HoarfrostHubb Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Phil's getting graupel on the Cape A few scattered snow flakes here late afternoon and evening I saw pretty much nothing but many in town were going on about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 East slopes of Berks certainly in the cross hairs of some models for 1-3. It does seem like nrn CT into ORH area could pick up a little acc too. It will be all about low level wetbulbs. Still feel like the models may be too quick to warm lower 2k or so. Tough call. May also need to watch one of those leading H7 warm front type bands, but then also it may take time to saturate given dry profile to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: East slopes of Berks certainly in the cross hairs of some models for 1-3. It does seem like nrn CT into ORH area could pick up a little acc too. It will be all about low level wetbulbs. Still feel like the models may be too quick to warm lower 2k or so. Tough call. May also need to watch one of those leading H7 warm front type bands, but then also it may take time to saturate given dry profile to start. Will be fine just to start a snow for a few hours. I'm thinking no accum.. But any snow in Oct is good. Looks like we wait until mid Nov for next snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 Euro seemed a tick warmer overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 Hi! Quite the cold shot with this low moving in, and that cold high nosing in from up north for OCT. Hopefully even the coast sees a couple of flakes. We've moved into our rainy season earlier this year, which is kinda nice. Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 13 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Hey PF found this today http://www.matthewparrilla.com/mansfield-stake/ Yeah that guy did a lot of work putting that together. I looked at that and cried into the reindeer sweater a lot last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 14 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah. Of course some may view this as some sort of anti NNE thing. Absolutely not. Rock on as far as I'm concerned. But October patterns don't mean anything. That would go for any pattern....even one that was kind to interior SNE. Oh not at all anti-NNE...the thing is relative to climo it's doing exactly what it should. We have snow at the ski areas and northern zones like Pittsburg, NH and we are talking about snow events for Rangley and Jackman. The NW upslope zones are doing well. This is how climo is if you draw it up...first way up north in the mountains, then you work your way south and east towards the ocean. Its hard to say seasonal pattern when it's going sort of how climo is supposed to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 NAM has a nice burst of snow to start nrn CT into western MA and looks to be ORH area too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2016 Author Share Posted October 26, 2016 7 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Oh not at all anti-NNE...the thing is relative to climo it's doing exactly what it should. We have snow at the ski areas and northern zones like Pittsburg, NH and we are talking about snow events for Rangley and Jackman. The NW upslope zones are doing well. This is how climo is if you draw it up...first way up north in the mountains, then you work your way south and east towards the ocean. Its hard to say seasonal pattern when it's going sort of how climo is supposed to go. Seems judging by the site that Climo deep snows in october are pretty rare even up there. Looks to me judging by those charts that consistent depth doesn't occur usually until Mid Nov http://www.matthewparrilla.com/mansfield-stake/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Seems judging by the site that Climo deep snows in october are pretty rare even up there. Looks to me judging by those charts that consistent depth doesn't occur usually until Mid Nov http://www.matthewparrilla.com/mansfield-stake/ Yeah but you know what I mean. We look for the cryosphere to come from the north to south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Seems judging by the site that Climo deep snows in october are pretty rare even up there. Looks to me judging by those charts that consistent depth doesn't occur usually until Mid Nov http://www.matthewparrilla.com/mansfield-stake/ What does "rare" and "deep" mean? I think it's fairly "common" if by common you mean every other year, for there to be something like an 8-10" event in late October above 2000ft in the northern Greens. I can recall such in 2010, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 1 minute ago, adk said: What does "rare" and "deep" mean? I think it's fairly "common" if by common you mean every other year, for there to be something like an 8-10" event in late October above 2000ft in the northern Greens. I can recall such in 2010, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2016. 