Oct 22/23rd Sat /Sun heavy rain, high wind, elevation upslope snow. All of New England

[dryslot]

Time to look at some of the short term guidance, Globals are not very interested for this area as far as heavy precip goes, The Euro, Is starting to be a little concerning since its upgrade

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Time to look at some of the short term guidance, Globals are not very interested for this area as far as heavy precip goes, The Euro, Is starting to be a little concerning since its upgrade

i'd hold off on that assessment until this is over

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

850 winds IMO never supported gusts much higher than 40kts in most areas. I don't see a huge area of 50kt+ 850 winds to raise my eye brow...at least yet. 

Yea I see a bunch of CAA gusts in the 40's on the CP and 50's in the Berks/Greens/Whites. 

[dryslot]

7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

i'd hold off on that assessment until this is over

 Im not talking just this event, It looks like on most guidance we get dry slotted here,  And yes, Its still ranks higher then the others as far as outcomes, But that does not say much

[Typhoon Tip]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

850 winds IMO never supported gusts much higher than 40kts in most areas. I don't see a huge area of 50kt+ 850 winds to raise my eye brow...at least yet. 

isallobaric wind response doesn't correlate very well to 850 mb wind and momentum stuff - that's different.  

that's the key trick - knowing when you get that quiet faux calm at the core of the low, then to turbine sound coming over the horizon as the wind suddenly "pulses" for a 1/2 hour to and hour with gusts that exceed.  

this system did appeal better that way up until last night's 00z cycle.  now... if we are just talking the CAA terms?  sure - like I said, it appears to just be seasonally gusty. 

course, the previous dynamic could come back still ... just sayn', as is -

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, dryslot said:

 Im not talking just this event, And yes, Its still ranks higher then the others as far as outcomes, But that does not say much

The high qpf placement has varied from SWCT to the Cape down here on the Euro with the Maine coast getting smacked. I think that the RGEM starting this afternoon is a better bet, but looking at upper air evolution there really hasn't been much disagreement. This however is still evolving, anytime you shoot a plume 1000 miles in 24 hrs models are going to vary by that 100 miles on high qpf areas.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

isallobaric wind response doesn't correlate very well to 850 mb wind and momentum stuff - that's different.  

that's the key trick - knowing when you get that quite to turbine sound coming over the horizon and the wind "pulses" for a 1/2 hour to and hour with gusts that exceed.  

this system did appeal better that way up until last night's 00z cycle.  now... if we are just talking the CAA terms?  sure - like I said, it appears to just be seasonally gusty. 

course, the previous dynamic could come back still ... just sayn', as is -

I know what you mean..but even the lower levels didn't quite catch my eye. However to your point...the wind issue may be worse off to the SW near NYC and NJ. By the time the good LLJ moves up here, the low is always matured. So your isallobaric response my be off to the southwest. 

[CoastalWx]

HRRR has shifted a bit east, but the idea that it and the RGEM have had is very consistent.

[qg_omega]

Getting crushed in the NYC area, .65 here in 15 minutes, tropical like rain

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I know what you mean..but even the lower levels didn't quite catch my eye. However to your point...the wind issue may be worse off to the SW near NYC and NJ. By the time the good LLJ moves up here, the low is always matured. So your isallobaric response my be off to the southwest. 

not sure i follow - 

isallobaric wind doesn't have anything to do with LLJ/mxing mechanics.. 

it's strictly a mass-restoring response to intense perturbations - - this system has some ear-marks in earlier model runs of doing so, not so much. 

 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Getting crushed in the NYC area, .65 here in 15 minutes, tropical like rain

yeah these narrow bands are on guidfance...just a matter of where. That area well SE of Block island needs to be watched. Very efficient rain processes may lead to FFW.

[qg_omega]

Raining cats and dogs for 20 min straight so far just constant pouring.  .75 on Davis now

[Ginx snewx]

10 minutes ago, dryslot said:

 Im not talking just this event, It looks like on most guidance we get dry slotted here,  And yes, Its still ranks higher then the others as far as outcomes, But that does not say much

HRRR says what dry slot, Dryslot

[OceanStWx]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

yeah these narrow bands are on guidfance...just a matter of where. That area well SE of Block island needs to be watched. Very efficient rain processes may lead to FFW.

Yeah, that's the area to watch. I'm amazed at how the Euro sort of has it at 12z this morning then loses it completely and favors developing something much farther east and running it up into Downeast. The GFS is slightly better but then loses it at the last minute and pulls a Euro around 00z tonight.

I'm all aboard the hi-res this morning.

