Oct 22/23rd Sat /Sun heavy rain, high wind, elevation upslope snow. All of New England

[Baroclinic Zone]

Raining

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Picnic table pasting on the GFS.  Leaning towards 4-8" above 3000ft.

 

 

 

 

Most guidance is giving that area about 0.75" QPF as snow (in addition to NAM/GFS, RGEM also has that amount)...so definitely the elevations have a decent shot at 6"+. I would guess even above 2k does fairly well, though obviously the timing can be kind of big...how much gets wasted on catpaws and 35F white rain vs actual accumulating snowfall.

[CoastalWx]

GFS has some spill over precip into central areas of MA and CT as the mid level RH axis moves east Saturday night.

[Typhoon Tip]

51 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

There's definitely a secondary warm front that's pushed into the region.

my sky just dramatically changed here from slate gray to broken streets and fast moving scud - i'm pretty much on top of Rt 2 in NW Middlesex Co in Massachusetts - working from home on Friday's is the way to go!!  

anyway, temps seem to be moving up nicely... 59 now 67  

[powderfreak]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Most guidance is giving that area about 0.75" QPF as snow (in addition to NAM/GFS, RGEM also has that amount)...so definitely the elevations have a decent shot at 6"+. I would guess even above 2k does fairly well, though obviously the timing can be kind of big...how much gets wasted on catpaws and 35F white rain vs actual accumulating snowfall.

Yeah that's where I'm most unsure about...the mid-slope elevations like 1500-2500ft.  Hard to tell up top even still if it'll be like 6-8" or a dense 4-5".

-3C at H85 with that deep moisture will be no problem above 3000ft.  But 925-950mb holds at like +1C for a while before sneaking to -1C towards the tail end.

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

my sky just dramatically changed here from slate gray to broken streets and fast moving scud - i'm pretty much on top of Rt 2 in NW Middlesex Co in Massachusetts - working from home on Friday's is the way to go!!  

anyway, temps seem to be moving up nicely... 59 now 67  

Tippy Bermuda Blues!

[Typhoon Tip]

pretty much...though the 'blue' aspect to ceilings appears fleeting at best.

interesting to note, BDL all the way to 78 is impressive. 

RUT, VT to 70?   wow -  ...snowing there tomorrow night... what is this, Boulder CO -

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

pretty much...though the 'blue' aspect to ceilings appears fleeting at best.

interesting to note, BDL all the way to 78 is impressive. 

RUT, VT to 70?   wow -  ...snowing there tomorrow night... what is this, Boulder CO -

 

Or us before 1997...lol.

 

Funny you mentioned that, because I was thinking the same thing...I feel like it's harder to do early in the season than late. You get that faux ground warmth late in the season with such a high sun angle even if the mid-levels aren't that warm.

 

At any rate, even though most of us won't see snow or even go below freezing in this, it will be a sharp change of seasons in 12-18 hours. From muggy warmth to crisp CAA late autumn feel.

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Or us before 1997...lol.

 

Funny you mentioned that, because I was thinking the same thing...I feel like it's harder to do early in the season than late. You get that faux ground warmth late in the season with such a high sun angle even if the mid-levels aren't that warm.

 

At any rate, even though most of us won't see snow or even go below freezing in this, it will be a sharp change of seasons in 12-18 hours. From muggy warmth to crisp CAA late autumn feel.

18 hole scramble FTL on Sunday.

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

pretty much...though the 'blue' aspect to ceilings appears fleeting at best.

interesting to note, BDL all the way to 78 is impressive. 

RUT, VT to 70?   wow -  ...snowing there tomorrow night... what is this, Boulder CO -

Right!!!  

 

Ya 75 here...warm and muggy..just started raining again-sun was out for a quick bit earlier.

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Or us before 1997...lol.

 

Funny you mentioned that, because I was thinking the same thing...I feel like it's harder to do early in the season than late. You get that faux ground warmth late in the season with such a high sun angle even if the mid-levels aren't that warm.

 

At any rate, even though most of us won't see snow or even go below freezing in this, it will be a sharp change of seasons in 12-18 hours. From muggy warmth to crisp CAA late autumn feel.

Out of seasons turning into seasons 

[powderfreak]

The more I look at this, although I'm usually cautious, if there was an event where the models under-estimate the orographic response it's this one.  The mid-level lows are in the climo favored spots, there's plenty of low level moisture (more so than a lot of NW flow chances), and it's a deep layer WNW flow up to like 15,000ft. 

A photo from last week flying over the ridge.  WNW is the direction the plane is flying, with nothing but flat ground for like a hundred miles in that direction.  This event will have a lot of moisture to push over the Spine.  I'm almost more inclined to go with the robust 4km NAM and local WRF precip amounts.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

41 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Or us before 1997...lol.

