November 2016 Temperature Forecast Contest and Winter Snowfall Contest

[Roger Smith]

Two months to go in the close-run 2016 temperature forecast contest(s) ... and time for our bonus snowfall contest for the same nine locations used in the temperature contest. 

For the temperatures, submit anomalies (in F deg) from 1981-2010 normal values, for these locations: 

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX ___ SEA

deadlines for entry to Nov temp contest, 06z Tuesday Nov 1st, 1% penalty per 2h late for first 36h, then 1% per hour 

 

For the snowfall bonus contest, enter your predicted total amounts for the 2016-17 season including any snow that has fallen at time of entry (so far zero but thread will update actual amounts, season ends June 30 but contest usually declared by early May). Contest is based on smallest total error for the nine locations. You can enter as late as Nov 18th (end of day in EST) and you can edit submitted forecasts as the table of entries won't be drawn up until Nov 19th. Note that if you do edit snowfalls after Nov 1st at 06z, temperatures cannot be edited without a late penalty, and a table of entries for temperature forecasts has already appeared; unless I have made a verifiable typo in my table, the table freezes your temperature forecasts. Then the later snowfall table of entries freezes your snowfall entries. This would be a good time to jump in and join our contests as the 2017 contest year actually starts with Dec 2016 in the four seasons portion (the main contest however runs Jan to Dec 2017). We will also welcome any stand-alone snowfall forecasts if you'd like to enter only the winter snowfall contest. 

So place your forecasts for winter 2016-17 total snowfalls for the same nine stations listed above. (PHX fails to register snowfall 80% of all winters). Your forecast can be to the precision of 0.1" as measured. 

Good luck in both of these contests. 

[Mercurial]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX ___ SEA

+1.0 __ +1.2 __ +1.5 ___ -0.7 ___ +0.2 __ -1.4 ____ +2.5 __ +1.0 ___ +1.5

16.5" __ 28.4" _ 45.1" __ 50.3" ___ 0.0" ___ 0.0" ____ 35.2" __ 0.0" ___ 8.9"

[Stebo]

DCA +1.5 18.3"

NYC +1.9 27.8"

BOS +2.1 39.9"

ORD +0.7 48.7"

ATL +2.2 0.8"

IAH +0.7 0.0"

DEN -0.9 48.2"

PHX -0.3 0.0"

SEA -1.9 12.5"

[Maxim]

DCA: +2.0  22.6"

NYC: +1.0  39.2"

BOS: -0.5  50.1"

ORD: +4.5  30.0" 

ATL: +2.5  1.5"

IAH: +2.0  0.0"

DEN: +5.0  47.7"

PHX: +1.5  0.0"

SEA: +2.5  13.4"

[dmillz25]

DCA: +2.5 17"

NYC: +2.5 39"

BOS: +1.9 53"

ORD: +3.0 51"

ATL: +2.0 2"

IAH: +2.0 0"

DEN: +2.0 61"

PHX: +1.5 0"

SEA: +2.0 9"

 

[hudsonvalley21]

DCA +1.0  19.8"

NYC +1.2  30.9"

BOS +1.4  42.9"

ORD +0.1  39.3"

ATL +1.6  0.4"

IAH +0.4  0.0"

DEN +0.3  52.0"

PHX +0.3  0.0"

SEA -0.5  11.1"

[Damage In Tolland]

DCA: +3.5 15"

NYC: +3.0 35"

BOS: +2.5 72"

ORD: +5.0 43"

ATL: +3.8 1"

IAH: +2.5 0.0"

DEN: +2.5 30"

PHX: +1.9 0.0""

SEA: +2.8 4"

[Tom]

DCA: +0.4  22.1"

NYC: +0.2  36.8"

BOS: +0.1  64.6"

ORD: +2.4  57.9"

ATL: +0.5  0.9"

IAH: +1.1 0.0"

DEN: +1.4 63.1"

PHX: +0.8 0.0"

SEA: +1.2  5.4"

[Scotty Lightning]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX ___ SEA

1.0        0.5       0.0          0.0        1.0       1.0             1.0       0.5          0.0

13"      21"       35"          40"        1"        Trace        65"          2"        10"          

[donsutherland1]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX ___ SEA

+3.4 __ +3.1 __ +2.7 ___ +4.5 ___ +3.0 __ +3.0 ____ +4.1 __ +2.5 ___ +2.3

 

Snowfall:

21.5" __ 31.7" _ 61.9" __ 44.9" ___ 1.8" ___ 0.0" ____ 79.5" __ 0.0" ___ 3.8"

 

[Rjay]

DCA +3.0  17"

NYC +3.0  35"

BOS +3.0  60"

ORD +4.0  35"

ATL +3.0  1.0"

IAH +2.0 0"

DEN +3.0  60"

PHX  +1.0  0"

SEA  +1.0  10"

[wxallannj]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX ___ SEA

+2.7 __ +2.5 __ +1.7 ___ +3.0 ___ +2.8 __ +2.4 ____ +2.9 __ +2.9 ___ +2.6

22.7"     31.2"     42.0"       36.0'      5.7'        0.2"         47.3"      0.0"        7.8"

[Mallow]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ______ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ______ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

+0.9 _ +0.7 __ +0.5 _____ +4.0 __ +1.1 _ +3.3 ______ +6.5 _ +2.1 __ +2.5

33.0 __ 42.5 __ 51.1 _____ 40.7 ___ 1.5 ___ 0.0 ______ 55.5 __ 0.0 ___ 1.1

[Roger Smith]

DCA ___ NYC ___ BOS ____ ORD ___ ATL ___ IAH ____ DEN ___ PHX ___ SEA

--0.2 __ --0.4 __ --0.7 ___ --2.0 ___ +0.1 ___ +0.2 ___ +3.5 ___ +1.5 __ +2.0

35.7" __ 49.0" __ 75.5" ___ 40.0" ___ 2.0" ___ 0.1" ____ 48.0" __ 0.0" __ 15.5"

(snowfall forecasts can be edited or added any time before Nov 16th 03z).

[bkviking]

DCA +2.4  16"

NYC +2.5 40"

BOS +2.1 57

ORD +3.3 33"

ATL +2.8 2"

IAH +1.8 0"

DEN +1.8 55"

PHX  +1.4 0"

SEA  +1.4 9"

 

[RodneyS]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX ___ SEA

+0.9 __ +0.5 __ +0.8 ___ +3.8 ___ +1.0 __ +3.3 ____ +2.8 __ +2.2 ___ +2.0

11.1" __ 18.1" _ 25.1" __ 35.1" ___ 0.0" ___ 0.0" ____ 29.1" __ 0.0" ___ 7.1"

[BTRWx]

DCA: -0.4F  12.5"

NYC: -0.3F  24"

BOS: -0.2F  42"

ORD: +0.4F  45"

ATL: -0.3F  0.3"

IAH: -0.1F  0.0"

DEN: 0.0F  48"

PHX +0.3F  0.0"

SEA +0.3F  11"

[blazess556]

Dca: +1.7 

NYC:+1.9

Bos: +2.1

ord: +0.7

atl: +1.5

iah: +2.6

Den: +1.9

phx: +1.7

sea: 1.4

 

[Roger Smith]

Table of entries for November 2016

 

FORECASTER ______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

  

Damage in Tolland _________ +3.5_ +3.0_ +2.5 ___ +5.0_ +3.8_ +2.5 ____ +2.5_ +1.9_ +2.8

DonSutherland.1 ___________ +3.4_ +3.1_ +2.7 ___ +4.5_ +3.0_ +3.0 ____ +4.1_ +2.5_ +2.3

RJay _____________________ +3.0_ +3.0_ +3.0 ___ +4.0_ +3.0_ +2.0 ____ +3.0_ +1.0_ +1.0

wxdude64 _______ (-3%) ___ +3.0_ +2.1_ +1.1 ___ +2.2_ +3.3_ +2.5 ____ +2.8_ +0.9_ +0.5

wxallannj _________________ +2.7_ +2.5_ +1.7 ___ +3.0_ +2.8_ +2.4 ____ +2.9_ +2.9_ +2.6

dmillz25 __________________+2.5_ +2.5_ +1.9 ___ +3.0_ +2.0_ +2.0 ____ +2.0_ +1.5_ +2.0

BKViking _________________ +2.4_ +2.5_ +2.1 ___ +3.3_ +2.8_ +1.8 ____ +1.8_ +1.4_ +1.4

Maxim ___________________ +2.0_ +1.0_ --0.5 ___ +4.5_ +2.5_ +2.0 ____ +5.0_ +1.5_ +2.5

blazess556 ________________ +1.7_ +1.9_ +2.1 ___ +0.7_ +1.5_ +2.6 ____ +1.9_ +1.7_ +1.4

 

