November 2016 Temperature Forecast Contest and Winter Snowfall Contest

[Roger Smith]

== << Updated Annual Scoring for western and all nine contests Jan to Nov 2016 >> ==

 

FORECASTER __________ DEN_PHX_SEA __ TOTALS _ best scores (mo) _ All Nine Totals __ best scores

 

01 wxallannj _____________ 576 _ 689 _ 761 ____ 2026 ______ 0 1 1 ________6202 (= 6) ___ APR

02 DonSutherland.1 _______ 586 _ 594 _ 831 ____ 2011 ______ 0 0 2 _ Apr ___ 6588 (= 1) __ MAY, NOV

03 Mallow _______________592 _ 601 _ 769 ____ 1962 ______ 3 1 0_Sep,Nov _ 6339 (= 2)

04 Midlo Snow Maker______ 535 _ 651 _ 767 ____ 1953 ______ 1 2 3 _ Mar ____5955 (=10) ___ FEB

 

05 Consensus ___________ 601 _ 598 _ 731 ____ 1930 ______ 0 0 1 _ Jul ____ 6381 (= 2) ___ JUL

 

05 Maxim _______________ 497 _ 596 _ 799 ____ 1892 ______ 0 1 2 _ Sep ___ 6221 (= 5) _ MAR,SEP,OCT

06 Damage in Tolland ______548 _ 502 _ 789 ____ 1839 ______ 1 0 1 _ Jun ___ 6302 (= 4) ___ JUN

07 Rjay _________________551 _ 571 _ 710 ____ 1832 ______ 1 0 1 _ Oct ___ 6083 (= 8) ___ AUG

08 wxdude64 ____________ 587 _ 567 _ 667 ____ 1821 ______ 0 1 2 _ Jan ___ 6304 (= 3) ___ JAN

09 hudsonvalley21 ________ 566 _ 518 _ 665 ____ 1749 ______ 0 1 0 _ Jul ___ 5950 (=11)

10 Roger Smith __________ 463 _ 602 _ 675 ____ 1740 ______ 1 2 0 _ Aug ___ 5588 (=14)

 

11 BKViking _____________ 535 _ 531 _ 659 ____ 1725 ______ 0 0 0 ________ 6039 (= 9)

12 RodneyS _____________518 _ 565 _ 635 ____ 1718 ______ 2 0 0 _ May ___ 6180 (= 7)

13 blazess556 ___________ 504 _ 595 _ 557 ____1656 ______ 1 0 0 _________5947 (=12)

14 Tom _________________ 503 _ 517 _ 545 ____1565 ______ 0 0 1 ________ 5308 (=16)

15 dmillz25 ______________465 _ 448 _ 627 ____1540 ______ 0 0 0 _________5602 (=13)

16 SD __________________ 455 _ 522 _ 554 ____1531 ______ 0 0 1 _  Jul  ___ 5348 (=15)

17 Tenman Johnson@ _____ 487 _ 582 _ 434 ____1503 ______ 2 1 1 _ Feb ___ 5077 (=18)

 

17 Normal _______________510 _ 496 _ 484 ____ 1490 _____ 1 0 1 _ Aug ____ 4688 (=19)

 

18 OHweather@@@ ______ 410 _ 464 _ 484 ____ 1358 ______ 1 0 1 _ Jul  _____ 4433 (=19) ___ JUL

19 Stebo ________________ 397 _ 490 _ 312 ____ 1199 ______ 0 1 0 __________ 5135 (=17)

20 ksammut@@@@@ ____ 306 _ 322 _ 220 _____ 848 ______ 0 1 0 ___________2971 (=20)

______________________________________________________________________

@ for missing months ... other partial scores can be found in earlier tables or in this month's scoring table.

[Roger Smith]

Final Autumn scoring (and updated / final Four Seasons report)

 

The autumn season will conclude the four seasons contest, final scoring for autumn is shown below, with the table of all four seasons included. Scores are 10 for top seasonal total, and then 7 for second highest, 6 for third, etc, until we get to one point for each of 8th, 9th, and 10th. Consensus and Normal are scored and ranked where applicable, but do not affect your scoring ranks.

