OSUmetstud Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 There's a pretty sharp increase in shear between 06z and 15z indicated on the ships guidance....I think it might be the only thing to save the Island from a major hurricane stirke. The shear indicated is still from a southwesterly direction along motion with good upper level divergence, so it could end up being a wash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 100kt sfmr 953mb extrapolated. Close to the NHC intensity. Bermuda better hope they miss that northeast eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 100kt sfmr 953mb extrapolated. Close to the NHC intensity. Bermuda better hope they miss that northeast eyewall.Actually the worst part of the eyewall will be the SE quadrant relative to storm motion. The hurricane is moving NE. I suspect the next pass will find highest winds in the SE quadrant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 1 minute ago, Windspeed said: Actually the worst part of the eyewall will be the SE quadrant relative to storm motion. The hurricane is moving NE. I suspect the next pass will find highest winds in the SE quadrant. Yep, it's also downshear-right in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 109 kt flight level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 Does anyone have any good live cams from Bermuda so that we can see the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 131mph on the dropsonde, wasn't expecting that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 Dropsonde recorded 114kt before splashdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 8 minutes ago, Amped said: 131mph on the dropsonde, wasn't expecting that. Wouldn't that make it a low-end cat 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 8 minutes ago, WeatherFan202 said: Wouldn't that make it a low-end cat 4. They tend to use multiple data points to assess intensity, combination of reduced flight level winds, sfmr, and dropsonde observations. I'm not sure they would jump up to cat 4 just based on that single data point with no other confirmation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 It has made a few decent wobbles today to the east, so I would say a remote chance it could pass to their east, but they are still getting the western eye wall even in a best case scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 Very rare for the relatively tiny island of Bermuda to be inside the eye of a hurricane. How many times has it happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 101 kt unflagged sfmr in the nw eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 Making sense with the overall improvement in microwave presentation and dropsonde measurements. Eye is also contracting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 3 minutes ago, Jet Stream Rider said: Very rare for the relatively tiny island of Bermuda to be inside the eye of a hurricane. How many times has it happened? They were in whatever that storm was 2 or 3 summers ago. They had footage during the eye where you could hear the tree frogs and it was completely dead calm. It was at night though so you didn't get the full feel or view of what it was like. This time though we may literally see an entirely sunny sky if it comes overhead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 Gonzalo had the eye pass right over. Fabian (the last major) was side swipe, where the west end of the island lulled a bit, but never fully got into the eye. That was still the worst modern impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: They were in whatever that storm was 2 or 3 summers ago. They had footage during the eye where you could hear the tree frogs and it was completely dead calm. It was at night though so you didn't get the full feel or view of what it was like. This time though we may literally see an entirely sunny sky if it comes overhead Amazing. Thanks SnowGoose. Here is a link I found for the Bermuda Weather Service radar: http://www.weather.bm/tools/graphics.asp?name=250KM SRI&user= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 115kts was the highest FL in the SE quad, but the SFMR only yielded 96 kts there. Hopefully she is leveling off now.Strong SW shear axis is hauling eastward towards Nicole. This is very evident on satellite. But it also looks like the hurricane is gaining forward motion NE. Timing is critical for Bermuda. The core may not get disrupted until after it has passed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 Looks like they've turned for one more pass (E to W) before heading home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 119 kt flight level, 111 kt sfmr NE Eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 118kt SFMR... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 NHC 130 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 Would be the first Cat 4 strike on Bermuda on record if it maintains this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 1 minute ago, andyhb said: Would be the first Cat 4 strike on Bermuda on record if it maintains this. 1926 Havana-Bermuda might have been. Not clear, really. It should weaken, that shear is ramping up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 3 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: 1926 Havana-Bermuda might have been. Not clear, really. It should weaken, that shear is ramping up. Scratch that, I meant 1899. It's been awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 From the October 11th 11pm disco Note that while hurricanes often affect Bermuda, a hurricane this strong is rare. There have only been seven major hurricanes that have passed within 40 n mi of Bermuda in the Atlantic hurricane database, which goes back to 1851. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 My hunch is we don't see much if any weakening before closet approach/landfall on Bermuda. The storm motion is largely parallel to the shear, and the strongest convection is up-shear of the center. The NE eyewall convection has weakened a bit over the last hour per warming cloud tops, but it's possible this is temporary. As long as strong convection persists in the W and S quadrants I don't expect significant weakening. There isn't a huge difference between a 105kt and 115kt storm...this will be a significant hit either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 Forward motion appears to be increasing. Plotting this at 15 mph instead of 12 looks like eyewall interaction with the island in less than 8 hours. We're running out of time for any significant weakening. Perhaps this does back off 5 to 10 kts, but I agree this is probably going to strike as an upper Cat 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 AF301 recon just recorded 948 mb on this first pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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