Consensus _________________+1.7_ +1.9_ +1.4 ___ +3.0_ +2.2_ +2.0 ____ +2.5_ +1.5_ +2.0

 

Stebo ____________________ +1.5_ +1.9_ +2.1 ___ +0.7_ +2.2_ +0.7 ____ --0.9_ --0.3_ --1.9

Midlo Snow Maker __________ +1.5_ +1.2_ +0.2 ___ +2.0_ +1.9_ +2.5 ____ +3.8_ +2.9_ +2.9

Mercurial _________________ +1.0_ +1.2_ +1.5 ___ --0.7_ +0.2_ --1.4 ____ +2.5_ +1.0_ +1.5

hudsonvalley21 ____________ +1.0_ +1.2_ +1.4 ___ +0.1_ +1.6_ +0.4 ____ +0.3_ +0.3_ --0.5

SD _______________________+1.0_ +0.5__ 0.0 ____ 0.0_ +1.0_ +1.0 ____ +1.0_ +0.5__ 0.0

Mallow ___________________ +0.9_ +0.7_ +0.5 ___ +4.0_ +1.1_ +3.3 ____ +6.5_ +2.1_ +2.5

RodneyS __________________+0.9_ +0.5_ +0.8 ___ +3.8_ +1.0_ +3.3 ____ +2.8_ +2.2_ +2.0

Tom _____________________ +0.4_ +0.2_ +0.1 ___ +2.4_ +0.5_ +1.1 ____ +1.4_ +0.8_ +1.2

 

Normal ____________________ 0.0__ 0.0__ 0.0 _____ 0.0__ 0.0__ 0.0 ______ 0.0__ 0.0__ 0.0

 

Roger Smith _______________--0.2_ --0.4_ --0.7 ___ --2.0_ +0.1_ +0.2 ____ +3.5_ +1.5_ +2.0

BTRwx ___________________ --0.4_ --0.3_ --0.2 ___ +0.4_ --0.3_ --0.1 _____ 0.0_ +0.3_ +0.3

___________________________________________________________________

Nov 2 21z _ I have added Consensus which is the median of the 17 forecasts from regular forecasters (to preserve continuity in the annual contest), this is subject to change as one regular forecaster (TJ) has not posted yet, meanwhile, welcome to Mercurial and BTRwx.

... snowfall forecasts will remain open for edit to Nov 15th and a table will appear after that). 

 

 

[Midlo Snow Maker]

DCA +1.5

NYC +1.2

BOS +0.2

ORD +2.0

ATL +1.9

IAH +2.5

DEN +3.8

PHX  +2.9

SEA  +2.9

[wxdude64]

Oops!

DCA:  +3.0 19.9

NYC:  +2.1 30.8

BOS:  +1.1 41.1

ORD:  +2.2 56.7

ATL:  +3.3  2.7

IAH:  +2.5  0.5

DEN:  +2.8 77.5

PHX:  +0.9  0.0

SEA:  +0.5  4.8

 

[Roger Smith]

Looking for the table of entries? Scroll back three posts ^^^

Meanwhile, here's the opening salvo of the month's anomaly tracker, and (as of 7th) it has been warm (except in New England) ... plus updates to mid-month ... 77 deg DEN on 15th ... near 80 predicted today, but snow in forecast for tomorrow however, much colder for next few days ...

as of 16th, warmth is set to flip over to cold in east/central regions around 19th, p22 is based on slight rises from 15th to 19th then sharp falls. Countdown to begin on 19th, new post.

 

_____________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS _____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

________ (7d) _______ +5.7 _ +3.2 _ +0.5 ___+11.7 _ +9.0 _ +9.1 ____ +8.9 _ +3.2 _ +6.7

_______ (10d) _______ +5.1 _ +2.8 _ +1.1 ___+10.8 _ +7.0 _ +7.1 ____ +9.6 _ +4.9 _ +7.6

_______ (13d) _______ +3.7 _ +2.1 _ +1.0 ___ +8.7 _ +5.4 _ +5.8 ____ +9.3 _ +5.3 _ +7.6

_______ (15d) _______ +3.5 _ +2.5 _ +1.8 ___ +8.5 _ +4.8 _ +5.7 ___ +10.3 _ +5.6 _ +7.3

 

_______(p22d) _______+2.5 _ +1.5 _ +0.5 ____ +6.0 _ +2.9 _ +4.8 ____ +7.0 _ +3.5 _ +5.0

______ (p30d) _______ +1.0 _ +0.2 _ --0.5 ____ +3.0 _ +2.0 _ +3.2 ____ +5.0 _ +2.2 _ +3.0

 

Based on these provisionals, highest scores would be 524 (Mallow) in the original six portion with anyone between Consensus and Normal in the table fairly close behind that, and Maxim with 276 in the western (Mallow close to that). Tables won't appear for a week yet though.

