CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 Portland Pummeler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 On 11/21/2016 at 4:15 PM, CoastalWx said: Nice hit there. Lets get it out of inverted middle finger mode and into cyclogenesis mode. Expand Yeah, I just don't care for the IVT look as most don't, If we can get it to transition sooner underneath LI would work out for more of the region, GFS has been stubborn showing the Norlun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 On 11/21/2016 at 4:15 PM, CoastalWx said: Portland Pummeler. Expand Who doesn't love a cold November rain. Hard to believe I was playing golf in short sleeves 3 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 Snowy period Thurs- Sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 On 11/21/2016 at 4:39 PM, OceanStWx said: Who doesn't love a cold November rain. Hard to believe I was playing golf in short sleeves 3 days ago. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 Sunday is sort of gaining a little more interest IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 On 11/20/2016 at 11:24 PM, CoastalWx said: Pretty deep trough in the southwest US in the 11-15 day. Might actually be a few over runners somewhere in the northeast at that time. Expand I expext some swfe this December. I like the activity, though still see nothing concrete that excites me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 Those in eastern areas are probably better served in swfe, rather ghan coastals until further notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 On 11/21/2016 at 5:19 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I expext some swfe this December. I like the activity, though still see nothing concrete that excites me. Expand For once, I actually don't have a gloomy feeling for December when I look in the medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 On 11/21/2016 at 5:29 PM, CoastalWx said: For once, I actually don't have a gloomy feeling for December when I look in the medium range. Expand Agree. Has a 12-08 appeal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 On 11/21/2016 at 5:31 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Agree. Has a 12-08 appeal. Expand Well, not sure I'm really to get that nude....lol. But, I kind of like the look if some of the guidance is correct. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 On 11/21/2016 at 4:23 PM, dryslot said: Yeah, I just don't care for the IVT look as most don't, If we can get it to transition sooner underneath LI would work out for more of the region, GFS has been stubborn showing the Norlun Expand Agreed. I'll need some thing a bit more compelling than that to make the trip up. Regardless, the 12z GFS does look great for a small part of the world. For GC on the other hand..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 On 11/21/2016 at 5:32 PM, moneypitmike said: Agreed. I'll need some thing a bit more compelling than that to make the trip up. Regardless, the 12z GFS does look great for a small part of the world. For GC on the other hand..... Expand Bath usually can do well in the IVT, More so then here, That whole BHB to PWM coastline typically is a favored area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 On 11/21/2016 at 5:32 PM, CoastalWx said: Well, not sure I'm really to get that nude....lol. But, I kind of like the look if some of the guidance is correct. We shall see. Expand I don't mean we are going to see 30" in December. What I meant is the type of systems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 On 11/21/2016 at 5:44 PM, dryslot said: Bath usually can do well in the IVT, More so then here, That whole BHB to PWM coastline typically is a favored area Expand I don't have stats to back this, but PWM- PSM is a surer bet. But since where these set up is such a time-time decision, I'm not sure if there's enough there to get me to drive four hours. Of course, we're 5-6 days out so no need to really sweat it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 The pattern does look more of a SWFE type going forward though, A well placed high to the north and run the warm front out under us, It can produce some decent totals in the 4-8", 6-10" range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 Neither would I. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 On 11/21/2016 at 5:54 PM, moneypitmike said: I don't have stats to back this, but PWM- PSM is a surer bet. But since where these set up is such a time-time decision, I'm not sure if there's enough there to get me to drive four hours. Of course, we're 5-6 days out so no need to really sweat it now. Expand I haven't seen this specifically cited in research, but it wouldn't shock me if coastal shape plays into it too. If you think about a typical land breeze (cold land, warm water) it would flow from land to the sea. Based on how the coast is shaped, you would enhance convergence especially from Cape Cod to RKD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 Dec 07 produced 41" up here, I would welcome a repeat of even 50% of that, As the last few decembers have been non exsistant as far as appreciable snow goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 On 11/21/2016 at 6:02 PM, OceanStWx said: I haven't seen this specifically cited in research, but it wouldn't shock me if coastal shape plays into it too. If you think about a typical land breeze (cold land, warm water) it would flow from land to the sea. Based on how the coast is shaped, you would enhance convergence especially from Cape Cod to RKD. Expand Same effect RE oes on north shore of MA.....max convergence usually near Salem-Peabody-Danvers area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 I don't think that, at least initially, we have as much cold available as we did in 2008, so may see more rain/ip this go around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 Inverted Legro Lasher on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 Like to see a little more cold air in place for the weekend, Pretty marginal air mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 Models seem to be leaning more IVT'ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 On 11/21/2016 at 6:30 PM, CoastalWx said: Inverted Legro Lasher on the Euro. Expand That's been showing up pretty consistently the last few runs across all guidance. Some guidance tries to wrap it more into an actual coastal while others are making it a very potent inverted trough. GGEM hammered most of eastern MA with that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 Next..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 On 11/21/2016 at 6:03 PM, dryslot said: Dec 07 produced 41" up here, I would welcome a repeat of even 50% of that, As the last few decembers have been non exsistant as far as appreciable snow goes Expand Probably it's been better up here (except for deep cold, apparently no longer possible in Dec.) For the 9 Decembers 2007-15, 4 have had 30"+, topped by 46" in 07, 3 more have been "average" with 17-21.5", and just 2 stinkers, 2011 and last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 Yup--a lot of recent guidance is showing this to be a far eastern Ma and especially Maine weekend. Plenty of time for this to evolve into something more widespread--or devolve into something inconsequential. For now, nothing to get excited about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 On 11/21/2016 at 6:38 PM, moneypitmike said: Yup--a lot of recent guidance is showing this to be a far eastern Ma and especially Maine weekend. Plenty of time for this to evolve into something more widespread--or devolve into something inconsequential. For now, nothing to get excited about. Expand Yeah being 120 hours out isn't the time to make definitive statements. I'd not expect much anywhere and then if it starts to look more promising, ramp up expectations accordingly. The guidance does have a pretty impressive s/w...so there's going to be a mechanism for lift somewhere. We just don't know exactly yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 And if guidance remains this way, We won't know until friday or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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