ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It warms a bit near 925 too. I would definitely agree about the ageo part. I'll take a more nrly component please. The only issue with this setup is that it is so early in the season with no real cryospheric feedback in place yet to strengthen and thicken the cold wedge, so I feel like it won't be quite as stout as it would be in December or something. But still, the classic physics are still there for a lot of wedging, and the models might be a bit too aggressive with the easterly component. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: The only issue with this setup is that it is so early in the season with no real cryospheric feedback in place yet to strengthen and thicken the cold wedge. And the timing later in the day hurts a bit. Look how cold temps are back in ern NY where the snow moves in early morning. Still, something to watch as we get closer. ORH definitely has room the wetbulb, especially if we can get maybe some mid level stuff well ahead of the low. Some models show a decent band of precip on what looks like the leading edge of H7 warm front. Maybe it's something where they have a 34F -SN for a time? At any rate, it's all speculation this early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2016 Author Share Posted October 25, 2016 Damn the Euro really smokes the Wildcat to Sugarloaf corridor the next 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: The only issue with this setup is that it is so early in the season with no real cryospheric feedback in place yet to strengthen and thicken the cold wedge, so I feel like it won't be quite as stout as it would be in December or something. But still, the classic physics are still there for a lot of wedging, and the models might be a bit too aggressive with the easterly component. Shockingly, I was thinking the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 For us up in Central New England it would be nice if we radiate real good on Wednesday night and then get the high clouds in here around daybreak. I would think that would help keep the cold air down near surface level. If we get several hours of sunshine first we loose the cold surface air. Maybe I could score a couple of inches before the changeover. Guess it depends on the track of the secondary and how fast it takes over. This is far better than taking about endless drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 32 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Shockingly, I was thinking the same thing. No you weren't. You were somehow thinking of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 55 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: No you weren't. You were somehow thinking of QPF. LOL!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 This is looking like a crush job for Rangeley area. That's a super look as the inflow combines and upslopes there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: This is looking like a crush job for Rangeley area. That's a super look as the inflow combines and upslopes there. Mid-levels get pretty warm though on some of these runs...if they somehow keep it all snow, they could get annihilated. It would probably rival some records up there for October snowfalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Mid-levels get pretty warm though on some of these runs...if they somehow keep it all snow, they could get annihilated. It would probably rival some records up there for October snowfalls. Maybe if not there, further northeast....but that's a good look overall. Hopefully it doesn't go too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 The extent of the cold air is strong with this cold air mass in the region. Should be some pretty decent snows eventually on Thursday. However Will, can I create a thread for November yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 I'm curious if that westward moving costal front causes a band of snow inland. Not necessary accumulations, but at least first flakes. Something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 I wonder if this event is foreshadowing the "seasonal pattern" in that we might have a big snow season for interior/northern New England. Finally a great season for the ski areas coming up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 14 minutes ago, metagraphica said: I wonder if this event is foreshadowing the "seasonal pattern" in that we might have a big snow season for interior/northern New England. Finally a great season for the ski areas coming up? We can hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 One October event doesn't dictate the pattern. I'n not trying to insinuate anything,but that's like trying to say a backdoor front means a cool summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 9 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: We can hope Hopefully not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: I'm curious if that westward moving costal front causes a band of snow inland. Not necessary accumulations, but at least first flakes. Something to watch. You mean in E Mass right? CT / W Ma get out from stuff from west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 33 minutes ago, metagraphica said: I wonder if this event is foreshadowing the "seasonal pattern" in that we might have a big snow season for interior/northern New England. Finally a great season for the ski areas coming up? Keep it there. As has been discussed most of the day. This looks like a great setup for the Mtns of ME. C/NNE look pretty good overall with the setup. Elevated and interior areas in SNE may see their 1st flakes or light accum before rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: One October event doesn't dictate the pattern. I'n not trying to insinuate anything,but that's like trying to say a backdoor front means a cool summer. Just like the two snow events in October 2011 really foreshadowed a huge interior SNE winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2016 Author Share Posted October 25, 2016 12 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Just like the two snow events in October 2011 really foreshadowed a huge interior SNE winter. Not for nothing, you have to be encouraged as the ducks are lining up LR for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2016 Author Share Posted October 25, 2016 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Mid-levels get pretty warm though on some of these runs...if they somehow keep it all snow, they could get annihilated. It would probably rival some records up there for October snowfalls. Euro Ens mean for the 7 days is impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 37 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Just like the two snow events in October 2011 really foreshadowed a huge interior SNE winter. Yeah. Of course some may view this as some sort of anti NNE thing. Absolutely not. Rock on as far as I'm concerned. But October patterns don't mean anything. That would go for any pattern....even one that was kind to interior SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 21 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Euro Ens mean for the 7 days is impressive. Warms up later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 1 hour ago, metagraphica said: I wonder if this event is foreshadowing the "seasonal pattern" in that we might have a big snow season for interior/northern New England. Finally a great season for the ski areas coming up? You better not jinx us with this type of loose talk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2016 Author Share Posted October 26, 2016 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Warms up later on. Snow is earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 59 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: One October event doesn't dictate the pattern. I'n not trying to insinuate anything,but that's like trying to say a backdoor front means a cool summer. Of course. Just pure speculation on my part. As always it will be interesting to see what or even if a "seasonal pattern" sets up this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2016 Author Share Posted October 26, 2016 29 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Not for nothing, you have to be encouraged as the ducks are lining up LR for you. Hey PF found this today http://www.matthewparrilla.com/mansfield-stake/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 Seriously though, I just happy to see more regular precipitation events moving through right now. Wish I had gotten my leaves chipped up first but the moisture is good in any form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Snow is earlier I mean next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2016 Author Share Posted October 26, 2016 Phil's getting graupel on the Cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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