 

[Roger Smith]

Notice re: snowfall contest

________________________________

 

I just sent messages to four participants in our regular contest to remind them about this bonus contest. The message tells them to submit a forecast by end of Friday 18th. Therefore those of you who already entered can edit any of your forecasts before that time as well. I will make up the table of forecasts on Saturday Nov 19th. No need to post as I won't be recording your current forecasts until Saturday. 

 

[Midlo Snow Maker]

On November 1, 2016 at 1:43 AM, Midlo Snow Maker said:

 

DCA  18.0"

NYC 35.0"

BOS 65.0"

ORD 45.0"

ATL 3.0"

IAH 0.0"

DEN 48.0"

PHX  0.1"

SEA  9.0"

 

 

[Roger Smith]

Winter 2016-17 Snowfall Forecast Contest

 

Forecasts appear in order of least to most DCA snowfall, after that it's whatever that person has for each location -- maximum forecast in bold and minimum shown in italics (except for IAH and PHX where most have 0.0").

Consensus is the median value (mean of 9th and 10th ranked forecasts). Normal values from 1981 to 2010.

 

FORECASTER ____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

RodneyS ________________11.1" _18.1" _25.1" __ 35.1" _ 0.0" _ 0.0" ___ 29.1" _ 0.0" _ 7.1"

BTRwx _________________ 12.5" _24.0" _42.0" __ 45.0" _ 0.3" _ 0.0" ___ 48.0" _ 0.0" _11.0"

SD _____________________13.0" _21.0" _35.0" __ 40.0" _ 1.0" _ 0.0" ___ 65.0" _2.0" _10.0"   

Damage in Tolland ________15.0" _35.0" _72.0" __ 43.0" _ 1.0" _ 0.0" ___ 30.0" _ 0.0" _ 4.0"

 

Normal ______________15.4"_25.8"_43.8" __ 36.3"_2.9"_0.1" __ 53.8" _0.0"_6.8"

 

BKViking ________________16.0" _40.0" _ 57.0" __ 33.0" _ 2.0" _ 0.0" ___ 55.0" _ 0.0" _ 9.0"

Mercurial ________________16.5" _28.4" _45.1" __ 50.3" _ 0.0" _ 0.0" ___ 35.2" _ 0.0" _ 8.9"

RJay ___________________ 17.0" _35.0" _60.0" __ 35.0" _ 1.0" _ 0.0" ___ 60.0" _ 0.0" _10.0"

dmillz25 ________________ 17.0" _39.0" _53.0" __ 51.0" _ 2.0" _ 0.0" ___ 61.0" _ 0.0" _ 9.0"

Midlo Snow Maker ________ 18.0" _35.0" _65.0" __ 45.0" _ 3.0" _ 0.0" ___ 48.0" _ 0.1" _ 9.0"

 

Consensus ______________ 18.2" _33.1" _50.6" __ 41.9" _ 1.0" _ 0.0" ___ 50.1" _ 0.0" _ 9.0"

 

Stebo ___________________18.3" _27.8" _39.9" __ 48.7" _ 0.8" _ 0.0" ___ 48.2" _ 0.0" _12.5"

hudsonvalley21 ___________19.8" _30.9" _42.9" __ 39.3" _ 0.4" _ 0.0" ___ 52.0" _ 0.0" _11.1"

wxdude64 _______________19.9" _30.8" _41.1" __ 56.7" _ 2.7" _ 0.5"___ 77.5" _ 0.0" _ 4.8"

DonSutherland.1 _________ 21.5" _31.7" _61.9" __ 44.9" _ 1.8" _ 0.0" ___ 79.5"_ 0.0" _ 3.8"

Tom ___________________ 22.1" _36.8" _64.6" __ 57.9"_ 0.9" _ 0.0" ___ 63.1" _ 0.0" _ 5.4"

Maxim__________________ 22.6" _39.2" _50.1" __ 30.0" _ 1.5" _ 0.0" ___ 47.7" _ 0.0" _13.4"

wxallannj _______________ 22.7" _31.2" _42.0" __ 36.0" _ 5.7"_ 0.2" ___ 47.3" _ 0.0" _ 7.8"

Mallow _________________ 33.0" _42.5" _51.1" __ 40.7" _ 1.5" _ 0.0" ___ 55.5" _ 0.0" _ 1.1"

Roger Smith _____________ 35.7"_49.0"_75.5"__ 40.0" _ 2.0" _ 0.1" ___ 48.0" _ 0.0"_15.5"

 

[Roger Smith]

Countdown to final anomalies starts today ... will continue daily after 20th.

