2016/17 Drought & Fire Concerns

[NWNC2015]

I think we are going to need this based on the continuous modeling going forward into the new year and current conditions. 

I expect the Severe Drought to expand in south-west NC to include parts of the central mountains and foothills. The Moderate Drought will likely cover the western Piedmont of North Carolina, northern foothills, and possibly sneak into South-West Virginia. 

South Carolina and Georgia are already experiencing Extreme to Exceptional Drought and I do not see much relief before Christmas. Some winter rains are possible late down there, but I expect it to be dryer and colder further north-east into the Carolina's. 

 

[GaStorm]

I think jshetley should of started this thread! Lol. Hard to believe how different the climate has been here compared to the Carolinas where Matthew came through. Maybe we will get lucky and have a late storm in the gulf. 

[CherokeeGA]

It's terrible here.  We've moved the bermuda only twice since August 1, and the last time was 5 weeks ago.  It's been brown and dormant most of the summer.

The leaves have been turning for a couple of weeks, but it's not pretty.  Mostly they are just drying up and falling off.  All the plants are really distressed.  Hoping we get a break in this pattern this winter, or next summer is going to be a 2007 repeat... a lot of our landscaping died that year.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

11 minutes ago, CherokeeGA said:

It's terrible here.  We've moved the bermuda only twice since August 1, and the last time was 5 weeks ago.  It's been brown and dormant most of the summer.

The leaves have been turning for a couple of weeks, but it's not pretty.  Mostly they are just drying up and falling off.  All the plants are really distressed.  Hoping we get a break in this pattern this winter, or next summer is going to be a 2007 repeat... a lot of our landscaping died that year.

We also had an epic killer freeze in the spring of that year that killed a lot of plants.

[CherokeeGA]

31 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

We also had an epic killer freeze in the spring of that year that killed a lot of plants.

Yeh.  I didn't lose anything to that freeze though.  About half the bushes in our beds died for lack of water late that summer, during the most restrictive period of watering restrictions we basically had to watch them die.

[NWNC2015]

3 month outlook from the CPC is DRY for everyone in the S/E. They show drought development likely going around/north of Raleigh for a good chunk of Virginia. That area will see it worst before/if it sneaks in for the Charlotte to Sanford area in the long term. So places like Boone, Winston Salem, and Asheville are really going to get worse further west this Winter.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

24 minutes ago, NWNC2015 said:

3 month outlook from the CPC is DRY for everyone in the S/E. They show drought development likely going around/north of Raleigh for a good chunk of Virginia. That area will see it worst before/if it sneaks in for the Charlotte to Sanford area in the long term. So places like Boone, Winston Salem, and Asheville are really going to get worse further west this Winter.

I always thought it was hard for droughts to get much worse during the winter months when the temps are cold and the sun angle is so low. 

[NWNC2015]

2 hours ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

I always thought it was hard for droughts to get much worse during the winter months when the temps are cold and the sun angle is so low. 

Well we know for a fact temps won't be cold all winter and water table lives matter. Also don't forget about the Christmas trees, NC is number #2 in the nation.

[jshetley]

The LaNina watch is back on too and if that happens next summer could really be hot and dry. We are probably going to end up just as bad, or even worse, than things are in California now if we do get a LaNina. It's very possible that we stay well below normal on precip right into 2018 with major consequences such as many areas running out of water and even major rivers drying up.

[wncsnow]

1 hour ago, jshetley said:

The LaNina watch is back on too and if that happens next summer could really be hot and dry. We are probably going to end up just as bad, or even worse, than things are in California now if we do get a LaNina. It's very possible that we stay well below normal on precip right into 2018 with major consequences such as many areas running out of water and even major rivers drying up.

 

LOLOLOL comparing our situation to California is like comparing apples to oranges the climates are vastly different.. Major rivers drying up in the SE? That hasn't happened in recorded history 

[Met1985]

5 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

 

LOLOLOL comparing our situation to California is like comparing apples to oranges the climates are vastly different.. Major rivers drying up in the SE? That hasn't happened in recorded history 

The thing that kills me is they are preaching La nina is going to kill us but this all started last year with an El Nino.  It's a wonder we even get any rain at all out of any pattern.  The LA nina if it evolves will only be weak but who really knows what it's going to do.

