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2016/17 Drought & Fire Concerns


NWNC2015

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1 hour ago, griteater said:

Latest drought monitor / worst map from the 2007 drought

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That's a perfect comparison.  Thank you for posting.  It looks like 2007 had more top end drought conditions but it looks to me like this year has the potential to be more widespread if things continue down this path. 

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14 hours ago, LithiaWx said:

You're probably going to see a lot of it on your way down if you're driving.  I'm not familiar with what's happening out west into bama but it does look like they have some fires and smoke like GA/TN/SC/NC.

Yeah, I've been talking to the chief at my old station in Columbus, GA and he says it hasn't been THAT bad outside of a day or two. The only days that could suck down there is Thanksgiving night/Friday as HP moves just north of y'all, giving us a N-NE wind. That would push the smoke more towards W Georgia/E Alabama. 

And 2007 is a good analog for this. Take away Hermine & Matthew's rain and there would be a whole lot more red on the drought monitor for coastal sections of FL/GA/SC/NC. Hell, we're now talking about drought in Charlottesville, VA as we're running a 5-7"+ deficit for the year. Sure, it's not as bad as you guys, but it's not looking good. :( 

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3 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said:

Does anyone have a projected wind map for this weekend for the Mountains? curious as to how bad it's supposed to get with the front coming through. wind + dry (flurries won't do anything)+ fire is not a good combo.

The 850 winds from the latest euro looks like they will be screaming out of the NW from around 30 to 40 knots .  Maybe advisory level.

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Posted: Thursday, November 17, 2016 6:14 pm

At 6:15 p.m. Thursday, firefighters were battling a wildfire off Hose Road in the Brushy Mountains of southern Wilkes County near the Alexander County line.

The Brushy Mountain Fire Department was dispatched to the blaze a little before 5 p.m. after someone in the area reported seeing smoke.

The fire appeared to a substantial distance off Hose Road, which is off Bethany Church Road. Hose Road connects with Gilreath Court Road in Alexander in an area with thousands of acres of forestland.

The Moravian Falls Fire Department and N.C. Forest Service Fire Attack Support Team personnel were dispatched to assist with the effort.

The current size of the fire isn't known, but a firefighter said around 5:30 p.m. that it appeared to cover at least two acres then.

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2 hours ago, Met1985 said:

The 850 winds from the latest euro looks like they will be screaming out of the NW from around 30 to 40 knots .  Maybe advisory level.

It will probably change, but GSP says the NAM shows 65kts at 850mb at one point over the weekend along the eastern slopes of the mountains. They planned on mentioning damaging winds in the hazardous weather outlook for that area. The Lake Lure fire would probably break all containment if that happens.

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I think a north-west wind will be good for my area? Should blow the smoke and bad air toward Charlotte instead?

 

... Increased fire danger for Saturday afternoon through Sunday across southwest Virginia and northwest North Carolina... A strong cold front will move through the region Saturday. Behind the front... winds will increase from the northwest to around 15 to 30 mph... with occasional gusts to near 40 to near 55 mph possible. The highest wind gusts will occur across the highest elevations of northwest North Carolina Saturday afternoon into Sunday. These winds combined with low relative humidities of 28-48 percent and dry Leaf litter will lead to an increased danger of rapid fire growth Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Outdoor burning is discouraged Saturday through Sunday... as any fires could quickly grow out of control.

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9 minutes ago, NWNC2015 said:

Anyone else nervous about the high winds coming? Maybe it will blow the fire out? Curious to see also if it reignites any wildfires that were put out (Brushy Mountain)...lots of unknowns. 

That's not funny.  The mods really do need to ban your trolling ass like Jon said. 

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9 hours ago, LithiaWx said:

That's not funny.  The mods really do need to ban your trolling ass like Jon said. 

I believe most of the public, including myself, doesn't have a good understanding of thermodynamics. Wind will blow out campground fires, house fires, and lower scale fires. I want to know if low scale wildfires (x amount of acres) can be put out by the upcoming (x speed of wind)?

I'm sure if I lived in California I would have some of these numbers in front of me on paper, will continue research. 

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2 minutes ago, NWNC2015 said:

Except for small scale fires according to Reddit. Wind does blow out house fires. My question is....can certain small wildfires be blown out? The Brushy Mountain fire here was only 2 acres. 

So long as their is fuel to burn no. California frequently gets those very strong santa ana winds and I've never heard of a wildfire being blown out. 

Winds are really howling today....sustained in the 20 to 25mph range with frequent gusts into the 30s...had a top gust near 35mph. Atlanta has had gusts as high as 40. really concerned about those fires.

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4 hours ago, NWNC2015 said:

Except for small scale fires according to Reddit. Wind does blow out house fires. My question is....can certain small wildfires be blown out? The Brushy Mountain fire here was only 2 acres. 

I've been a firefighter for six years I can assure you wind is never a good thing!!! Its a fireman's worst nightmare!!! And it does not blow house fires out lmao maybe a match or lighter.......smh

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I've been reading that when winds exceed a certain threshold, the fire manager can pull the firefighters from the fire for safety reasons. Does anyone know what generally that threshold would be? they pull all aircraft after 20 mph so was curious as to how bad it needed to be to pull the fighters away.  

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34 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said:

I've been reading that when winds exceed a certain threshold, the fire manager can pull the firefighters from the fire for safety reasons. Does anyone know what generally that threshold would be? they pull all aircraft after 20 mph so was curious as to how bad it needed to be to pull the fighters away.  

 
 

Lots of elements to that decision. In addition to the wind, humidity, terrain, types of vegetation, closeness and number of dwellings and possibility of the development of a crowning fire are all taken into consideration. 

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1 hour ago, AsheCounty48 said:

Sad to report there is at last check of 3 hours ago a wildfire burning in west jefferson, NC. Started this morning. It may have been contained as of this post, took awhile to be able to get on here.

We left WJ this morning, headed back home to Raleigh.  We took 16 into Wilkesboro @ 421.  Just past Glendale Springs, we saw smoke to the south.  That's unlikely to be the fire you are describing, but there was something pretty big burning in that area.

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