Oct 22/23rd Sat /Sun heavy rain, high wind, elevation upslope snow. All of New England

[klw]

This is the 18Z 4KM Nam and I approve its message:

[Damage In Tolland]

30 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why should we use the Euro when it's performed awful on  this thing?

Congrats ENE on the rain and many on the winds!

[HoarfrostHubb]

I think I see a few flakes out of this

As itvis our towns Haunted Hayride scheduled for Sat night has been cancelled

[powderfreak]

26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why should we use the Euro when it's performed awful on  this thing?

It has?  I didn't realize the storm has already happened.

Its almost as if you make up your mind 5 days out and then run with the model that fits that vision, even if using a different model every 6 hours.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It has?  I didn't realize the storm has already happened.

Its almost as if you make up your mind 5 days out and then run with the model that fits that vision, even if using a different model every 6 hours.

 

There was a time back in like '07-'08 or '08-'09 winters when he deferred to mets and other experts...those days seem like a long long time ago....lol. Now it's just scour twitter or any other piece of social media that remotely fits the preconceived idea and use it as proof that your idea is verifying or is going to verify. It's the absolute perfect example of confirmation bias....probably not a good thing in the sciences.

[CoastalWx]

It does have potential to overachieve in snow if the upslope and deformation signal really line up for a few hrs. That's how you get one of those narrow bands that can drop unexpected SHSN really far to the south. Sometimes those def zones can outstand the downslope off the berks and bring flakes to ORH hills. 

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, klw said:

This is the 18Z 4KM Nam and I approve its message:

drilling down there are a lot of foot plus areas on that map. but oh Nammy

[Ginx snewx]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Congrats ENE on the rain and many on the winds!

Look out the window and then radar, enjoy

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

It does have potential to overachieve in snow if the upslope and deformation signal really line up for a few hrs. That's how you get one of those narrow bands that can drop unexpected SHSN really far to the south. Sometimes those def zones can outstand the downslope off the berks and bring flakes to ORH hills. 

The mid-level signature looks nice...when that teams up with upslope you can get some fun stuff for a few hours...I could def see even the west slope of Berkshires getting a surprise 3-6" as long as it is cold enough in that lowest 2000 feet.

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Look out the window and then radar, enjoy

At the heavy rain sliding to my east? It does look like it's pouring out to the east

[Damage In Tolland]

15 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It has?  I didn't realize the storm has already happened.

Its almost as if you make up your mind 5 days out and then run with the model that fits that vision, even if using a different model every 6 hours.

Sounds just like you all of last winter. It's as if you are the pot calling the kettle black

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

At the heavy rain sliding to my east? It does look like it's pouring out to the east

yep and that sure as hell doesn't match up with the map you posted or your beloved GFS. The axis of heaviest rain in these situations is absurdely difficult for modeling to pick up. You are definetly Central CT and very close to death valley

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

yep and that sure as hell doesn't match up with the map you posted or your beloved GFS. The axis of heaviest rain in these situations is absurdely difficult for modeling to pick up. 

Another 1-2" for your area. You have the rain magnet for sure

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Another 1-2" for your area. You have the rain magnet for sure

the plume is actually west of me, IJD jack although that stuff in LI looks like it wants to pivot up your way

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

the plume is actually west of me, IJD jack although that stuff in LI looks like it wants to pivot up your way

It's possible..though it seems that stuff east of here is robbing moisture to west

[Ginx snewx]

Cool pic

[powderfreak]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Sounds just like you all of last winter. It's as if you are the pot calling the kettle black

Fair enough, worst winter on record in at least 60 years seemed like the time to do it.

With you its whatever your latest fetish is... if you are in drought mode, find the model with no rain.  If you are in snow mode, find the snowiest one.  If you are in wind mode, find the model with the highest winds.  Heat mode, cold mode, flooding, ice, etc.  You name it and you'll toss the models that don't show it.  Its ok to admit though.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Fair enough, worst winter on record in at least 60 years seemed like the time to do it.

With you its whatever your latest fetish is... if you are in drought mode, find the model with no rain.  If you are in snow mode, find the snowiest one.  If you are in wind mode, find the model with the highest winds.  Heat mode, cold mode, flooding, ice, etc.  You name it and you'll toss the models that don't show it.  Its ok to admit though.

And generally it's the right idea 

[backedgeapproaching]

Nice steady rain the past 2 days-- 1.6" and counting

Maybe some more and then some possible flakes..nice to see some interesting weather returning.

[Ginx snewx]

FFA's flowing like Heady Topper into Kevins mouth now

[powderfreak]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

And generally it's the right idea 

I'll agree to some extend...there is something for persistence.  Sooner or later it catches up but some seasons like last winter it never does.  This summer your drought persistence has worked out well too.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Looks like heaviest rain is sliding well west of here 

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Nice steady rain the past 2 days-- 1.6" and counting

Maybe some more and then some possible flakes..nice to see some interesting weather returning.

I think your area might be sneaky snowy on the west slopes down there.  I bet you see some flakes.  Models are pretty robust with upslope straight down into the Berkshires.  Just depends on how cold it can get.  The west slope where you are might get some help from upslope cooling processes too.

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Fair enough, worst winter on record in at least 60 years seemed like the time to do it.

With you its whatever your latest fetish is... if you are in drought mode, find the model with no rain.  If you are in snow mode, find the snowiest one.  If you are in wind mode, find the model with the highest winds.  Heat mode, cold mode, flooding, ice, etc.  You name it and you'll toss the models that don't show it.  Its ok to admit though.

You hit the nail on the head perfectly!   

[ORH_wxman]

E CT up through ORH is gonna get crushed over the next couple hours. Good chunk of RI too.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

E CT up through ORH is gonna get crushed over the next couple hours. Good chunk of RI too.

Is that the bulk of the acitivity? Seems like everything is siding west of what it looked like not to long ago 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

E CT up through ORH is gonna get crushed over the next couple hours. Good chunk of RI too.

That's some efficient rain too. Gonna be some Ginxy faces raised to the sky if that keeps up.

 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Is that the bulk of the acitivity? Seems like everything is siding west of what it looked like not to long ago 

Some of the models were west too. These bands are tough to predict. There is more off to the south with some convection so it may move into your area.

[rgwp96]

I have a question about weather stations , what would cause my temp to plummet way lower than the actual temp on clear nights .  My temp and dew points were way out of wack and reading in the teens .   As soon as morning came it adjusted itself to normal temp which was about 50

[CoastalWx]

All in all hi res did nice with this when globals were too dry with this meso area of +RA. They were further west with 850 LL into SNE which is key to get the lift and heavy rain. That's why I mentioned the second max in SNE and that will extend into NH and ME as well.