2003/2005/2006 were all decent too IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 A system like Thursday could be considered pretty rare if it dumps a lot of snow down to 1000 feet or lower in Maine...that isn't very common. Definitely a little different than a system like last week which produced mostly above 2000 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2016 Author Share Posted October 26, 2016 13 minutes ago, adk said: What does "rare" and "deep" mean? I think it's fairly "common" if by common you mean every other year, for there to be something like an 8-10" event in late October above 2000ft in the northern Greens. I can recall such in 2010, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2016. consistent depth, sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 If only the Nammy was right. That's 1-3 for a lot of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: If only the Nammy was right. That's 1-3 for a lot of us It's pretty torched below 925mb. That's gonna be something to watch. It might be a little quick in warming up that 925-950 layer, but if it isn't then it's gonna be rain anywhere east of the Berkshires in SNE...except maybe top of WaWa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2016 Author Share Posted October 26, 2016 18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It's pretty torched below 925mb. That's gonna be something to watch. It might be a little quick in warming up that 925-950 layer, but if it isn't then it's gonna be rain anywhere east of the Berkshires in SNE...except maybe top of WaWa. never bet against SE winds in October, woud take an extremely rare deep cold layer to not erode. Cripes even with Roctober a breath of onshore NE winds torched the Eastern 1/3rd LLevels torched before the ULL provided some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 So is tomorrow afternoon more than likely a washout? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: So is tomorrow afternoon more than likely a washout? For all of SNE I would say so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2016 Author Share Posted October 26, 2016 RGEM jacks the berks with 4-8 south to North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 5 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Will be fine just to start a snow for a few hours. I'm thinking no accum.. But any snow in Oct is good. Looks like we wait until mid Nov for next snows Shocking....I thought Oct snow was bad? Looking forward to seeing some white stuff. I'm thinking we will see some accums...just not sure how much. Time to dust off the ole snowboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 ALY says another elevation event with a little love too in some spots below 1K Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 There seems to be a sharp cutoff near the CT river on a lot of models. It looks due to that 925-950 layer getting milder. I can't help but think at least nrn ORH county gets something. That seems strange to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 56 minutes ago, MetHerb said: Shocking....I thought Oct snow was bad? Looking forward to seeing some white stuff. I'm thinking we will see some accums...just not sure how much. Time to dust off the ole snowboard. It needs to get in here early. Those SE winds are going to torch the BL. Hopefully the typical WAA coming in faster than modeled happens as it often does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 31 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It needs to get in here early. Those SE winds are going to torch the BL. Hopefully the typical WAA coming in faster than modeled happens as it often does A few days ago it was coming into mby before 12z...now it's 21z. I'm hoping it's underestimating the ageostrophic component a bit and we keep it backed more to the NE up through H92 a bit longer than progged. I'd like to at least see a coating before it gets drenched away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 White rain for here, We wait for first flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 3 hours ago, Randy4Confluence said: Hi! Quite the cold shot with this low moving in, and that cold high nosing in from up north for OCT. Hopefully even the coast sees a couple of flakes. We've moved into our rainy season earlier this year, which is kinda nice. Good luck. Hope cali is treating you well. I just moved to Virginia myself, so I'll be living vicariously through these threads too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: consistent depth, sorry Yeah it's tough even at that elevation to have October start the seasonal snowpack for good. This event could be interesting in that regard. If this can put down another half inch of QPF in some form of SN/IP/ZR and then change back to snow on the summit on the backside, it really could be the start of the snowpack up high. That would give it like 2" of LE and 12-15" of depth probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: A system like Thursday could be considered pretty rare if it dumps a lot of snow down to 1000 feet or lower in Maine...that isn't very common. Definitely a little different than a system like last week which produced mostly above 2000 feet. I know this is nit-picking and not sure what "a lot of snow" is but there were 2-4" amounts even down to 800ft in areas and 5+ above 1,000-1200ft last week. Westfield, VT Cocorahs had 7" at 1000ft. Yeah the 8-12" was 2000ft and up if that's what you're talking about. Last weekend ended up about a thousand feet lower than expected per a NWS employee and that sort of made sense as there wasn't even an Advisory out and a decent amount of roads required treatment above 1000ft along with power outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 6 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I know this is nit-picking and not sure what "a lot of snow" is but there were 2-4" amounts even down to 800ft in areas and 5+ above 1,000-1200ft last week. Westfield, VT Cocorahs had 7" at 1000ft. Yeah the 8-12" was 2000ft and up if that's what you're talking about. Last weekend ended up about a thousand feet lower than expected per a NWS employee and that sort of made sense as there wasn't even an Advisory out and a decent amount of roads required treatment above 1000ft along with power outages. I was talking double digits....that's very rare below 1000 feet in October, even up in NNE. Not sure that will happen though...might be a smidge too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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