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Oct 22/23rd Sat /Sun heavy rain, high wind, elevation upslope snow. All of New England

Ginx snewx

By Ginx snewx,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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  On 10/21/2016 at 1:29 PM, CoastalWx said:

850 winds IMO never supported gusts much higher than 40kts in most areas. I don't see a huge area of 50kt+ 850 winds to raise my eye brow...at least yet. 

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isallobaric wind response doesn't correlate very well to 850 mb wind and momentum stuff - that's different.  

that's the key trick - knowing when you get that quiet faux calm at the core of the low, then to turbine sound coming over the horizon as the wind suddenly "pulses" for a 1/2 hour to and hour with gusts that exceed.  

this system did appeal better that way up until last night's 00z cycle.  now... if we are just talking the CAA terms?  sure - like I said, it appears to just be seasonally gusty. 

course, the previous dynamic could come back still ... just sayn', as is -

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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  On 10/21/2016 at 1:36 PM, dryslot said:

 Im not talking just this event, And yes, Its still ranks higher then the others as far as outcomes, But that does not say much

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The high qpf placement has varied from SWCT to the Cape down here on the Euro with the Maine coast getting smacked. I think that the RGEM starting this afternoon is a better bet, but looking at upper air evolution there really hasn't been much disagreement. This however is still evolving, anytime you shoot a plume 1000 miles in 24 hrs models are going to vary by that 100 miles on high qpf areas.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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  On 10/21/2016 at 1:40 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

isallobaric wind response doesn't correlate very well to 850 mb wind and momentum stuff - that's different.  

that's the key trick - knowing when you get that quite to turbine sound coming over the horizon and the wind "pulses" for a 1/2 hour to and hour with gusts that exceed.  

this system did appeal better that way up until last night's 00z cycle.  now... if we are just talking the CAA terms?  sure - like I said, it appears to just be seasonally gusty. 

course, the previous dynamic could come back still ... just sayn', as is -

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I know what you mean..but even the lower levels didn't quite catch my eye. However to your point...the wind issue may be worse off to the SW near NYC and NJ. By the time the good LLJ moves up here, the low is always matured. So your isallobaric response my be off to the southwest. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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  On 10/21/2016 at 1:41 PM, CoastalWx said:

I know what you mean..but even the lower levels didn't quite catch my eye. However to your point...the wind issue may be worse off to the SW near NYC and NJ. By the time the good LLJ moves up here, the low is always matured. So your isallobaric response my be off to the southwest. 

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not sure i follow - 

isallobaric wind doesn't have anything to do with LLJ/mxing mechanics.. 

it's strictly a mass-restoring response to intense perturbations - - this system has some ear-marks in earlier model runs of doing so, not so much. 

 

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

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  On 10/21/2016 at 1:48 PM, CoastalWx said:

yeah these narrow bands are on guidfance...just a matter of where. That area well SE of Block island needs to be watched. Very efficient rain processes may lead to FFW.

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Yeah, that's the area to watch. I'm amazed at how the Euro sort of has it at 12z this morning then loses it completely and favors developing something much farther east and running it up into Downeast. The GFS is slightly better but then loses it at the last minute and pulls a Euro around 00z tonight.

I'm all aboard the hi-res this morning.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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  On 10/21/2016 at 1:53 PM, OceanStWx said:

Yeah, that's the area to watch. I'm amazed at how the Euro sort of has it at 12z this morning then loses it completely and favors developing something much farther east and running it up into Downeast. The GFS is slightly better but then loses it at the last minute and pulls a Euro around 00z tonight.

I'm all aboard the hi-res this morning.

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We nowcast and toss the models, this is a big blob of Heavy stuff

GOES133020162955iuFhJ.jpg

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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  On 10/21/2016 at 1:54 PM, OceanStWx said:

As for winds Sunday, the CAA doesn't even look that good anymore. We should see an isallobaric response when that bowling ball moves overhead, but behind that mid level winds are fairly parallel to isotherms. Not going to get much CAA out of that.

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second  Cold frontal passage looks more impressive as far as winds go to me.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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  On 10/21/2016 at 1:54 PM, OceanStWx said:

As for winds Sunday, the CAA doesn't even look that good anymore. We should see an isallobaric response when that bowling ball moves overhead, but behind that mid level winds are fairly parallel to isotherms. Not going to get much CAA out of that.

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yup ... nice paraphrase to what i'm miserably failing to convey :blink:   ... i was also noting that the cold is backed off - CAA terms, and thermal layout for that matter. 

 

anyway, it's interesting - i was just noting on hi res visible imagery that the line of heavier rain elements pointed at NYC presently and extending S immediately astride the Jersey coast doesn't appear to have much vertical depth to the cloud structures.  weird.  i was thinking i'd see an expanding blow-off axis

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
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  On 10/21/2016 at 1:57 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

yup ... nice paraphrase to what i'm miserably failing to convey :blink:   ... i was also noting that the cold is backed off - CAA terms, and thermal layout for that matter. 

 

anyway, it's interesting - i was just noting on hi res visible imagery that the line of heavier rain elements pointed at NYC presently and extending S immediately astride the Jersey coast doesn't appear to have much vertical depth to the cloud structures.  weird.  i was thinking i'd see an expanding blow-off axis

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I'm actually surprised dual-pol is only saying "rain" instead of "heavy rain" given the ZDR is low (small drops) and Z is high. Real tropical look. I guess KDP is too low with the shallow clouds.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
  On 10/21/2016 at 2:01 PM, OceanStWx said:

I'm actually surprised dual-pol is only saying "rain" instead of "heavy rain" given the ZDR is low (small drops) and Z is high. Real tropical look. I guess KDP is too low with the shallow clouds.

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great minds!  ha - i was just thinking mid to small sized drops falling like fog in short sleeve weather. 

you know, i looks like SE CT/ RI may actually try to clear partially over the next hour or two ... while that axis continues N.  the rad has some pixel showers popping up here in interior eastern M as the bottom edge of the vis cloud shield tries to peel away N.  i wonder if there a sort of diffused warm boundary in there.  hm.

 

in any event, agreed on the deeper CB stuff moving N/NNW toward LI right now.  

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Something like the 12z NAM at 36...if you look at the very rapidly deepening ULL/ML center, that would be the type of thing to watch for brief heavy snow bands in like S VT and even parts of W MA. You need it to get really deep though like it is showing. It takes a more southerly track because of that...it's just kind of digging for a oil for a bit before it swings N and NE.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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  On 10/21/2016 at 1:54 PM, OceanStWx said:

As for winds Sunday, the CAA doesn't even look that good anymore. We should see an isallobaric response when that bowling ball moves overhead, but behind that mid level winds are fairly parallel to isotherms. Not going to get much CAA out of that.

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The big winds are Saturday Pm and night.. not Sunday

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