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Oct 22/23rd Sat /Sun heavy rain, high wind, elevation upslope snow. All of New England

Ginx snewx

By Ginx snewx,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted

 

Post mortem,  it looks like the NAM did pretty darn well when employing/assessing what could take place given it's FRH data.  I'm not as privy to other model specifics heading into this thing, but the NAM was hammering height implosion then biasing (if not outright) several hours of QPF on the marginal-cold-frozen side ... which, then we add in terrain climo and boom. 

Wind has been entirely manageable if not pedestrian.  the average gust velocity has been ~ 48 mph on the coastal plain, and ~ 30 so far in the interior.   this per KTAN's web-site - there may be other sources that support/add/subtract from this... I am not personally aware if there is a climate assessment for wind, specifically, as it pertains to season and/or system-recurrences.  Like, 'what is the average backside gust' - i don't think i've ever heard of that..  Just from my experiences over the last three decades in SNE, this system is forgettable so far.  We'll see if the destablizatioin off of feeble late October insolation/heating can help this some... 

 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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58 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Mansnow.  Probably won't go anywhere this week.

Openings prior to TG? 

... I wonder (aslo) where this thing ranks in terms of climo for New England's mountains... I'm assuming this was/is primarily an elevation thing - my guess is earlier than normal by some.  Just a guess.  

When Googling that subject, specifically, I only seem to find that information delineated by month - like, October.  Well, duh... I want inches per date level stuff for this. 

One thing that interesting me was "Wxmanmtich"'s post re the temperature bottoming out (I'm assuming per avatar) Lenox, MA earlier in the evening, then sustaining or even rising overnight? 

That sort of hearkens to an anomalous cold plume associated with this system, proven by having it control the temperature curve more so than the diurnal normalcy.  "Weather" that is true relative to climatology or just the pattern, aside... perhaps a little of both.  Interesting. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Openings prior to TG? 

... I wonder (aslo) where this thing ranks in terms of climo for New England's mountains... I'm assuming this was/is primarily an elevation thing - my guess is earlier than normal by some.  Just a guess.  

When Googling that subject, specifically, I only seem to find that information delineated by month - like, October.  Well, duh... I want inches per date level stuff for this. 

One thing that interesting me was "Wxmanmtich"'s post re the temperature bottoming out (I'm assuming per avatar) Lenox, MA earlier in the evening, that sustaining or even rising overnight? 

That sort of hearkens to an anomalous cold plume associated with this system, proven by having it control the temperature curve more so than the diurnal normalcy.  "Weather" that is true relative to climatology or just the pattern, aside... perhaps a little of both.  Interesting. 

My temp also went up as well. I was a little surprised to see it warm by 3 degrees. Some weak lower level WAA after that main cold thrust.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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interesting...  that lends support to the idea that this system "might have" (don't throw stones at me now, folks, i'm not impugning the untouchable preciousness of snow here...) just been 'lucky' in that it had an anomalous synoptic cold plume entangled with it.  

 

 

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ono

ono

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

I wonder how Jay Peak did. This looks classic for them being westerly exposed. 

northeast exposure... but the peak to the NW of the ski area (north jay) creates a nice orographic ramp up 3400' or so that rolls over into the west bowl/base area golf course. probably does some work in NW flow. Smuggs is probably the most NW exposed (or Bolton).

 

seemed like the rain/snow line was east-west around rt 2 at midnight with strong consistently. wrap around cold into the Dacks with snow along the spine at MRG/Sugarush gave them a head start.  seems like Stowe-Jay should do alright as NNW flow seems to be filling in with upslope.  

58 minutes ago, MarkO said:

Northeast according to Google Earth, but when you look to their northwest, there's a huge vast plain all the way to Montreal. 

This helps jay a fair bit from my experience (with wind as well). Smuggs also has pretty open, flat terrain to the NW (albeit not as open as Jay).  Can make a difference in some events, though this event seems pretty good for everyone Sugarbush northward.

 

Nice start. seasonal lurking/posting is on. See snow in the foothills out toward underhill, Mansfield is shrouded from the kitchen window.

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