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Oct 27th to 29th vigorous Vort max Sn/Rn/wind

Ginx snewx

By Ginx snewx,
in New England

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wxeyeNH

wxeyeNH

Posted
Posted

I'd love to see an hour or two of snow before the changeover.  Good radiational cooling night.  Would be nice to get the high clouds in right around sunrise to keep the day colder.  I don't know if that really makes any difference since it's whats going on over head that counts.

For those of you that don't have it here is the link to my video stream.  The cam has IR for nightvision too.    https://video.nest.com/live/CNqA9P

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

I'm happy to have just seen a few flakes earlier today when I was at the ATM. 

 

I'm hoping for an earlier than anticipated start so 1) perhaps the temp profiles will be better and 2) perhaps I can drive through some snow on my way east.  I'm anticipating I'll miss any snow falling and will return home to wet lawns. 

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted
21 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Mid-levels get pretty warm though on some of these runs...if they somehow keep it all snow, they could get annihilated. It would probably rival some records up there for October snowfalls.

Tops I found in Maine was 25.7" at Brassua, east of Jackman, Oct. 2000.  That was followed by a great winter, but other big Octobers in W.Maine (1963, 2005), naso much.  And PF already noted the Octobomb follow-up.

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Randy4Confluence

Randy4Confluence

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Hope cali is treating you well. I just moved to Virginia myself, so I'll be living vicariously through these threads too. 

Thanks. What part of VA are you located now? Fortunately , We can drive 110 miles to the hills and see true winter there ( Truckee, CA near Tahoe).  Otherwise, this climate is Mediterranean, which I'm actually liking. 

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

84 on my ride from Danbury to Newtown has the bridges and over passes pretreated. I guess it is better safe than sorry... everyone knows how the first light accumulation goes for the morning rush hour if it doesn't in fact happen around that time.

 

Well---I'll go out and call that a little extreme......

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

The models all bring in a wa tongue near 925-950 from the east-southeast. It's interesting because the warm air as shown looks to hit a wall near Ct River. That's because it's precipitating and wetbulbing down. If models are too warm, it snows in ORH area. But even taking into account that models may be a bit too warm, they all have that warm tongue thanks to deep parent low pressure. Tough call but I did mention possibility of snow at onset for ORH. 

  One other thing that may deliver  first flakes, is the coastal front moving west off of Mass Bay. It's a race with that 925 warm tongue, but it would not shock me if the cold side of that front produced flakes as air with be from north. Something to watch I guess. Thinking mainly just away from coast.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

BTV going with 7-10" for the peaks.  I love the amount of detail they've put into mountain forecasts lately.

-------------------------------

Attention Snow Lovers!  We've got some more good news for you,  especially if you are willing to head into the mountains to find it.
  
Most of us will have a cold rain develop during the day Thursday and last into Friday, though a brief period of snow at the start is expected at elevations between 500 feet to 1500 feet before before turning to rain. The higher elevations will not have the transition to rain.  The amount of snow will greatly vary with elevation. In general, above 1500 ft elevation is where the snow will accumulate to perhaps an inch. Above 2500 ft, the amounts will be at least 4".  On the tops of the highest peaks (Whiteface, Mt Marcy, Mt Mansfield, Jay Peak) we are expecting 7 to 10 inches.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, alex said:

Our high was 32.9 today. If it clears enough to radiate, should be a good starting point for the event. 

Yeah we had a midnight high of 32.5F at the office and a daytime high of 30.7F.  

Was able to make snow all day even in the base area.  Crazy for October.

Shame this next event slowed down...came in tomorrow morning and it'd be Advisory snows for most.

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alex

alex

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah we had a midnight high of 32.5F at the office and a daytime high of 30.7F.  

Was able to make snow all day even in the base area.  Crazy for October.

Bretton Woods was making snow too... not sure I get it, considering the rain in the forecast for the weekend, the warm forecast for early November, and the fact that the projected opening is not till the 20th... but I'm not an expert!

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qg_omega

qg_omega

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

BTV going with 7-10" for the peaks.  I love the amount of detail they've put into mountain forecasts lately.

-------------------------------

Attention Snow Lovers!  We've got some more good news for you,  especially if you are willing to head into the mountains to find it.
  
Most of us will have a cold rain develop during the day Thursday and last into Friday, though a brief period of snow at the start is expected at elevations between 500 feet to 1500 feet before before turning to rain. The higher elevations will not have the transition to rain.  The amount of snow will greatly vary with elevation. In general, above 1500 ft elevation is where the snow will accumulate to perhaps an inch. Above 2500 ft, the amounts will be at least 4".  On the tops of the highest peaks (Whiteface, Mt Marcy, Mt Mansfield, Jay Peak) we are expecting 7 to 10 inches.