This table is in the same order as the "all nine" scoring totals. Numbers are totals followed by points awarded.

 

FORECASTER ______ East/central ____ western ____ all nine ___//___ TOTAL POINTS in each division

... ... ... ... ... ... ( autumn seasonal scores and points ) ... ... ... ...//... (win,spr,sum) E/C .... west ..... all nine

 

Maxim ___________ 1290 ___ 7 ___ 580 __ 10 __ 1870 __ 10 __ __ (0,4,5) 16 __ (0,1,0) 11 __ (0,3,1) 14

Damage in Tolland _ 1326 __ 10 ___ 440 ___ 1 __ 1766 ___ 7 __ __ (1,0,7) 18 __ (5,0,1) _7 __ (4,0,7) 18

Mallow ___________1202 ___ 3 ___ 555 ___ 7 ___1757 ___ 6 __ __ (4,7,0) 14 __ (0,1,1) _9 __ (1,5,0) 12

DonSutherland.1 ___1270 ___ 6 ___ 475 ___ 3 ___1745 ___ 5 __ __(7,10,0) 23 __ (0,7,5) 15 __(5,10,1) 21

RJay ____________ 1244 ___ 5 ___ 494 ___ 5 ___1738 ___ 4 __ __ (1,0,2) _ 8 __ (7,0,7) 19 __(7,0,10) 21

... Consensus _____ 1200 ___ 2 ___ 466 ___ 1 ___1666 ___ 3 __ __ (0,1,4) _ 7 __ (5,3,1) _10 __ (2,4,5) 14

Midlo Snow Maker _ 1151 ___ 1 ___ 497 ___ 6 ___ 1648 ___ 3 __ __ (10,0,0) 11 __ (0,3,4) 13 __ (6,1,0) 10

dmillz25 _________ 1232 ___ 4 ___ 409 ___ -- ___ 1641 ___ 2 __ __ (3,0,3) _10__(10,0,0) 10 __(10,0,0) 12

blazess556 _______ 1180 ___ 2 ___ 430 ___ 1 ___ 1610 ___ 1 __ __ (0,0,0) _ 2 __ (0,0,2) _ 3 __(1,0,1) _ 3

wxallannj _________1079 ___ -- ___490 ___ 4 ____1569 ___ 1 __ __ (5,6,0) _11 __ (1,6,6)_17 __ (2,7,0) 10

wxdude64 ________ 1144 ___ 1 ___ 411 ___ -- ___ 1555 ___ 1 __ __ (0,1,6) _8 __ (0,2,0) _ 2 __ (0,2,4) _7

 

RodneyS _________ 1076 ___ 1 ___ 468 ___ 2 ___ 1544 ___ -- __ __ (1,2,10) 14 __(0,10,0) 12 __ (0,6,6) 12

Tom _____________1064 ___ -- ___ 413 ___ -- ___ 1477 ___ -- __ __ (0,0,0) _0 __ (4,0,0) _ 4 __ (0,0,0) _0

BKViking _________ 1047 ___ -- ____417 ___ -- ___ 1464 ___ -- __ __ (0,5,1)_ 6 __ (6,1,0) _ 7 __ (0,4,0) _4

Roger Smith _______ 993 ___ -- ____444 ___ 1 ____1437 ___ -- __ __ (0,1,0) _1 __ (0,0,10) 11 __ (0,0,2) _2

Stebo ____________1036 ___ -- ____306 ___ -- ____1342 ___ -- __ __ (0,0,0) _0 __ (2,0,0) _ 2 __ (0,0,0) _0

hudsonvalley21 _____ 940 ___ -- ___ 327 ___ -- ____1267 ___ -- __ __ (7,1,4) 12 __ (0,4,1) _ 5 __ (3,1,5) _9

SD _______________ 814 ___ -- ___ 361 ___ -- ____1175 ___ -- __ __ (0,0,0) _0 __ (1,0,0) _ 1 __ (1,0,0) _1

(OHweather) _______________________________________________ (0,3,1) _ 4 __ (1,0,3) _ 4 __(0,1,3) _4

