hawkeye_wx Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 Nicole's re-ramp-up has begun. Deep convection is gradually increasing around the center and the outflow is expanding in all directions. Cat 2 appears probable as Nicole moves over or just west of Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 Bermuda is one of those places that has dealt with so many high wind events over the years, they seem to always come through a hurricane with minimal impacts. They have excellent construction codes and prepare well. Having said that, hopefully they miss the eastern eyewall. Hoping this doesn't reach major cane status before getting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 Per 2 PM EST advisory, Nicole has regained hurricane status. Recon dropsonde recorded 982 mb @ 2 kts. 69 kt FL in SE quadrant. They'll be sampling the NE quadrant soon. Looks like Nicole has entered the forecasted strengthening phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 I wonder if anyone has a data set that could answer this question -- what is the longest interval between two different hurricane designations for any tropical storm? Nicole was a hurricane last week for several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 I wonder if anyone has a data set that could answer this question -- what is the longest interval between two different hurricane designations for any tropical storm? Nicole was a hurricane last week for several days. That's a tough one. Your best bet would be to pour through the unisys track archives year by year and pick out the longest tracking systems. I suspect the system you're looking for is going to be a late season Cape Verde hurricane that got picked up by a trough, sheared, weakened, but was left behind. Meandered or looped for many days until finding itself in another favorable environment and SSTs for restrengthening. In that respect, I would focus on looping systems in the central Atlantic. Then match the advisory archives with the longest lasting ones. Good luck with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 75 kts FL @ 132° NE quadrant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 Euro looks like it may have ticked west from 00Z. Right now I think they may escape the worst, but may only take a 30-40 mile shift east for a direct hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 Gonna go out on a limb and say it's not moving along the forecast track at present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 6 minutes ago, Amped said: Gonna go out on a limb and say it's not moving along the forecast track at present. Looks like a WSW movement to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 and just about 0 models predicted this WSW movement / wobble. Maybe 1. maybe the ridge of High pressure is stronger than forecasted. Something typically seen with winter storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 18z GFS jussssst a bit closer to Bermuda than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 The B is delaying the Wallops launch! Grrrrrrrr!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 still a SW movement. this is what happens when we lack more accurate observation data over the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 23 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said: still a SW movement. this is what happens when we lack more accurate observation data over the ocean. All (almost) hurricanes form over the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 Nicole is getting that look. Bermuda is going to have to deal with a major cane. The structure continues to improve and outflow is taking off to the north. The SSTs are sufficient enough to support further intensification, especially now that Nicole is gaining forward motion. This may get close to a 4 by the time it moves over the island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 There may be some amazing videos out of Bermuda tomorrow inside the eye if the eye remains that big and crosses directly over. I know the eye passed over 2 years ago but it was at night. Hopefully not a Cat 4...they can withstand up to low end 3 pretty well I think with the building codes, but its tougher after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 We needs the recon. We really needs it. This is likely a major now. The mid-level circulation is fastly improving even over a few hours ago. Easy to discern with such a large eye. NHC will probably go with 105 kts at 5 EST until we have some recon data from the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 3 minutes ago, Windspeed said: We needs the recon. We really needs it. This is likely a major now. The mid-level circulation is fastly improving even over a few hours ago. Easy to discern with such a large eye. NHC will probably go with 105 kts at 5 EST until we have some recon data from the surface. Nice visible mesovorticies in eye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 Recon just took off from MS. Not sure they'll make it in time for the 5 PM, but I'll be surprised if they don't find a stronger hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 48 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Recon just took off from MS. Not sure they'll make it in time for the 5 PM, but I'll be surprised if they don't find a stronger hurricane. 5PM 110 MPH 962 MB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 Recon just took off from MS. Not sure they'll make it in time for the 5 PM, but I'll be surprised if they don't find a stronger hurricane.I misread. AF301 mission prepping for 06z intercept. AF309 is now in the air en route to Nicole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 On 10/11/2016 at 2:39 PM, Roger Smith said: I wonder if anyone has a data set that could answer this question -- what is the longest interval between two different hurricane designations for any tropical storm? Nicole was a hurricane last week for several days. I dunno about longest interval but Ophelia has to be close to the record for number of times she went back and forth between cane and TS... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Ophelia_(2005) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 Very persistent large eye. Would be at least as bad as Gonzalo if it made a direct hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 Eye is about three times the size of Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 Definitely looks like Bermuda is going to get a landfall basing off the most current vector (and forecast cone)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 This is a very good look via the Bermuda weather service: http://www.weather.bm/tools/graphics.asp?name=LOCAL_SATELLITE&user= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 Recon should be there in about 45 minutes, en route now. They're going to get smoked from the looks of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 There will be stronger winds from Nicole over Bermuda than from Matthew at any point in the United States. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 Kind of quiet in here considering the situation. Not much major news coverage either. Fatiuge over Matthew I guess. Did anyone have Nicole getting to cat 3 strength last week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 Cat 3, 115mph, 956mb @8:00pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.