 

Funny you mentioned that, because I was thinking the same thing...I feel like it's harder to do early in the season than late. You get that faux ground warmth late in the season with such a high sun angle even if the mid-levels aren't that warm.

 

At any rate, even though most of us won't see snow or even go below freezing in this, it will be a sharp change of seasons in 12-18 hours. From muggy warmth to crisp CAA late autumn feel.

 

right -... i know i've languished over 1997 a million times in the past, but yeah - 

one of my fondest memories of that era of my worthless life was that Saturday before the event.  

grabbed a coffee and headed for the police station to grab and sign-out the keys to the Weather Lab.  i had memories of Harvey Leonard in mind; a couple nights before i was watching his broadcast on a muted TV and read lips, "...Should this ever pass UNDER our latitude," while he waved his hand in a parabolic gesture in a arc like a tire swing up under LI. 

i knew exactly what his thoughts were, because i shared them, ...when around that time the models had a closed hornet sting about 200 naut mi ENE of SNE's coast.  apparently there was also discussion at NWS about error being smeared west?   ...hm.  that's my memory of.

set coffee down, turn on PC, ... open up models, what do i see:  hornet sting closed and passing UNDER our latitude.

i think my heart even accelerated for a few moments when i saw that - it might have even moved. heh.

so an hour later i was walking across the bridge at University Ave to hit brunch in FOX Hall... it was about 11:45 am and the sky was sparsely dappled with high-ish based fair-weather CU. but they were moving s.  but nothing about those sensible moments as i walked across the expanse lent even remotely to what that same seen would look like just 36 hours later. 

talk about gossamer warmth!  holy schit!   it was 63, light winds... and April 1 meant college women poured out of dorms to sun-bathe in the early season spoil.  i remember specifically thinking how no one had any idea what they were in for.  

so yeah - i hear you on the early season admonished heat thing.   it seems in early December, it's all about intensity of dynamics.  like, in April, ...you can punch cold down with half the momentum you need in a December bomb - which needs comparatively more to overcome latency in the atmosphere.  

it's why 1992 is THAT much more astounding...  don't get me started on that summnubeyotch

[OceanStWx]

Marine fog has slipped back into Midcoast ME. The islands around Acadia are displacing the fog (100 ft ceilings) so you can see peaks like Cadillac. Even Matinicus created a wake and there isn't much elevation there.

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Marine fog has slipped back into Midcoast ME. The islands around Acadia are displacing the fog (100 ft ceilings) so you can see peaks like Cadillac. Even Matinicus created a wake and there isn't much elevation there.

wow  that's pretty slick - yeah can tell.  

[Damage In Tolland]

 

[Ginx snewx]

31 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The more I look at this, although I'm usually cautious, if there was an event where the models under-estimate the orographic response it's this one.  The mid-level lows are in the climo favored spots, there's plenty of low level moisture (more so than a lot of NW flow chances), and it's a deep layer WNW flow up to like 15,000ft. 

A photo from last week flying over the ridge.  WNW is the direction the plane is flying, with nothing but flat ground for like a hundred miles in that direction.  This event will have a lot of moisture to push over the Spine.  I'm almost more inclined to go with the robust 4km NAM and local WRF precip amounts.

 

wow 4km crushed

[Typhoon Tip]

continuing along the less impactful wind scenario down here in SNE (save perhaps elevations) ... the 12z oper. Euro continues along the theme of winter for NW NE.

[Damage In Tolland]

18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

continuing along the less impactful wind scenario down here in SNE (save perhaps elevations) ... the 12z oper. Euro continues along the theme of winter for NW NE.

Everything is printing out 40+ gusts region wide..with elevations and coasts 50+

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Everything is printing out 40+ gusts region wide..with elevations and coasts 50+

no ... talking about the isallobaric wind acceleration stuff.. 

CAA is what it is...  but others have noted that even it has backed off as of 00z run - and so this 12z shows consistency in that regard.  

 

[dryslot]

2 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

18 hole scramble FTL on Sunday.

2 club wind either side

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

no ... talking about the isallobaric wind acceleration stuff.. 

CAA is what it is...  but others have noted that even it has backed off as of 00z run - and so this 12z shows consistency in that regard.  

 

Fish says yes

Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher  25m25 minutes ago

Wind gusts 35-50mph should be sufficient to knock down some trees, given the #drought. So with that, some power outages Sat eve/Sunday.

0 replies0 retweets3 likes

 

 

[powderfreak]

I always thought it was wet soggy ground that would knock trees down, not the drought? 