Wow very detailed, lol.  

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, alex said:

Bretton Woods was making snow too... not sure I get it, considering the rain in the forecast for the weekend, the warm forecast for early November, and the fact that the projected opening is not till the 20th... but I'm not an expert!

Well the mountains are supposed to stay more white than wet in this next system.  You gotta start somewhere...and after last season the snowmakers are hungry.  Look at it this way, last season we had tons of snowmaking wiped out with warmth and rain.  Last winter showed that if you get a good window you don't pass it up, regardless of what's coming. Snowmaking is like sleet ratios and takes a lot of energy to melt...so even a week in the 40s (valleys 50s to 60s) will probably retain something at least.  

Even if you can save the upper 500ft of the mountain from melting out, it gives you a head start when everyone else starts making snow.  

Then there's the marketing aspect...making snow right now gets the masses going especially after a poor winter.  People want to get the momentum going.

 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Well the mountains are supposed to stay more white than wet in this next system.  You gotta start somewhere...and after last season the snowmakers are hungry.  Look at it this way, last season we had tons of snowmaking wiped out with warmth and rain.  Last winter showed that if you get a good window you don't pass it up, regardless of what's coming. Snowmaking is like sleet ratios and takes a lot of energy to melt...so even a week in the 40s (valleys 50s to 60s) will probably retain something at least.  

Even if you can save the upper 500ft of the mountain from melting out, it gives you a head start when everyone else starts making snow.  

Then there's the marketing aspect...making snow right now gets the masses going especially after a poor winter.  People want to get the momentum going.

 

Yeah there is definitely a mental aspect of it. A feel good boost. Gets the economy going etc...a win for all.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

The warmups in the next 10-12 days look dry too and relatively brief. So snowmaking makes more sense. That can easily survive a day or two of 51/30 type temps...it's the 50/50 rainstorms that are the crushers.

 

And there may be another cold shot or two in between the warmups enough to crank out another 30 hours of snow. By that point you are into mid-November and you might have your upper mountain in pretty decent shape for that time of year.

 

The fact that there may be warning snowfall from this next system only acts as a massive enhancer. Grab a quick 6-10 inches of 10 to 1 snow...that's a lot of frozen energy locked into the system.

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scoob40

scoob40

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

East slopes of Berks certainly in the cross hairs of some models for 1-3.  It does seem like nrn CT into ORH area could pick up a little acc too. It will be all about low level wetbulbs. Still feel like the models may be too quick to warm lower 2k or so.  Tough call. May also need to watch one of those leading H7 warm front type bands, but then also it may take time to saturate given dry profile to start. 

3-6 in West Chesterfield ?

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

I'd love to see an hour or two of snow before the changeover.  Good radiational cooling night.  Would be nice to get the high clouds in right around sunrise to keep the day colder.  I don't know if that really makes any difference since it's whats going on over head that counts.

For those of you that don't have it here is the link to my video stream.  The cam has IR for nightvision too.    https://video.nest.com/live/CNqA9P

Looked like some K-H action in the distance a bit ago.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The warmups in the next 10-12 days look dry too and relatively brief. So snowmaking makes more sense. That can easily survive a day or two of 51/30 type temps...it's the 50/50 rainstorms that are the crushers.

And there may be another cold shot or two in between the warmups enough to crank out another 30 hours of snow. By that point you are into mid-November and you might have your upper mountain in pretty decent shape for that time of year.

The fact that there may be warning snowfall from this next system only acts as a massive enhancer. Grab a quick 6-10 inches of 10 to 1 snow...that's a lot of frozen energy locked into the system.

Yeah that's where I'm at.  Not only melting the snowmaking which is like trying to melt a foot of sleet, but there's 11" of dense snowpack with 1.25-1.5" of water in it (lots of graupel in there) right now, so throw in another 4-6" of high moisture snow/sleet/zr on top of that and we are in business with the snowpack. 

For a lot of areas and even we followed the arbitrary November 1st date as a time when its now ok to make snow if it gets cold.  This is the first year we did any October snowmaking but the reasoning was 1) get some good vibes and momentum going 2) we think we can hold some of it looking at the long range pattern (not all of it or even close, but some of it up high) and 3) what's the difference between October 25th and November 1st?

People cite incoming rain or possible mild weather in November...well I can tell you if it was November 8th and its below freezing, 99% of the ski resorts would be making snow even if the following week was supposed to be 80 degrees for 5 days, because the calendar says its November and that's what you are supposed to do when you get -10C 850s in November.  But the industry as a whole will pass it up only a few days away from November because the calendar says October, except for the Sunday Rivers, Killingtons, etc.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah that's where I'm at.  Not only melting the snowmaking which is like trying to melt a foot of sleet, but there's 11" of dense snowpack with 1.25-1.5" of water in it (lots of graupel in there) right now, so throw in another 4-6" of high moisture snow/sleet/zr on top of that and we are in business with the snowpack. 

