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Novie is near, the first un-official month of SNE winter!


Typhoon Tip

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  On 11/21/2016 at 4:15 PM, CoastalWx said:

Nice hit there. Lets get it out of inverted middle finger mode and into cyclogenesis mode.

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Yeah, I just don't care for the IVT look as most don't, If we can get it to transition sooner underneath LI would work out for more of the region, GFS has been stubborn showing the Norlun

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  On 11/20/2016 at 11:24 PM, CoastalWx said:

Pretty deep trough in the southwest US in the 11-15 day. Might actually be a few over runners somewhere in the northeast at that time.

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I expext some swfe this December.

I like the activity, though still see nothing concrete that excites me.

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  On 11/21/2016 at 4:23 PM, dryslot said:

Yeah, I just don't care for the IVT look as most don't, If we can get it to transition sooner underneath LI would work out for more of the region, GFS has been stubborn showing the Norlun

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Agreed.  I'll need some thing a bit more compelling than that to make the trip up.  Regardless, the 12z GFS does look great for a small part of the world.  For GC on the other hand.....

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  On 11/21/2016 at 5:32 PM, moneypitmike said:

 

Agreed.  I'll need some thing a bit more compelling than that to make the trip up.  Regardless, the 12z GFS does look great for a small part of the world.  For GC on the other hand.....

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Bath usually can do well in the IVT, More so then here, That whole BHB to PWM coastline typically is a favored area

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  On 11/21/2016 at 5:44 PM, dryslot said:

Bath usually can do well in the IVT, More so then here, That whole BHB to PWM coastline typically is a favored area

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I don't have stats to back this, but PWM- PSM is a surer bet.  But since where these set up is such a time-time decision, I'm not sure if there's enough there to get me to drive four hours.  Of course, we're 5-6 days out so no need to really sweat it now.

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  On 11/21/2016 at 5:54 PM, moneypitmike said:

I don't have stats to back this, but PWM- PSM is a surer bet.  But since where these set up is such a time-time decision, I'm not sure if there's enough there to get me to drive four hours.  Of course, we're 5-6 days out so no need to really sweat it now.

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I haven't seen this specifically cited in research, but it wouldn't shock me if coastal shape plays into it too.

If you think about a typical land breeze (cold land, warm water) it would flow from land to the sea. Based on how the coast is shaped, you would enhance convergence especially from Cape Cod to RKD. 

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  On 11/21/2016 at 6:02 PM, OceanStWx said:

I haven't seen this specifically cited in research, but it wouldn't shock me if coastal shape plays into it too.

If you think about a typical land breeze (cold land, warm water) it would flow from land to the sea. Based on how the coast is shaped, you would enhance convergence especially from Cape Cod to RKD. 

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Same effect RE oes on north shore of MA.....max convergence usually near Salem-Peabody-Danvers area.

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  On 11/21/2016 at 6:30 PM, CoastalWx said:

Inverted Legro Lasher on the Euro.

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That's been showing up pretty consistently the last few runs across all guidance. Some guidance tries to wrap it more into an actual coastal while others are making it a very potent inverted trough. GGEM hammered most of eastern MA with that setup.

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  On 11/21/2016 at 6:03 PM, dryslot said:

Dec 07 produced 41" up here, I would welcome a repeat of even 50% of that, As the last few decembers have been non exsistant as far as appreciable snow goes

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Probably it's been better up here (except for deep cold, apparently no longer possible in Dec.)  For the 9 Decembers 2007-15, 4 have had 30"+, topped by 46" in 07, 3 more have been "average" with 17-21.5", and just 2 stinkers, 2011 and last year.

 

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  On 11/21/2016 at 6:38 PM, moneypitmike said:

Yup--a lot of recent guidance is showing this to be a far eastern Ma and especially Maine weekend.  Plenty of time for this to evolve into something more widespread--or devolve into something inconsequential.

For now, nothing to get excited about.

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Yeah being 120 hours out isn't the time to make definitive statements. I'd not expect much anywhere and then if it starts to look more promising, ramp up expectations accordingly. The guidance does have a pretty impressive s/w...so there's going to be a mechanism for lift somewhere. We just don't know exactly yet.

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