[OceanStWx]

As for winds Sunday, the CAA doesn't even look that good anymore. We should see an isallobaric response when that bowling ball moves overhead, but behind that mid level winds are fairly parallel to isotherms. Not going to get much CAA out of that.

[dryslot]

9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

HRRR says what dry slot, Dryslot

lol, I wish i had all the precip the HRRR has shown me getting the last 2 yrs or so, There would not be folks around here wells going dry

 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

Yeah, that's the area to watch. I'm amazed at how the Euro sort of has it at 12z this morning then loses it completely and favors developing something much farther east and running it up into Downeast. The GFS is slightly better but then loses it at the last minute and pulls a Euro around 00z tonight.

I'm all aboard the hi-res this morning.

We nowcast and toss the models, this is a big blob of Heavy stuff

[OceanStWx]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

We nowcast and toss the models, this is a big blob of Heavy stuff

Yeah, loop it. It's not on a track to whiff New England.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

As for winds Sunday, the CAA doesn't even look that good anymore. We should see an isallobaric response when that bowling ball moves overhead, but behind that mid level winds are fairly parallel to isotherms. Not going to get much CAA out of that.

second  Cold frontal passage looks more impressive as far as winds go to me.

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

As for winds Sunday, the CAA doesn't even look that good anymore. We should see an isallobaric response when that bowling ball moves overhead, but behind that mid level winds are fairly parallel to isotherms. Not going to get much CAA out of that.

yup ... nice paraphrase to what i'm miserably failing to convey    ... i was also noting that the cold is backed off - CAA terms, and thermal layout for that matter. 

 

anyway, it's interesting - i was just noting on hi res visible imagery that the line of heavier rain elements pointed at NYC presently and extending S immediately astride the Jersey coast doesn't appear to have much vertical depth to the cloud structures.  weird.  i was thinking i'd see an expanding blow-off axis

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yup ... nice paraphrase to what i'm miserably failing to convey    ... i was also noting that the cold is backed off - CAA terms, and thermal layout for that matter. 

 

anyway, it's interesting - i was just noting on hi res visible imagery that the line of heavier rain elements pointed at NYC presently and extending S immediately astride the Jersey coast doesn't appear to have much vertical depth to the cloud structures.  weird.  i was thinking i'd see an expanding blow-off axis

I'm actually surprised dual-pol is only saying "rain" instead of "heavy rain" given the ZDR is low (small drops) and Z is high. Real tropical look. I guess KDP is too low with the shallow clouds.

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

I'm actually surprised dual-pol is only saying "rain" instead of "heavy rain" given the ZDR is low (small drops) and Z is high. Real tropical look. I guess KDP is too low with the shallow clouds.

great minds!  ha - i was just thinking mid to small sized drops falling like fog in short sleeve weather. 

you know, i looks like SE CT/ RI may actually try to clear partially over the next hour or two ... while that axis continues N.  the rad has some pixel showers popping up here in interior eastern M as the bottom edge of the vis cloud shield tries to peel away N.  i wonder if there a sort of diffused warm boundary in there.  hm.

 

in any event, agreed on the deeper CB stuff moving N/NNW toward LI right now.  

[qg_omega]

Over an inch now in Westchester

[ORH_wxman]

12z NAM coming in quite a bit deeper than previously.

[Ginx snewx]

Previous experience with this organized cluster coming off the ocean tells me that urban FFW probably will be needed in drought areas, ironic. Can we see lightning yet?

[OceanStWx]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Previous experience with this organized cluster coming off the ocean tells me that urban FFW probably will be needed in drought areas, ironic. Can we see lightning yet?

Yep. Between IC and CG there have been about 100 flashes in the last 15 minutes.

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

12z NAM coming in quite a bit deeper than previously.

how's that tropical aspect being handled... that's still a wild card in all this. 

[ORH_wxman]

Something like the 12z NAM at 36...if you look at the very rapidly deepening ULL/ML center, that would be the type of thing to watch for brief heavy snow bands in like S VT and even parts of W MA. You need it to get really deep though like it is showing. It takes a more southerly track because of that...it's just kind of digging for a oil for a bit before it swings N and NE.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

how's that tropical aspect being handled... that's still a wild card in all this. 

Shuts it east while the primary takes over in Central New England, fits the 5H evolution, if the pattern was just a tad different this would have been a bomb for sure.

[Damage In Tolland]

29 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

As for winds Sunday, the CAA doesn't even look that good anymore. We should see an isallobaric response when that bowling ball moves overhead, but behind that mid level winds are fairly parallel to isotherms. Not going to get much CAA out of that.

The big winds are Saturday Pm and night.. not Sunday