Oct 22/23rd Sat /Sun heavy rain, high wind, elevation upslope snow. All of New England

[Ginx snewx]

Models depict a high impact heavy rain wind storm for especially the western 2/3rds of New England as a Miller B redevelops inland over Maine at 983 mb. Rain totals exceeeding 3 inches  could occur from SW CT up through NVT. High winds with gusts in the 40's  are expected with potentially a significant early upslope snow as far south as the Mass Berks where a couple of inches could fall to NVT, NNH where upwards to 6 inches may occur. Its a gullywhomper for some with the best action in the western 2/3rds of NE

[dmillz25]

Signs of the season?

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, dmillz25 said:

Signs of the season?

Looking deeper nearly qualifies as a bomb 1004 to 984 in 24 hrs ( need 24 mb in 24 hrs) but very close.

[dmillz25]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Looking deeper nearly qualifies as a bomb 1004 to 984 in 24 hrs ( need 24 mb in 24 hrs) but very close.

Yeah you might as well call it a bomb. Looking good

[Damage In Tolland]

Take the way under on the rain in SNE. Most of the rain will fall west as usual..and if the tropical low gets involved far ENE up into Maine will be the other rain winner. Friday SNE is warm sectored with dews well into the 60's. 

Should be a wild weekend at Jay Peak though for snow

 

 

[dmillz25]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Looking deeper nearly qualifies as a bomb 1004 to 984 in 24 hrs ( need 24 mb in 24 hrs) but very close.

Yeah you might as well call it a bomb. Looking good

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Take the way under on the rain in SNE. Most of the rain will fall west as usual..and if the tropical low gets involved far ENE up into Maine will be the other rain winner. Friday SNE is warm sectored with dews well into the 60's. 

Should be a wild weekend at Jay Peak though for snow

 

 

taking the NAM over the Euro at plus 72 hrs? Whats the CMC?/ JMA show?

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

taking the NAM over the Euro at plus 72 hrs? Whats the CMC?/ JMA show?

The Euro has been awful on spitting out these massive rain events. Over and over again. Puff puff pass

[klw]

50 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Models depict a high impact heavy rain wind storm for especially the western 2/3rds of New England as a Miller B redevelops inland over Maine at 983 mb. Rain totals exceeeding 3 inches  could occur from SW CT up through NVT. High winds with gusts in the 40's  are expected with potentially a significant early upslope snow as far south as the Mass Berks where a couple of inches could fall to NVT, NNH where upwards to 6 inches may occur. Its a gullywhomper for some with the best action in the western 2/3rds of NE

Which model is the image from?

[SR Airglow]

3 minutes ago, klw said:

Which model is the image from?

That's the 0z Euro I believe.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, klw said:

Which model is the image from?

GFS, Ginxy Forecast System.  It has a known cold and wet bias. 

[Ginx snewx]

27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS, Ginxy Forecast System.  It has a known cold and wet bias. 

SNS, Scooter Nowcast System, 100% correct all the time.

PS  thats the Euro

[Ginx snewx]

42 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The Euro has been awful on spitting out these massive rain events. Over and over again. Puff puff pass

Why would you post a 60 hr NAM image for an event that is in the 78 to 108 time frame, just wondering.

[powderfreak]

Moving from the other thread...

The 00z GGEM was ridiculous.

Perfect placement of stacked low to the NE of us.

 

6z GFS less robust but still great upslope signal. 

•  

[Damage In Tolland]

[CoastalWx]

Are we getting a storm?

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Are we getting a storm?

That RFC forecast through Saturday is very odd

[Ginx snewx]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Take the way under on the rain in SNE. Most of the rain will fall west as usual..and if the tropical low gets involved far ENE up into Maine will be the other rain winner. Friday SNE is warm sectored with dews well into the 60's. 

Should be a wild weekend at Jay Peak though for snow

 

 

You still sticking with the NAM or is it tossed?

[Damage In Tolland]

I think that heavy stuff it's now got over CT ends up over EnE. In other words.. shift everything east in all 3 zones there. Most of CT gets under .50.. and some .25

[powderfreak]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I think that heavy stuff it's now got over CT ends up over EnE. In other words.. shift everything east in all 3 zones there. Most of CT gets under .50.. and some .25

You do seem like you are going out of your way to say no rain regardless of what any given model shows.  

Hopefully you get drenched.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

You do seem like you are going out of your way to say no rain regardless of what any given model shows.  

Hopefully you get drenched.

Not at all.  This has looked like 2 jacks for days. NY state to you and Ene to Maine.  In between you get the 700mb dryslot

[Spanks45]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

You do seem like you are going out of your way to say no rain regardless of what any given model shows.  

Hopefully you get drenched.

The sad part is, I feel myself feeling the same way... My area seems to find any reason to not rain, when everyone else around gets drenched. So, I am also expecting that batch of heavy rain to either not occur or shift to the east. I just hope it all changes this winter....

[klw]

12km 12z Nam says snow is on for VT!  Yeah baby lolis!  Lock it!

[powderfreak]

4 minutes ago, klw said:

12km 12z Nam says snow is on for VT!  Yeah baby lolis!  Lock it!

That run is very interesting.  Nice cold tuck at 925mb too on the backside.  Snow levels plummet to near 1,000ft with 35-50kt NW flow.

 

[blizzard24]

just showers for ct for friday  most of heavy rain west of sne area or over maine or just east of sne area   most models have over estimated  rain fall in last five months for sne area .

[powderfreak]

16 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

The sad part is, I feel myself feeling the same way... My area seems to find any reason to not rain, when everyone else around gets drenched. So, I am also expecting that batch of heavy rain to either not occur or shift to the east. I just hope it all changes this winter....

I get it.  I was in that mode last winter.  The real snows never came (like 4" or more).  After a while in a given pattern it does become pessimistic or optimistic depending on what's been happening repeatedly.  

[Typhoon Tip]

curious how that compares to climatology for > 2,500 feet  ...4,000 etc..

also, as the blend of current oper.'s presently indicates, there is a bit of an interesting wind signal for SNE with this thing.  as the pressure falls while this thing is consolidating/approaching, that typically yields comparatively weaker front-side wind response.  however, as the system them pulls and the vectors come around to the back side, the 'void' tends to fill faster than the balancing isobaric flow - we call that isallobaric wind.   

relax...there's a very simple formula for determining the velocity potential, and it is:

   ...any questions?  

seriously though, it's basically the mathematic representation of wind flow that is directed more like straight across the isobars of a weather chart.  it tends to happen in the steeply inclined(ing) gradient regions where pressure fall/rise couplet is excessive. 

that's all code for, ... this has a nice NW/W isallobaric wind look to it, and if it works out, we could be gusting with turbines for a couple of hours on the back side. 

[klw]

12Z mocks the NAM and goes bonkers with the snow.

 

 

[Ginx snewx]

GFS has flakes in ORH county elevations 

[Ginx snewx]

GFS is pretty dry in SNE, very wet up north