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Oct 22/23rd Sat /Sun heavy rain, high wind, elevation upslope snow. All of New England

Ginx snewx

By Ginx snewx,
in New England

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
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Models depict a high impact heavy rain wind storm for especially the western 2/3rds of New England as a Miller B redevelops inland over Maine at 983 mb. Rain totals exceeeding 3 inches  could occur from SW CT up through NVT. High winds with gusts in the 40's  are expected with potentially a significant early upslope snow as far south as the Mass Berks where a couple of inches could fall to NVT, NNH where upwards to 6 inches may occur. Its a gullywhomper for some with the best action in the western 2/3rds of NE

Untitled.png

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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  On 10/19/2016 at 12:34 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Take the way under on the rain in SNE. Most of the rain will fall west as usual..and if the tropical low gets involved far ENE up into Maine will be the other rain winner. Friday SNE is warm sectored with dews well into the 60's. 

Should be a wild weekend at Jay Peak though for snow

 

CvIPOXJWAAUCwhn.jpg 

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taking the NAM over the Euro at plus 72 hrs? Whats the CMC?/ JMA show?

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klw

klw

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Posted
  On 10/19/2016 at 12:17 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Models depict a high impact heavy rain wind storm for especially the western 2/3rds of New England as a Miller B redevelops inland over Maine at 983 mb. Rain totals exceeeding 3 inches  could occur from SW CT up through NVT. High winds with gusts in the 40's  are expected with potentially a significant early upslope snow as far south as the Mass Berks where a couple of inches could fall to NVT, NNH where upwards to 6 inches may occur. Its a gullywhomper for some with the best action in the western 2/3rds of NE

Untitled.png

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Which model is the image from?

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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Posted
  On 10/19/2016 at 12:34 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Take the way under on the rain in SNE. Most of the rain will fall west as usual..and if the tropical low gets involved far ENE up into Maine will be the other rain winner. Friday SNE is warm sectored with dews well into the 60's. 

Should be a wild weekend at Jay Peak though for snow

 

CvIPOXJWAAUCwhn.jpg 

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You still sticking with the NAM or is it tossed?

nam_total_precip_ne_29.png

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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  On 10/19/2016 at 2:59 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

I think that heavy stuff it's now got over CT ends up over EnE. In other words.. shift everything east in all 3 zones there. Most of CT gets under .50.. and some .25

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You do seem like you are going out of your way to say no rain regardless of what any given model shows.  

Hopefully you get drenched.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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  On 10/19/2016 at 3:06 PM, powderfreak said:

You do seem like you are going out of your way to say no rain regardless of what any given model shows.  

Hopefully you get drenched.

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Not at all.  This has looked like 2 jacks for days. NY state to you and Ene to Maine.  In between you get the 700mb dryslot

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Spanks45

Spanks45

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  On 10/19/2016 at 3:06 PM, powderfreak said:

You do seem like you are going out of your way to say no rain regardless of what any given model shows.  

Hopefully you get drenched.

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The sad part is, I feel myself feeling the same way... My area seems to find any reason to not rain, when everyone else around gets drenched. So, I am also expecting that batch of heavy rain to either not occur or shift to the east. I just hope it all changes this winter....

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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  On 10/19/2016 at 3:12 PM, Spanks45 said:

The sad part is, I feel myself feeling the same way... My area seems to find any reason to not rain, when everyone else around gets drenched. So, I am also expecting that batch of heavy rain to either not occur or shift to the east. I just hope it all changes this winter....

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I get it.  I was in that mode last winter.  The real snows never came (like 4" or more).  After a while in a given pattern it does become pessimistic or optimistic depending on what's been happening repeatedly.  

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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curious how that compares to climatology for > 2,500 feet  ...4,000 etc..

also, as the blend of current oper.'s presently indicates, there is a bit of an interesting wind signal for SNE with this thing.  as the pressure falls while this thing is consolidating/approaching, that typically yields comparatively weaker front-side wind response.  however, as the system them pulls and the vectors come around to the back side, the 'void' tends to fill faster than the balancing isobaric flow - we call that isallobaric wind.   

relax...there's a very simple formula for determining the velocity potential, and it is:

ams2001glos-Ie17    ...any questions?  

seriously though, it's basically the mathematic representation of wind flow that is directed more like straight across the isobars of a weather chart.  it tends to happen in the steeply inclined(ing) gradient regions where pressure fall/rise couplet is excessive. 

that's all code for, ... this has a nice NW/W isallobaric wind look to it, and if it works out, we could be gusting with turbines for a couple of hours on the back side. 

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