For a lot of areas and even we followed the arbitrary November 1st date as a time when its now ok to make snow if it gets cold.  This is the first year we did any October snowmaking but the reasoning was 1) get some good vibes and momentum going 2) we think we can hold some of it looking at the long range pattern (not all of it or even close, but some of it up high) and 3) what's the difference between October 25th and November 1st?

People cite incoming rain or possible mild weather in November...well I can tell you if it was November 8th and its below freezing, 99% of the ski resorts would be making snow even if the following week was supposed to be 80 degrees for 5 days, because the calendar says its November and that's what you are supposed to do when you get -10C 850s in November.  But the industry as a whole will pass it up only a few days away from November because the calendar says October.

Yeah seems silly to only look at the calendar when the difference is only a few days...and the pattern doesn't look overly hostile for snow retention. 

 

At any rate, hopefully this one over achieves in the mountains. Would be a nice start. It's definitely a close call between like 3-4" and possibly 10" for the higher peaks. 

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bobbutts

bobbutts

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah that's where I'm at.  Not only melting the snowmaking which is like trying to melt a foot of sleet, but there's 11" of dense snowpack with 1.25-1.5" of water in it (lots of graupel in there) right now, so throw in another 4-6" of high moisture snow/sleet/zr on top of that and we are in business with the snowpack. 

For a lot of areas and even we followed the arbitrary November 1st date as a time when its now ok to make snow if it gets cold.  This is the first year we did any October snowmaking but the reasoning was 1) get some good vibes and momentum going 2) we think we can hold some of it looking at the long range pattern (not all of it or even close, but some of it up high) and 3) what's the difference between October 25th and November 1st?

People cite incoming rain or possible mild weather in November...well I can tell you if it was November 8th and its below freezing, 99% of the ski resorts would be making snow even if the following week was supposed to be 80 degrees for 5 days, because the calendar says its November and that's what you are supposed to do when you get -10C 850s in November.  But the industry as a whole will pass it up only a few days away from November because the calendar says October, except for the Sunday Rivers, Killingtons, etc.

How much relative weight do you guys put on the long range forecasts vs. Climo?

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adk

adk

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah that's where I'm at.  Not only melting the snowmaking which is like trying to melt a foot of sleet, but there's 11" of dense snowpack with 1.25-1.5" of water in it (lots of graupel in there) right now, so throw in another 4-6" of high moisture snow/sleet/zr on top of that and we are in business with the snowpack. 

For a lot of areas and even we followed the arbitrary November 1st date as a time when its now ok to make snow if it gets cold.  This is the first year we did any October snowmaking but the reasoning was 1) get some good vibes and momentum going 2) we think we can hold some of it looking at the long range pattern (not all of it or even close, but some of it up high) and 3) what's the difference between October 25th and November 1st?

People cite incoming rain or possible mild weather in November...well I can tell you if it was November 8th and its below freezing, 99% of the ski resorts would be making snow even if the following week was supposed to be 80 degrees for 5 days, because the calendar says its November and that's what you are supposed to do when you get -10C 850s in November.  But the industry as a whole will pass it up only a few days away from November because the calendar says October, except for the Sunday Rivers, Killingtons, etc.

Seriously whats the difference between 11/5 and 10/25 when the fact is, it could rain and be hot for a week from 12/15 to 12/15. 

I find BTV's statement that there will be no changeover above 2000ft surprising. 850s clearly warm and with intense southerly winds I don't see how we switch over from snow to some form of sleet/mist/rain mix for at least a period.  That said, I don't think I disagree with their totals. I'm thinking this is a 6-7" paste event in the Greens. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, adk said:

Seriously whats the difference between 11/5 and 10/25 when the fact is, it could rain and be hot for a week from 12/15 to 12/15. 

I find BTV's statement that there will be no changeover above 2000ft surprising. 850s clearly warm and with intense southerly winds I don't see how we switch over from snow to some form of sleet/mist/rain mix for at least a period.  That said, I don't think I disagree with their totals. I'm thinking this is a 6-7" paste event in the Greens. 

It's nearly isothermal. Barely above 0c. Lift could possibly offset it up there. 

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
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Some wind too 

THU NIGHT...E TO SE WINDS INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 TO 9 FT...HIGHEST W. CHANCE OF RAIN.
.FRI...SE WINDS 30 TO 40 KT...SHIFTING TO W TO NW 25 TO 35 KT
LATE. SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 14 FT...BECOMING HIGHEST NE.  RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N TO NW WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 7 TO 11
FT...HIGHEST SE.
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