Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Oct 27th to 29th vigorous Vort max Sn/Rn/wind


Ginx snewx

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 686
  • Created
  • Last Reply
2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Well, it is the S CT coast in October...

 

I know, but I feel like I just missed. I'll bet there is snow in the northern part of town just north of HPN. I think there could be some mangled flakes, but it could also be wishful thinking as I've been staring out the window for three hours now. It appears now though that we are getting some flakes mixed in- seems like it's trying to change to snow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

with that high in that position ... wondering if this results cooler in profile than erstwhile anticipated ;)

there's a gap in the reality vs imagination (the latter of which is utterly required when dabbing in the "art" of weather prediction) when it comes to cold air inhibiting warmth.

that specific trait of cold inhibition wrt "event-dom" is NEVER accessed in sufficient magnitude.  the error vector is ALWAYS too warm.  it's just a matter of whether that too warm is a matter of a fraction of a degree and thus not noticed, or...  a boat load of degrees and a conflagrate bust.    

we radiated proficiently to dawn, than... this is a slam dunk 'CAP' circumstance with this ceiling spreading in at precisely the right time of the diurnal cycle to maximize the negative feed-back on warming.  we got the air mass cold under neath snow thickness, and with that high in that position ...those two circumstances positively feed-back toward the coolest of all possible results that could happen given the initial parameters.

the end result is a wall of steady light to perhaps moderate snow in spots, where the back 'mix' zone is having trouble advancing as fast as the front edge of event on-set.  

don't know if that will stay that way, ... but we arent' getting any help from an oblate sun angle at this time of year and so we may just maximize throughout this low end event.  we'll see.. but if the high were not situated due N and essentially immovable throughout, i'd had no issue with warming.    I don't see how the recent NAM cycles are going to be successful getting ALB's wind around to the SW during this thing... it's going to be interesting to test that. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Got down to 26.3F up here in Central NH.  Temp has been slowly rising all morning, dim sun is not helping right now.   35/28F.   Surprised no snow advisories for any of the mountain locations in New England.  Cold air seems to be over performing. 

Beware the warm tongue....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Got down to 26.3F up here in Central NH.  Temp has been slowly rising all morning, dim sun is not helping right now.   35/28F.   Surprised no snow advisories for any of the mountain locations in New England.  Cold air seems to be over performing. 

not speaking for NWS directly ... but, issuance by necessity is definitely at least part of their mo. 

most of the snow according to perfectly valid analytic tools is along the aretes of the mountains where there's circumstantial desolation, abandoned trails, dear and black bears, ..sans any roads or ...well, people.  

if we want to get into questioning weather they will be right in that assessment, that's another discussion. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

12z NAM is starting to slow the warming over the interior. I suspect models will play catchup with this throughout the day.

yup... 

i just opined about that a moment ago .. how this thing has cool bust written all over it; it's probably a matter of 'how much' the models were too warm more so than rather they will be.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...