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Fall/Winter Banter '16-'17


Carvers Gap

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22 hours ago, tnweathernut said:

If you spend time in other subforums you will notice people jump cliffs regarding "winter weather" in the month of December almost every year.  It happens in almost every forum, though I think our subforum is the most level headed on the board.  It's actually quite comical when you think about it.

There are claims from amateurs of methods working and methods not working. I am sure you have heard some of them........ The SAI can predict the AO, the SAI is a terrible predictor of the AO. La Nina means this, La Nina means that.  Sunspots are increasing, sunspots are decreasing, there are NO sunspots!  The NAO will likely average negative this year, the NAO will NEVER again average negative in my lifetime, it always snows in Texas and never snows here, The PDO will save us, why isn't the PDO saving us.  Wait, didn't I hear something about the WPO and the EPO?  Did you see the stratosphere at hour 782, man that thing is getting ripped to shreds!  Did you see the MJO?  Man, winter is really on it's way this time.  Sea ice this, sea ice that.  I seriously could go on and on here, but what is my point, right?

I know I am preaching to the choir, but do you know Domino's professes to make nearly 34 million different pizza combinations. (the actual number is much higher if you do the math).  All from 10 combinations of size and crust, 6 different amounts of cheese and 13 sauce choices, and 25 different toppings, each of which you can order in 6 different amounts.

How in the world is anyone supposed to accurately predict what will happen with regards to weather beyond days 5-7?

With Wooly worms and persimmon seeds!!!  Duh?!?!?

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Everyone have a Merry Christmas and/or Happy Hanukkah. Between bouts of rain Saturday and Monday, Christmas Day looks like a gem with highs 65-70. Some sun would be the perfect gift. If it's not going to snow, warm works!

Chiefs better beat the Broncos Sunday night and Oakland needs to lose. Raiders at the top of the AFC West is a major disturbance in the Force. Looks windy in KC; might even have some low top convection. Oh what fun it is!

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2 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Everyone have a Merry Christmas and/or Happy Hanukkah. Between bouts of rain Saturday and Monday, Christmas Day looks like a gem with highs 65-70. Some sun would be the perfect gift. If it's not going to snow, warm works!

Chiefs better beat the Broncos Sunday night and Oakland needs to lose. Raiders at the top of the AFC West is a major disturbance in the Force. Looks windy in KC; might even have some low top convection. Oh what fun it is!

Thanks,

Merry Christmas to you and everyone else as well

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3 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Everyone have a Merry Christmas and/or Happy Hanukkah. Between bouts of rain Saturday and Monday, Christmas Day looks like a gem with highs 65-70. Some sun would be the perfect gift. If it's not going to snow, warm works!

Chiefs better beat the Broncos Sunday night and Oakland needs to lose. Raiders at the top of the AFC West is a major disturbance in the Force. Looks windy in KC; might even have some low top convection. Oh what fun it is!

Same to you!!!  Smorgasbord of sports upcoming.  Eric Berry is the man.  Thanks for all of your weather knowledge!

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On 12/23/2016 at 0:27 PM, nrgjeff said:

Everyone have a Merry Christmas and/or Happy Hanukkah. Between bouts of rain Saturday and Monday, Christmas Day looks like a gem with highs 65-70. Some sun would be the perfect gift. If it's not going to snow, warm works!

Chiefs better beat the Broncos Sunday night and Oakland needs to lose. Raiders at the top of the AFC West is a major disturbance in the Force. Looks windy in KC; might even have some low top convection. Oh what fun it is!

Merry Christmas to you and yours....

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On 12/23/2016 at 4:27 PM, Carvers Gap said:

Smorgasbord of sports upcoming.  Eric Berry is the man. 

Eric Berry is truly an inspiration. Cancer sux but Berry shows we can still fight back!

Meanwhile I am a Denver fan this weekend. Need the Broncos to beat the Raiders at Mile High. KC needs to win at San Diego. Playoffs is nice, but one home game would be helpful. Either way looks like the road goes through New England.

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On 12/24/2016 at 8:16 PM, jaxjagman said:

Mr.Bob,Ramsey had the game of his young career today.So glad we drafted him.Soon as he learns the faster scheme of the NFL (which he's catching on)he's going to make our D much better.My prediction by year 3 he'll be one of the best if not the best CB in the league.:clap:

You guys get a real coach and your team will rebound a lot faster than people think....

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I knew there was a storm not too long ago that reminded me of this one. It's the February 12th 2014 event.  There was a bit of an overrunning event followed by a Miller A development in the GoM. 

The NAM and especially the GFS were way south/east with the system a few days out as the Euro and GGEM trended NW. The GFS was 150-200 miles deep in the GOM and they out to sea most of the week.