________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

_________(18d) __________+3.7 _+3.2 _+2.8 __ +9.4 _+5.4_ +5.9 ___ +8.6 _+5.0 _+6.3

_________(20d) __________+3.5 _+2.6 _+2.6 __ +7.7 _+4.4_ +4.5 ___ +8.3 _+5.0 _+6.5

_________(21d) __________+3.0 _+2.1 _+2.0 __ +7.0 _+4.0_ +4.2 ___ +8.7 _+4.9 _+6.4

_________(22d) __________+2.8 _+1.7 _+1.7 __ +6.5 _+3.8_ +4.4 ___ +8.3 _+4.7 _+6.3

________ (23d) __________+2.3 _+1.4 _+1.5 __ +6.4 _+3.8_ +4.3 ___ +8.0 _+4.5 _+6.0

________ (24d) __________+2.4 _+1.3 _+1.2 __ +6.3 _+4.2_ +4.2 ___ +7.8 _+4.4 _+6.0

________ (25d) __________+2.5 _+1.4 _+1.3 __ +6.0 _+4.5_ +4.3 ___ +7.8 _+4.4 _+5.9

________ (26d) __________+2.4 _+1.4 _+1.2 __ +6.0 _+4.3_ +4.2 ___ +7.9 _+4.5 _+5.8

________ (27d) __________+2.3 _+1.4 _+1.2 __ +5.9 _+4.1_ +4.2 ___ +7.9 _+4.2 _+5.6

________ (28d) __________+2.2 _+1.3 _+1.1 __ +6.1 _+4.2_ +4.4 ___ +7.7 _+3.8 _+5.5

________ (29d) __________+2.5 _+1.7 _+1.2 __ +6.4 _+4.5_ +4.6 ___ +7.3 _+3.5 _+5.5

________ (30d) _________ +3.0 _+2.1_+1.5 __+6.5_+4.9_+4.4 __+6.8 _+3.1 _+5.5

 

Dec 1st at 16z -- Final anomalies are now updated. Tables will become final soon, the word provisional will disappear from their headers when that is the case. 

[Roger Smith]

Final scoring for November 2016

 

 

FORECASTER ____________ DCA_NYC_BOS___east ____ ORD_ATL_IAH___cent____TOTAL

  

Damage in Tolland _________ 90 _ 82 _ 80 ___ 252____ 85 _ 78 _ 62 ___ 225 _____ 477

DonSutherland.1 ___________ 92 _ 80 _ 76 ___ 248 ____ 75 _ 62 _ 72 ___ 209 _____ 457

wxallannj _________________94 _ 92 _ 96  ___ 282 ____ 45 _ 58 _ 60 ___ 163 _____ 445

wxdude64 ________________100 _100_ 92 _ 292 ______ 29 _ 68 _ 62 _ 158 __ 441

_______________ (-3%) ____ 97 _ 97 _ 89 ___283 ____ 28 _ 66 _ 60 ___ 154 _____ 437

RJay ____________________100 _ 82 _ 70 ___ 252 ____ 65 _ 62 _ 52 ___ 179 _____ 431

BKViking __________________88 _ 92 _ 88 ___ 268 ____ 51 _ 58 _ 48 ___ 157 _____ 425

dmillz25 __________________90 _ 92 _ 92 ___ 274 ____ 45 _ 42 _ 52 ___ 139 _____ 413

 

Consensus ________________74 _ 96 _ 98*___ 268 ____ 45 _ 46 _ 52 ___ 143 _____ 411

 

Maxim ___________________ 80 _ 78 _ 60 ___ 218 ____ 75 _ 52 _ 52 ___ 179 _____ 397

Mallow ___________________ 58 _ 72 _ 80 ___ 210 ____ 65 _ 24 _ 78 ___ 167 _____ 377

RodneyS __________________58 _ 68 _ 86 ___ 212 ____ 61 _ 22 _ 78 ___ 161 _____ 373

blazess556 _______________  74 _ 96 _ 88 ___ 258 ____ 07 _ 32 _ 64 ___ 103 _____ 361