[Ginx snewx]

we pour at work, .23 in 15 mins

[Ginx snewx]

strongest winds on the Euro are SUNDAY night not Sat Kev and they are 30's and 40's except near 50 at 1500"

[powderfreak]

Another good short term AFD on the snow potential out of BTV's CWA:

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 312 PM EDT Friday...Extremely challenging and complex forecast
associated with low level thermal profiles and associated snow
levels. GFS/NAM/ECMWF and GEM are all in excellent with evolution
of negatively tilted and closing off 7h/5h circulation across
eastern NY by 21z Saturday and coastal low pressure being captured
and becoming vertically stacked over southern Canada by 06z
Sunday. This synoptic scale pattern will support a 12 to 18 hour
period of favorable deformation and upslope focused precip on
Saturday Night into midday Sunday.

The difficult question to answer is how cold are the thermal
profiles...and associated snow levels. NAM is much colder and faster
bring in the colder air...on brisk northwest winds...while GFS/ECMWF
are slower and much warmer in the boundary layer to 925mb layer.
This makes for a huge difference on impacts associated with snow
levels between 1200 and 1500 feet as supported by the NAM or 2000
feet or higher with limited impacts per the GFS/ECMWF solutions.
Interesting to note NAM BUFKIT data showing 1.20" qpf falling as
all snow...while GFS BUFKIT shows only 0.32". Given the lack of cold
air upstream and very warm ground temps from recent
warmth...thinking snow will initially have difficulties
accumulating...in the mountains towns on Saturday evening.

Have noted progged 850mb temp near 0C from KMSS to KBTV to KVSF at
00Z...while the 925mb 0C isotherm is still back northwest of our cwa
thru 06z Sunday...supporting snow levels above 2000 feet. Thinking
during heavier precip rates...especially on Saturday Night...column
will cool enough to support some wet accumulating snow in the
mountains towns of the Dacks and portions of the green mountains in
VT...mainly above 1500 feet. Have in the grids a dusting to several
inches of wet snow for Lake Placid...Tri Lakes Area...Newcomb...and
across the higher terrain of central Clinton and Franklin Counties.
Given the complex thermal profiles expecting a sharp snow gradient
as you climb in elevation with 8 inches or more possible above 4000
feet across the northern Dacks.

For the Green Mountains in Vt the colder air arrives first in the
central/southern portion...then advects north as closed cyclonic
circulations moves northeast. Thinking a similar type scenario plays
out with a dusting to several inches of wet snow likely between 1500
and 2000 feet...for towns like Killington...Bread
Loaf...Walden...Belvidere...and base area of local ski resorts.
Also...expecting a sharp snowfall gradient based on elevation with
Mansfield to Jay Peak having the potential of 6 or more inches by
Midday Sunday. A few wet snowflakes could mix in at times in the
valleys late Saturday Night...but no accumulation is expected.

Upslope parameters look very favorable with northwest 925mb to 850mb
winds of 35 to 45 knots...strong uvv`s signature across the
northern Dacks and western slopes...and plenty of 850 to 700mb
backside moisture. Thinking additional qpf values will range from
0.05 to 0.15 Saint Lawrence and Lower CT River Valley with near 0.50
eastern CPV/parts of the Northeast...and up to 1.0 northern Dacks
and parts of the central/northern Green Mountains from Mansfield to
Jay Peak.

Next concern will be developing winds associated with tightening
pressure gradient with 979mb low pres. Soundings show strong low
level wind fields of 40 to 50 knots...with bottom of the mixed layer
winds around 35 to 40 knots Sat Night into Sunday. Still some
questions how much mixing occurs with precip and clouds...but
thinking as drier air develops on Sunday...surface wind gusts
between 35 and 45 mph will be possible...with even higher gusts on
exposed mountain summits. For people adventuring out to experience
the first snow of the season in the mountains...please be prepared
for mid winter conditions on Sunday...especially near the summits.

Temps will range from the mid/upper 20s mountains to upper 30s/lower
40s warmer valley locations near Lake Champlain on Saturday night
and only warm 3 to 5 degrees on Sunday with brisk northwest winds.

[Ginx snewx]

How is Kevin getting Twitter?

[Damage In Tolland]

14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

strongest winds on the Euro are SUNDAY night not Sat Kev and they are 30's and 40's except near 50 at 1500"

Why should we use the Euro when it's performed awful on  this thing?

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why should we use the Euro when it's performed awful on  this thing?

It is? up to .3 rain

[Ginx snewx]

You are g

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why should we use the Euro when it's performed awful on  this thing?

crushing rain heading your way Mr GFS