 

 This is a NAM map for it from around 36-48 hours out. The NAM kept giving big hits when it was out towards 84 hours away, then lost it

vdrVd0d.jpg

GFS from 36 hours out.

 

equ5uqag.jpg

 

That storm ended up with around 8 inches in NE Alabama, 6 inches near Crossville, 9 inches in my area, near 10 in Chattanooga with thundersnow, 5-7 in TYS and Tri, 8-10 in SWVA.

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1 hour ago, John1122 said:

I knew there was a storm not too long ago that reminded me of this one. It's the February 12th 2014 event.  There was a bit of an overrunning event followed by a Miller A development in the GoM. 

The NAM and especially the GFS were way south/east with the system a few days out as the Euro and GGEM trended NW. The GFS was 150-200 miles deep in the GOM and they out to sea most of the week.

 

 This is a NAM map for it from around 36-48 hours out. The NAM kept giving big hits when it was out towards 84 hours away, then lost it

GFS from 36 hours out.

That storm ended up with around 8 inches in NE Alabama, 6 inches near Crossville, 9 inches in my area, near 10 in Chattanooga with thundersnow, 5-7 in TYS and Tri, 8-10 in SWVA.

Great post!  Why did you put it in banter?

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1 hour ago, John1122 said:

I knew there was a storm not too long ago that reminded me of this one. It's the February 12th 2014 event.  There was a bit of an overrunning event followed by a Miller A development in the GoM. 

The NAM and especially the GFS were way south/east with the system a few days out as the Euro and GGEM trended NW. The GFS was 150-200 miles deep in the GOM and they out to sea most of the week.

 This is a NAM map for it from around 36-48 hours out. The NAM kept giving big hits when it was out towards 84 hours away, then lost it

GFS from 36 hours out.

That storm ended up with around 8 inches in NE Alabama, 6 inches near Crossville, 9 inches in my area, near 10 in Chattanooga with thundersnow, 5-7 in TYS and Tri, 8-10 in SWVA.

Where did that energy originate from?  Pacific or Canada?

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24 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Where did that energy originate from?  Pacific or Canada?

It came off the pacific into New Mexico and Texas. GFS had it strung out at 500, then developed a low 150-200 miles deep in the GoM. Euro and GGem were much more robust the entire time basically and ended up being right. The GFS scrambled back on the last day but never got above 2-3 inch totals for my area. MRX sided with the GFS, gave me a WWA for 1-3 but forecast WSW for the Smokies. 2-3 inches in far NW Scott County is the only part of the MRX cwa that didn't verify warning criteria.

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30 minutes ago, John1122 said:

It came off the pacific into New Mexico and Texas. GFS had it strung out at 500, then developed a low 150-200 miles deep in the GoM. Euro and GGem were much more robust the entire time basically and ended up being right. The GFS scrambled back on the last day but never got above 2-3 inch totals for my area. MRX sided with the GFS, gave me a WWA for 1-3 but forecast WSW for the Smokies. 2-3 inches in far NW Scott County is the only part of the MRX cwa that didn't verify warning criteria.

wow, if you're working off memory on that.. if not, is there a site that archives old model maps or do you just have a personal archive? Oh, haha, I guess there still is a thread on that storm here.. duh!

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7 minutes ago, Vol Man said:

Here is the post storm thread from the Southeast forum.....there were a number of threads leading up to the storm.

 

yeah, I just realized there would still be threads on it... still, be nice if there was a model archive site... analogs at your fingertips....

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I could use some Molson. Do they still have that 7.5% XXX strong beer? Kansas men's hoops wins at the buzzer, driving to the basket, over our in state rival on ESPN Super Tuesday!

Friday system is two free-throws down by one with :03 left. After the weekend looks very mild for a couple weeks. Maybe try again in Feb. Still the sports metaphor is in effect.

12Z Euro arrives. Missed first free throw. I'll check the college basketball schedule instead..

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I tell you what, few things make me happier than seeing how much this forum has grown.  We have people from five different states posting today.  Multiple, multiple cities represented. Posts are quality.  Nice atmosphere.  Increasing number of new posters.  Great to see.  Keep it up, everybody.

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32 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I tell you what, few things make me happier than seeing how much this forum has grown.  We have people from five different states posting today.  Multiple, multiple cities represented. Posts are quality.  Nice atmosphere.  Increasing number of new posters.  Great to see.  Keep it up, everybody.

Hear!  Hear!  I love this sub-forum!  Is this our 3rd winter?

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37 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I tell you what, few things make me happier than seeing how much this forum has grown.  We have people from five different states posting today.  Multiple, multiple cities represented. Posts are quality.  Nice atmosphere.  Increasing number of new posters.  Great to see.  Keep it up, everybody.

I know I don't post often, but I really love this board. I learn more about the weather here than I would anywhere else. 

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