(Isotherm) _________________________________________________ (0,0,0) _0 __ (3,0,0) _ 3 __ (0,0,0) _0

(ksammut) _________________________________________________ (2,0,0) _2 __ (0,5,0) _ 5 __ (0,0,0) _0

... Normal ___________ 518 ___ --- ____ 320 ___ -- _____ 838 ___ --- __ __ (0,0,0) _ 0 __ (0,0,0) __ 0 __ (0,0,0) _ 0

______________________________________________________________________

 

TOP FIVE SCORING TOTALS IN EACH DIVISION of the FOUR SEASONS CONTEST

The winning total  in the "all nine" division is 21 for both DonSutherland1 and RJay. Third place goes to Damage in Tolland with 18. Fourth was Maxim (and Consensus) at 14, fifth was shared by Mallow. Dmillz25 and RodneyS all at 12 points.

The winner in the western division is 19 by RJay, with wxallannj second at 17. Third went to DonSutherland.1 with 15, then fourth is MidloSnowMaker at 13, fifth was RodneyS at 12. 

The highest total in the eastern/central division is 23 for DonSutherland.1 with Damage in Tolland at 18. Third place in the eastern/central goes to Maxim with 16, then fourth is a tie between Mallow and RodneyS both with 14 points. 

 

 

 

[Roger Smith]

EXTREME FORECAST UPDATE

________________________________________________________

 

With six more extreme forecasts this month, the annual count is now a rather staggering 57 out of 99, or 58% of the cases. This month, DCA missed qualifying barely as third highest forecast was high score. NYC, BOS did not come that close to making the report.

 

ORD (+6.5) goes to Damage in Tolland (+5.0, highest forecast)

ATL (+4.9) is another win for Damage (+3.8). 

IAH (+4.4) is shared win for Mallow and RodneyS (+3.3, highest forecasts)

DEN (+6.8) is a win for Mallow (+6.5). 

PHX (+3.1) is rated as a win for Midlo Snow Maker and wxallannj at +2.9 

SEA (+5.5) is a win for Midlo Snow Maker (+2.9).

 

UPDATED STANDINGS
 

Damage in Tolland ____9-0

Midlo Snow Maker ____8-1

Maxim _____________ 7-1

Rjay _______________ 6-2

RodneyS ___________ 6-3*

Roger Smith _________5-2

Mallow _____________ 4-0

Tenman Johnson _____3-0

DonSutherland.1 _____ 3-0

dmillz25 ____________ 3-0

wxallannj ___________ 3-0*

ksammut ___________ 2-0

Blazess556 __________2-0

 

Normal _____________ 2-0

 

hudsonvalley21 ______ 1-0

BKViking ___________ 1-0

OHweather __________1-0

SD ________________ 1-0

Tom _______________ 1-0

Stebo ______________ 1-1

debeaches __________ 0-3

 

*plus two "no decisions" __ RodneyS and Quincy (they were closer by forecast back in April, but lost on time penalties to the high scores, and same for wxallannj (PHX, Oct). 

[BTRWx]

How long will Denver snowfall accumulations count towards the contest?  Would "Christmas in July" weather count?

[Roger Smith]

I think that the snowfall season at DEN usually ends in May but I would count anything in June, technically snowfall seasons run from July 1st to June 30th so the contest ends June 30th. There is a recent update and report on scoring in the March thread (updated yesterday). As all contest entrants have at least 7" DEN snow unused, no changes in scoring rank can occur unless we see more than that, and actually it would take about 20" more to make any significant changes. I assume all other stations are done for the season, BOS and ORD have had measurable snowfalls in May. 

[BTRWx]

On 5/1/2017 at 10:58 AM, Roger Smith said:

I think that the snowfall season at DEN usually ends in May but I would count anything in June, technically snowfall seasons run from July 1st to June 30th so the contest ends June 30th. There is a recent update and report on scoring in the March thread (updated yesterday). As all contest entrants have at least 7" DEN snow unused, no changes in scoring rank can occur unless we see more than that, and actually it would take about 20" more to make any significant changes. I assume all other stations are done for the season, BOS and ORD have had measurable snowfalls in May. 

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