[griteater]

41 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

The thing that kills me is they are preaching La nina is going to kill us but this all started last year with an El Nino.  It's a wonder we even get any rain at all out of any pattern.  The LA nina if it evolves will only be weak but who really knows what it's going to do.

Dec 2015: Very Wet

Jan 2016: Slightly Dry

Feb 2016: Slightly Wet

Mar-Sep 2016: Very Dry

 

 

 

 

[Met1985]

1 hour ago, griteater said:

Dec 2015: Very Wet

Jan 2016: Slightly Dry

Feb 2016: Slightly Wet

Mar-Sep 2016: Very Dry

 

 

 

 

Thanks Griteater! 

[GoAPPS]

Just upgraded my area to an extreme drought.

[NWNC2015]

Fire weather... as of 400 am EDT Sunday...

Little or no rain has fallen across the northwest North Carolina Piedmont in the last 14 days. Conditions are becoming increasingly dry for western North Carolina, just east of the Blue Ridge. Drying conditions will continue for this region again today, and for much of the upcoming work week. Passage of a dry front early Monday may pose control problems for fire Lee of the Blue Ridge, and especially for areas which have not seen rainfall. Greatest concern would be from Mount Airy, North Carolina, and areas to the southwest, including Pilot Mountain. Wind gusts of 15 to 25 mph are possible Monday, coupled with humidity minimums near 30 percent.

 

[jshetley]

9 hours ago, NWNC2015 said:

Fire weather... as of 400 am EDT Sunday...

Little or no rain has fallen across the northwest North Carolina Piedmont in the last 14 days. Conditions are becoming increasingly dry for western North Carolina, just east of the Blue Ridge. Drying conditions will continue for this region again today, and for much of the upcoming work week. Passage of a dry front early Monday may pose control problems for fire Lee of the Blue Ridge, and especially for areas which have not seen rainfall. Greatest concern would be from Mount Airy, North Carolina, and areas to the southwest, including Pilot Mountain. Wind gusts of 15 to 25 mph are possible Monday, coupled with humidity minimums near 30 percent.

 

There's going to be a LOT more of this over the next few months. A much bigger danger once the leaves are down too.

[curdog]

I've been lurking and learning here for a while ,so making my first post . ..

Our weather conditions are starting to give us higher fire control issues , kbdi's are running over 500 in many parts from hickory west and the 100 and 1000 hour fuels are starting to drop to critical thresholds . . once the leaves come down and get the sunlight on the forest floor it's going to get busy throughout western nc ,sc and the central southeast .I had a fire last Wednesday in hardwood litter and the high kbdi's are allowing the litter layer to hold heat still . These fires holding heat for days on end will run firefighters to death with leaf drop. Containment lines will have to be cleared daily and reburn on contained fires will continue as fresh leaves hit the ground . Having to continue to check previous fires doesn't leave much time for new starts .

If this dry weather pattern continues there will be large fires due to high burning indexes that  will prohibit firefighters from working closely to the flame front , the intensity will require firefighters to back off and go to the next Ridge, or road . Even fires right now that are burning in last year's compacted leaves are showing 2-3 foot flames , which is right on the edge of being successful with working directly on the flame edge with hand tools , once leaves hit the ground , it will either require a bulldozer or backing out farther , add any slope and wind it will multiply rates of spread and flame length . 

[NWNC2015]

New three month outlook from the CPC is dry through January now...not just December. Much wetter back towards Montana, Great Lakes and Alaska. Gulf of Mexico regions are >50% for below normal precip. 

Seasonal outlook has drought development for Florida, southern Georgia, New Orleans, and Texas. Drought persists for western NC/SC/GA.

[NWNC2015]

200 Acre Wildfire Burning Near Sylva In Southwestern North Carolina

FRANKLIN, NC, October 24, 2016 – The Dick’s Creek Fire burning on the Nantahala National Forest and private land near Sylva, NC, is estimated at 200-250 acres.

The fire is located to the southeast of Dick’s Creek Road. Firefighters are building hand and dozer lines and a helicopter is dropping water. Firefighters are also working to clear brush and leaves away from homes and other structures along Dick’s Creek.