Midlo Snow Maker __________ 70 _ 82 _ 74___ 226 ____ 25 _ 40 _ 62 ___ 127 _____ 353

Stebo ____________________ 70 _ 96 _ 88 ___ 254 ____ 07 _ 46 _ 26 ___ 079 _____ 333

hudsonvalley21 ____________ 60 _ 82 _98*___ 240 ____ 01 _ 34 _ 20 ___ 055 _____ 295

Tom _____________________ 48 _ 62 _ 72 ___ 182 ____ 33 _ 12 _ 34 ___ 079 _____ 261

SD _______________________60 _ 68 _ 70 ___ 198 ____ 00 _ 22 _ 32 ___ 054 _____ 252

Mercurial _________________ 60 _ 82 _100___ 242 ____ 00 _ 06 _ 00 ___ 006 _____ 248

 

Normal ____________________40 _ 58 _ 70 ___ 168 ____ 00 _ 02 _ 12 ___ 014 _____ 182

 

BTRwx ____________________32 _ 52 _ 66 ___ 150 ____ 04 _ 00 _ 10 ___ 014 _____ 164

Roger Smith _______________ 36 _ 50 _ 56 ___ 142 ____ 00 _ 04 _ 16 ___ 020 _____ 162

_______________________________________________

* these are shown in annual contest table as high scores (vs regular entrants)

[Roger Smith]

Final scoring for November 2016 -- western and all nine contests

 

FORECASTER ______________DEN_PHX_SEA____TOTAL_______All nine (= rank)

  

Mallow ___________________97 _ 80 _ 45_____222 _________ 599 (= 4)

Midlo Snow Maker _________ 58 _ 96_ 53 _____ 207 _________ 560 (= 6)

Maxim ___________________82 _ 68 _ 45 _____ 195 _________ 592 (= 5)

DonSutherland.1 ___________64 _ 88 _ 41 _____ 193 _________ 650 (= 1)

wxallannj _________________40 _ 96 _ 47 _____ 183 _________ 628 (= 3)

Damage in Tolland _________ 32 _ 76 _ 51 _____ 159 _________ 636 (= 2)

Roger Smith _______________52 _ 68 _ 35 _____ 155 _________ 317 (=17)

RodneyS __________________38 _ 82 _ 35 _____ 155 _________ 528 (=11)

 

Consensus ________________ 32 _ 68 _ 35 _____ 135 _________ 546 (= 7t)

 

dmillz25 __________________22 _ 68 _ 35 _____ 125 _________ 538 (= 8)

RJay _____________________42 _ 58 _ 15 _____ 115 _________ 546 (= 7)

blazess556 ________________20 _ 72 _ 23 _____ 115 _________ 476 (=12)

Mercurial _________________ 32 _ 58 _ 25 _____ 115 _________ 363 (=14)

BKViking __________________18 _ 66 _ 23 _____ 107 _________ 532 (=10)

wxdude64 ________________ 38 _ 56 _ 05 _ 099

____________ (-3%) _______ 37 _ 54 _ 05 _____ 096 _________ 533 (= 9)

Tom _____________________ 14 _ 54 _ 19 _____ 087 _________ 348 (=15)

SD ______________________ 10 _ 48 _ 00 _____ 058 _________ 310 (=18)

BTRwx ___________________ 00 _ 44 _ 03 _____ 047 _________ 211 (=19)

 

Normal ___________________ 00 _ 38 _ 00 _____ 038 _________ 220 (=19)

 

hudsonvalley21 ____________ 03 _ 44 _ 00 _____ 047 _________ 342 (= 16)

Stebo ____________________ 00 _ 32 _ 00 _____ 032 _________ 365 (=13)

______________________________________________________________

 

Extreme forecast report

DCA missed qualifying barely as third highest forecast was high score. NYC, BOS did not come that close to making the report.

ORD (+6.5) goes to Damage in Tolland (+5.0, highest forecast)

ATL (+4.9) is another win for Damage (+3.8). 

IAH (+4.4) is shared win for Mallow and RodneyS (+3.3, highest forecasts)

DEN (+6.8) is a win for Mallow (+6.5). 

PHX (+3.1) is rated as a win for Midlo Snow Maker and wxallannj at +2.9 

SEA (+5.5) is a win for Midlo Snow Maker (+2.9).

