that - it's all code for flipping the EPO sign...  means the same thing really.  Low heights up in the Alaska sector ...even if it's biased to the Al. chain region of the NE Pac will pull the EPO numbers up.   Negative immediately connotes NW flow into the NW Canadian shield...etc, etc.

CDC shows a long lead -EPO, but it's been an emergent thing over the last three or four days ...getting a little more coherent per nightly run.  couple of factors could be contributing, but it's hard to know what is chicken and egg.  for one, Meari is recurving smartly along a clear west Pac baroclinic axis and that "should" re-inforce the downward movement of the WPO. meanwhile, the MJO is still robustly signaled to Phas 1-7-8.    that may not be Nina correlated, as Scott suggested... but, heh - so what.  i mean, firstly, we already know (if we have a f clue...) that ENSO is important, but can be trumped at any given time if the whole environment is destructively interfering.  he's right, but so long as the wave is modeled to do that, and the WPO nears neutral, there's ample chance for the atmospheric teleonnectors to part company with ENSO ...

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