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Oct 27th to 29th vigorous Vort max Sn/Rn/wind


Ginx snewx

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It warms a bit near 925 too. I would definitely agree about the ageo part. I'll take a more nrly component please. 

 

The only issue with this setup is that it is so early in the season with no real cryospheric feedback in place yet to strengthen and thicken the cold wedge, so I feel like it won't be quite as stout as it would be in December or something.

But still, the classic physics are still there for a lot of wedging, and the models might be a bit too aggressive with the easterly component.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

The only issue with this setup is that it is so early in the season with no real cryospheric feedback in place yet to strengthen and thicken the cold wedge.

And the timing later in the day hurts a bit. Look how cold temps are back in ern NY where the snow moves in early morning. Still, something to watch as we get closer. ORH definitely has room the wetbulb, especially if we can get maybe some mid level stuff well ahead of the low. Some models show a decent band of precip on what looks like the leading edge of H7 warm front. Maybe it's something where they have a 34F -SN for a time? At any rate, it's all speculation this early.

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

The only issue with this setup is that it is so early in the season with no real cryospheric feedback in place yet to strengthen and thicken the cold wedge, so I feel like it won't be quite as stout as it would be in December or something.

But still, the classic physics are still there for a lot of wedging, and the models might be a bit too aggressive with the easterly component.

Shockingly, I was thinking the same thing.

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For us up in Central New England it would be nice if we radiate real good on Wednesday night and then get the high clouds in here around daybreak.  I would think that would help keep the cold air down near surface level.  If we get several hours of sunshine first we loose the cold surface air.  Maybe I could score a couple of inches before the changeover.  Guess it depends on the track of the secondary and how fast it takes over.   This is far better than taking about endless drought.

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This is looking like a crush job for Rangeley area. That's a super look as the inflow combines and upslopes there. 

 

Mid-levels get pretty warm though on some of these runs...if they somehow keep it all snow, they could get annihilated. It would probably rival some records up there for October snowfalls.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Mid-levels get pretty warm though on some of these runs...if they somehow keep it all snow, they could get annihilated. It would probably rival some records up there for October snowfalls.

Maybe if not there, further northeast....but that's a good look overall. Hopefully it doesn't go too far north.

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33 minutes ago, metagraphica said:

I wonder if this event is foreshadowing the "seasonal pattern" in that we might have a big snow season for interior/northern New England.  Finally a great season for the ski areas coming up?

Keep it there.  As has been discussed most of the day.  This looks like a great setup for the Mtns of ME.  C/NNE look pretty good overall with the setup.  Elevated and interior areas in SNE may see their 1st flakes or light accum before rain.

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37 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Just like the two snow events in October 2011 really foreshadowed a huge interior SNE winter.  

Yeah. Of course some may view this as some sort of anti NNE thing. Absolutely not. Rock on as far as I'm concerned. But October patterns don't mean anything. That would go for any pattern....even one that was kind to interior SNE.

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59 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

One October event doesn't dictate the pattern. 

I'n not trying to insinuate anything,but that's like trying to say a backdoor front means a cool summer. 

Of course.  Just pure speculation on my part.  As always it will be interesting to see what or even if a "seasonal pattern" sets up this year.

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