[Roger Smith]

I will post the updated annual tables following this summary of  the top 18 scores for all who have entered every month or all but one month in each division are listed below with total scores before time penalties available for comparison also:

 

(All nine)

Rank/ FORECASTER ____ SCORE (diff) ______ Rank/ Total score before time penalties (if applicable)

 

1 DonSutherland.1 ____ 6588 (leader) _______ 1

... 2 consensus _______ 6381 (-207) _________2

2 Mallow ____________ 6339 (-249) _________3

3 wxdude64 _________ 6304 (-284) _________ 4 ... 6341

4 Damage in Tolland __ 6302 (-286) _________ 5

5 Maxim ____________ 6221 (-367) _________ 8

6 wxallannj __________6202 (-386) _________ 2 ... 6380

7 RodneyS __________ 6180 (-408) _________ 6 ... 6228

8 Rjay ______________ 6083 (-505) _________ 9 ... 6107

9 BKViking ___________6039 (-549) _________ 7 ... 6245

10 Midlo Snow Maker __5955 (-631) _________11 ... 5982

12 hudsonvalley21 ____ 5950 (-638) _________12

12 Blazess556 ________ 5947 (-641) _________10 ... 6000

13 Roger Smith _______ 5588 (-1000) ________13

14 DMillz25 __________ 5602 (-986) _________ 14

15 SD _______________5348 (-1240) ________ 15

16 Tom _____________ 5308 (-1280) ________ 16

17 Stebo ____________ 5135 (-1453) ________ 17  ... 5152

18 Tenman Johnson ___ 5077 (-1511) ________ 18

 

19 Normal ___________ 4688 (-1900) ________ 19

 

(Original six)

1 DonSutherland.1 _____ 4577 (leader) ________1 

2 wxdude64 __________ 4483 (-94) __________ 2 ... 4513

3 Damage in Tolland ___ 4463 (-114) _________ 4

4 RodneyS ____________4462 (-115) _________ 3 ... 4496

..4 consensus _________ 4451 (-116) __________4

5 Mallow _____________ 4377 (-200) __________6

6 Maxim _____________ 4329 (-248) __________ 7

7 BKViking ____________4314 (-263) __________5 ... 4446

8 blazess556 __________4291 (-286) __________ 8 ... 4326

9 Rjay _______________ 4251 (-326) __________10 ... 4260

10 hudsonvalley21 _____ 4201 (-376) __________11

11 wxallannj __________ 4176 (-401) __________ 9 ... 4309 

12 Dmillz25 ___________ 4062 (-515) _________ 12

13 Midlo Snow Maker ___ 4002 (-575) _________ 13 ... 4023

14 Stebo _____________ 3936 (-641) __________14 ... 3951

15 Roger Smith ________ 3848 (-729) _________ 15

16 SD ________________3817 (-760) _________ 16

17 Tom _______________3743 (-834) _________ 17

18 Tenman Johnson _____3574 (-1003) ________ 18

 

19 Normal ____________ 3198 (-1379) _________19

 

(western)

 

1 wxallannj ___________ 2026 (leader) _________ 1 ... 2071

2 DonSutherland.1 _____ 2011 (-15) ___________ 2

3 Mallow _____________ 1962 (-64) ___________ 3 

4 Midlo Snow Maker ____ 1953 (-73) ___________ 4 ... 1959

.. 5 consensus _________ 1930 (-96) ___________ 5

5 Maxim ______________ 1892 (-134) ___________ 5

6 Damage in Tolland ____ 1839 (-187) ___________ 7

7 Rjay ________________ 1832 (-194) ___________ 6 ... 1840

8 wxdude64 ___________ 1821 (-205) ___________ 8... 1832

9 hudsonvalley21 _______ 1749 (-277) ___________10

10 Roger Smith ________ 1740 (-286) ___________ 11

11 BKViking ____________1725 (-301) ___________ 9 ... 1821

12 RodneyS ____________1718 (-308) ___________12 ... 1732

13 blazess556 __________1656 (-370) ___________ 13 ... 1668

14 Tom _______________ 1565 (-461) ___________ 14

15 DMillz25 ____________ 1540 (-486) ___________ 15

16 SD _________________1531 (-495) ___________ 16

17 Tenman Johnson _____ 1503 (-523) ___________ 17

 

18 Normal _____________ 1490 (-536) ___________ 18

 

18 OHweather __________ 1358 (-668) ___________18 ... 1396

19 Stebo _______________1199 (-827) ___________19 ... 1201

__________________________________________

* numbers in brackets are points behind leader. 