Drivers on US 74 will encounter smoke near Sylva. Smoke is expected to settle in to the valley near Sylva tonight.
The fire was discovered on Sunday morning; the cause is under investigation. Crews on scene are from the U.S. Forest Service, North Carolina Forest Service, Emergency Management from Jackson County, and Bureau of Land Management Lakeview, Oregon.

[jshetley]

http://wspa.com/2016/10/24/upstate-sc-drought-to-be-upgraded-wednesday/

Things getting worse with no end in sight.

[Isopycnic]

21 minutes ago, NWNC2015 said:

200 Acre Wildfire Burning Near Sylva In Southwestern North Carolina

FRANKLIN, NC, October 24, 2016 – The Dick’s Creek Fire burning on the Nantahala National Forest and private land near Sylva, NC, is estimated at 200-250 acres.

The fire is located to the southeast of Dick’s Creek Road. Firefighters are building hand and dozer lines and a helicopter is dropping water. Firefighters are also working to clear brush and leaves away from homes and other structures along Dick’s Creek.

Drivers on US 74 will encounter smoke near Sylva. Smoke is expected to settle in to the valley near Sylva tonight.
The fire was discovered on Sunday morning; the cause is under investigation. Crews on scene are from the U.S. Forest Service, North Carolina Forest Service, Emergency Management from Jackson County, and Bureau of Land Management Lakeview, Oregon.

That sucks *^%#

[NWNC2015]

Brad Panovich Meteorologist

Wildfire burning up near the Linville Gorge tonight. #ncwx

[NWNC2015]

Parkway looking toward Charlotte

[LithiaWx]

18 minutes ago, NWNC2015 said:

Parkway looking toward Charlotte

Isn't that the scene form terminator 2?

[Met1985]

23 hours ago, NWNC2015 said:

200 Acre Wildfire Burning Near Sylva In Southwestern North Carolina

FRANKLIN, NC, October 24, 2016 – The Dick’s Creek Fire burning on the Nantahala National Forest and private land near Sylva, NC, is estimated at 200-250 acres.

The fire is located to the southeast of Dick’s Creek Road. Firefighters are building hand and dozer lines and a helicopter is dropping water. Firefighters are also working to clear brush and leaves away from homes and other structures along Dick’s Creek.

Drivers on US 74 will encounter smoke near Sylva. Smoke is expected to settle in to the valley near Sylva tonight.
The fire was discovered on Sunday morning; the cause is under investigation. Crews on scene are from the U.S. Forest Service, North Carolina Forest Service, Emergency Management from Jackson County, and Bureau of Land Management Lakeview, Oregon.

This fire has spread and pretty much doubled.  It is now at least a 400 acre fire. We desperately need some rain. The fire continuesto grow and is getting closer to homes also.

[NWNC2015]

dry dry dry models have dried up through hour 384. 

[J.C.]

The future has arrived.

[LithiaWx]

Well, you guys and gals in NC and SC get ready.  The Exceptional drought is expanding your way.  It has been the worst here in at least the last ten years it seems.  Creeks and streams are drying up.  Reservoirs are running low.  It's turning into the dust bowl out west here in west central GA.  Someone laughed at us not getting as bad as Cali.  All I can say is come out this way and up towards the NW GA corner then reassess your statement.  The drought here is horrendous.  No other way to sugar coat it.  New maps release tomorrow for the drought monitor.  The drought will expand. I'm 100% sure of that.

[whamby]

Looking at CHA's NOWData, there really isn't a drought that compares to this year's, not 2007, not even 1904, which had CHA's lowest annual rainfall at 32.68. This year could easily have the lowest yearly rainfall total since records were kept (1879). It's at 24.97 through Oct. Going to need Nov or Dec to be way above avg to not hit that record. 

[Cold Rain]

4 hours ago, LithiaWx said:

Well, you guys and gals in NC and SC get ready.  The Exceptional drought is expanding your way.  It has been the worst here in at least the last ten years it seems.  Creeks and streams are drying up.  Reservoirs are running low.  It's turning into the dust bowl out west here in west central GA.  Someone laughed at us not getting as bad as Cali.  All I can say is come out this way and up towards the NW GA corner then reassess your statement.  The drought here is horrendous.  No other way to sugar coat it.  New maps release tomorrow for the drought monitor.  The drought will expand. I'm 100% sure of that.

Okay!