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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Fall into Winter!

BuffaloWeather

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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Posted
1 minute ago, Syrmax said:

I've studied Bastardispeak for 30 years so I can interpret...hype hype blah blah hype. 

Pretty much this but December will IMO be our best winter weather month. Based on every analog and long range outlook it looks like December to mid January is our best time.

The AO and NAO go negative:

CxZzWBtXcAACc-w.jpg:large

 

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AppsRunner

AppsRunner

Posted
Posted

Very interesting storm upcoming. Very curious to see how Lake Ontario responds, and how the shorelines do with accumulations. 

With very strong Delta T's off Lake Ontario combined with strong (40-50kt) winds aloft, I'd bet that any pure lake effect is very multicellular, but very intense within the cells themselves. The GFS/NAM have been fairly stable in spinning the low in a favorable spot for most of the south shore, with added synoptic moisture. A few good shortwaves rotating through would likely enhance things as well. It's certainly going to be very windy especially along the lake, and wind advisories are a pretty distinct possibility. 

Early calls off Ontario...

  • Oswego - 3.8"
  • Watertown - 6.4"
  • Syracuse - 7.5"
  • Tug Hill (max) - 15"

Will revisit tomorrow afternoon, with a final call Saturday afternoon. 

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wolfie09

wolfie09

Posted
Posted

Nam coming into range and looking pretty good, through Monday AM..

Hwo 

AS MUCH COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION...AN ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF ACCUMULATING SNOW...FALLING TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY
WINDS MAY CREATE SLICK ROADS AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS IN
SOME AREAS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS AND
LONGEST DURATION OF SNOW MAY BE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

IMG_0033.PNG

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rochesterdave

rochesterdave

Posted
Posted

Hi Guys.Missed you all. Lol

Odd set up for November. Typically, the first cold snaps arrive on a SW flow. Want proof? Check out November snowfall in Buf as compared to Roc. So a NW flow is a bit unprecedented which makes this really exciting. 

As a couple of you have already mentioned, it's the short fetch combined with high winds that will be the big limiting factors here. The moisture rich enviro can likely overcome one of these, but NOT both in my humble, uneducated opinion. I can't remember a LES event along the south shore that was accompanied by strong gusty winds. Hell, I can't remember a LES snow event along the south shore ever this early. We see our best results in Jan-Early March on Light N winds associated with low pressure systems passing across PA. 

But Ill be watching this unusual set-up like a hawk!!

love it! Glad to be back!!!!!

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AppsRunner

AppsRunner

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Posted
49 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Don't have access to QPF at work but that Euro hits the block and retrogrades back towards Montreal. Pretty awesome run for those SE of Ontario. I may have to up my amounts, run is a tad colder as well. 

ROC 0.8"

SYR 1.2"

ART 0.8"

BUF 0.3"

All liquid equivalent. Full post coming soon 

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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3 minutes ago, AppsRunner said:

ROC 0.8"

SYR 1.2"

ART 0.8"

BUF 0.3"

All liquid equivalent. Full post coming soon 

Yeah looks good for you guys. I think immediate lakeshore will definitely struggle with accumulations. But once you get 20-30 miles away from lakeshore you should be good. I think Winter Storm Watches will be issued soon for Roc/Syr/Art. Lake Snow Warnings for Chat/Cat and WWA for Buffalo. 

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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Hot off the presses. They kept the lakeshore counties with no watches.  

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
158 PM EST FRI NOV 18 2016

NYZ009-016>018-036-037-044>046-191900-
/O.NEW.KBGM.LE.A.0003.161120T0600Z-161122T0000Z/
NORTHERN ONEIDA-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-MADISON-
SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-OTSEGO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOONVILLE...SENECA FALLS...AUBURN...
SYRACUSE...HAMILTON...ONEIDA...ROME...UTICA...CORTLAND...
NORWICH...ONEONTA
158 PM EST FRI NOV 18 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

* LOCATIONS...SENECA, SOUTHERN CAYUGA, ONONDAGA, ONEIDA, MADISON,
  CORTLAND, CHENANGO AND OTSEGO COUNTIES IN NEW YORK.

* HAZARD TYPES...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND
  DRIFTING SNOW FROM STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 7 TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CHANGE
  TO SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. LAKE EFFECT
  SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY,
  BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
  ALSO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND LAST THROUGH MONDAY.

* IMPACTS...THE HEAVY SNOW COULD MAKE ROADS VERY SLIPPERY LEADING
  TO VERY DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO LEAD
  TO CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND EVEN DOWN SOME
  TREES LEADING TO SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...AROUND 30.
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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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9-18 for Southern Tier. 

..LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM
EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...CHAUTAUQUA...CATTARAUGUS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN ERIE
  COUNTIES.

* TIMING...FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
  MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...AN INCH OR LESS SATURDAY...4 TO 8 INCHES
  SATURDAY NIGHT...4 TO 7 INCHES SUNDAY...2 TO 4 INCHES SUNDAY
  NIGHT...AND AN INCH OR LESS MONDAY...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS
  OF 9 TO 18 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.
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rochesterdave

rochesterdave

Posted
Posted

Hmmm. I'm gonna have to re-up my Euro subscription with Ryan Mauer. Still think the south shore struggles. I like the hills around Syracuse for this one and especially the Boston hills South East of Buf. 

Boston: 16"

Skaneatles: 8"

Syracuse: 6"

Roc: 2" (lakeshore 0")

Buf: .5"

All Snowfall Guesses from idiot pictured above

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DeltaT13

DeltaT13

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, ayuud11 said:

Quite the Georgian Bay Connection.  I wondered if that would come into play.  This gives me hope in my location on the west side of Rochester.  Ive been pummeled by the band a few times over the years.  

 

18z BTV 4km WRF goes bonkers with that Ontario band, congrats Batavia!

 

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2s6oglu.png

 

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