 

 

 

[Roger Smith]

===--<<<< UPDATED ANNUAL SCORING JAN to NOV 2016 >>>>--===

Set to 100% to prevent line overflow.

__FORECASTER ___ DCA_NYC_BOS __ east ___ ORD_ATL_IAH __ cent __ TOTAL __ Best scores

 

01 DonSutherland.1 __ 769 . 853 . 766 __ 2388 ___ 702 . 707 . 780 __2189 __ 4577 __ 010011 . 1. 1 ..MAY

02 wxdude64 _______ 771 . 838 . 819 __ 2428 ___ 618 . 693 . 744 __ 2055 __ 4483 __ 111111 .2. 0

03 Damage in Tolland _835 . 806 . 744 __ 2385 ___ 639 . 799 . 640 __ 2078 __ 4463__311130 .1.2  JUL, NOV

04 RodneyS ________ 745 . 816 . 808 __ 2369 ___ 608 . 679 . 806 __ 2093 __ 4462 __ 221032. 2 . 1

 

05 Consensus_______ 755 . 856 . 780 __ 2391 ___ 660 . 699 . 714 __ 2073 __ 4464 __ 001000 . 0 . 0

 

05 Mallow___________659 . 818 . 792 __ 2269 ___ 727 . 573 . 808 __ 2108 __ 4377 __ 110003. 0 . 0 .

06 Maxim __________ 687 . 736 . 808 __ 2231 ___ 635 . 715 . 748 __ 2098 __ 4329 __ 102221 . 1 . 3

_____________________________________________________________________________________ MAR,SEP,OCT

07 BKViking ________ 665 . 818 . 759 __ 2242 ___ 693 . 704 . 675 __ 2072 __ 4314 __ 000210 . 0 . 1 ..JAN

08 blazess556 _______693 . 828 . 786 __ 2307 ___ 556 . 710 . 718 __ 1984 __ 4291 __ 001011 . 0 . 0

09 Rjay ____________794 . 737 . 657 __ 2188 ___ 696 . 768 . 599 __ 2063 __ 4251 __ 321211 . 1 . 1 ..AUG

10 hudsonvalley21 ___ 671 . 790 . 780 __ 2241 ___ 691 . 633 . 636 __ 1960 __ 4201 __ 001100 . 0 . 0

 

11 wxallannj ________ 698 . 793 . 757 __ 2248 ___ 592 . 613 . 723 __ 1928 __ 4176 __010100 . 0 . 1 ..APR

12 dmillz25 _________ 702 . 764 . 710 __ 2176 ___ 641 . 643 . 602 __ 1886 __ 4062 __ 021201 . 2 . 0

13 MidloSnowMaker __689 . 749 . 695 __ 2133 ___ 630 . 625 . 614 __ 1869 __ 4002 __ 011010 . 1 . 0 ..FEB

14 Stebo___________ 660 . 723 . 710 __ 2093 ___ 525 . 672 . 646 __ 1843 __ 3936 __ 001001 . 1 . 1

15 Roger Smith _____ 715 . 672 . 630 __ 2017 ___ 568 . 589 . 674 __ 1831 __ 3848 __ 400101 . 0 . 0

16 SD _____________627 . 744 . 692 __ 2063 ___ 530 . 558 . 666 __ 1754 __ 3817 __ 00110. 0 . 0

17 Tom____________ 631 . 696 . 672 __ 1999 ___ 535 . 557 . 652 __ 1744 __ 3743 __ 000000 . 0 . 1 .. JUN

18 Tenman Johnson@ 591 . 628 . 644 __ 1863 ___ 562 . 571 . 578 __ 1711 __ 3574 __ 210100 . 1 . 0

19 Normal__________ 514 . 604 . 590 __ 1708 ___ 454 . 392 . 644 __ 1490 __ 3198 __ 000001 . 1 . 0

19 OHweather@@@__487 . 607 . 559 __ 1653 ___ 397 . 541 . 484 __ 1422 __ 3075 __ 000010. 0 . 0

20 ksammut@@@@@ 413 . 397 . 360 __ 1170 ___ 269 . 338 . 346 ___ 953 __ 2123 __ 111001 . 1 . 0

______________________________________________

@  missed months (Nov for TJ, Sept,Oct, Nov for Ohwx and July to Nov for ksammut)

... other partial scores can be found in earlier tables including two new entrants this month.