Buffalo Bumble Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 Since we're throwing numbers out there.... WNY: Dayton - 9" (BUF - 3"; ROC - 4") CNY: Tully - 8" (SYR - 5") Dacks: Saranac Lake - 11" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 Beyond my interpretation. Anyone care to comment on this? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 Buf 2.3 roc 5.1 syr 6.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 BUF 1.2ROC 1.9SYR 8.6Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 7 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Beyond my interpretation. Anyone care to comment on this? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I've studied Bastardispeak for 30 years so I can interpret...hype hype blah blah hype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2016 Author Share Posted November 18, 2016 1 minute ago, Syrmax said: I've studied Bastardispeak for 30 years so I can interpret...hype hype blah blah hype. Pretty much this but December will IMO be our best winter weather month. Based on every analog and long range outlook it looks like December to mid January is our best time. The AO and NAO go negative: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 Very interesting storm upcoming. Very curious to see how Lake Ontario responds, and how the shorelines do with accumulations. With very strong Delta T's off Lake Ontario combined with strong (40-50kt) winds aloft, I'd bet that any pure lake effect is very multicellular, but very intense within the cells themselves. The GFS/NAM have been fairly stable in spinning the low in a favorable spot for most of the south shore, with added synoptic moisture. A few good shortwaves rotating through would likely enhance things as well. It's certainly going to be very windy especially along the lake, and wind advisories are a pretty distinct possibility. Early calls off Ontario... Oswego - 3.8" Watertown - 6.4" Syracuse - 7.5" Tug Hill (max) - 15" Will revisit tomorrow afternoon, with a final call Saturday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 What say you for roc area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 Nam coming into range and looking pretty good, through Monday AM.. Hwo AS MUCH COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION...AN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF ACCUMULATING SNOW...FALLING TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS MAY CREATE SLICK ROADS AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS IN SOME AREAS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS AND LONGEST DURATION OF SNOW MAY BE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 11 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Don't worry, if we see it you'll be my second PM, right after Millsville. We can all go chasing together. Just shoot a symbol of a snowflake in the sky. I'll be there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 Hi Guys.Missed you all. Lol Odd set up for November. Typically, the first cold snaps arrive on a SW flow. Want proof? Check out November snowfall in Buf as compared to Roc. So a NW flow is a bit unprecedented which makes this really exciting. As a couple of you have already mentioned, it's the short fetch combined with high winds that will be the big limiting factors here. The moisture rich enviro can likely overcome one of these, but NOT both in my humble, uneducated opinion. I can't remember a LES event along the south shore that was accompanied by strong gusty winds. Hell, I can't remember a LES snow event along the south shore ever this early. We see our best results in Jan-Early March on Light N winds associated with low pressure systems passing across PA. But Ill be watching this unusual set-up like a hawk!! love it! Glad to be back!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2016 Author Share Posted November 18, 2016 BUF- 1.6" ROC- 3.4" SYR- 7.1" Perrsburg- 10.1" Tug Max- 12.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2016 Author Share Posted November 18, 2016 Don't have access to QPF at work but that Euro hits the block and retrogrades back towards Montreal. Pretty awesome run for those SE of Ontario. I may have to up my amounts, run is a tad colder as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 49 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Don't have access to QPF at work but that Euro hits the block and retrogrades back towards Montreal. Pretty awesome run for those SE of Ontario. I may have to up my amounts, run is a tad colder as well. ROC 0.8" SYR 1.2" ART 0.8" BUF 0.3" All liquid equivalent. Full post coming soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2016 Author Share Posted November 18, 2016 3 minutes ago, AppsRunner said: ROC 0.8" SYR 1.2" ART 0.8" BUF 0.3" All liquid equivalent. Full post coming soon Yeah looks good for you guys. I think immediate lakeshore will definitely struggle with accumulations. But once you get 20-30 miles away from lakeshore you should be good. I think Winter Storm Watches will be issued soon for Roc/Syr/Art. Lake Snow Warnings for Chat/Cat and WWA for Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2016 Author Share Posted November 18, 2016 Hot off the presses. They kept the lakeshore counties with no watches. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 158 PM EST FRI NOV 18 2016 NYZ009-016>018-036-037-044>046-191900- /O.NEW.KBGM.LE.A.0003.161120T0600Z-161122T0000Z/ NORTHERN ONEIDA-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-MADISON- SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-OTSEGO- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOONVILLE...SENECA FALLS...AUBURN... SYRACUSE...HAMILTON...ONEIDA...ROME...UTICA...CORTLAND... NORWICH...ONEONTA 158 PM EST FRI NOV 18 2016 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. * LOCATIONS...SENECA, SOUTHERN CAYUGA, ONONDAGA, ONEIDA, MADISON, CORTLAND, CHENANGO AND OTSEGO COUNTIES IN NEW YORK. * HAZARD TYPES...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW FROM STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 7 TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. * TIMING...RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND LAST THROUGH MONDAY. * IMPACTS...THE HEAVY SNOW COULD MAKE ROADS VERY SLIPPERY LEADING TO VERY DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO LEAD TO CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND EVEN DOWN SOME TREES LEADING TO SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. * WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...AROUND 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2016 Author Share Posted November 18, 2016 9-18 for Southern Tier. ..LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...CHAUTAUQUA...CATTARAUGUS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTIES. * TIMING...FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING. * ACCUMULATIONS...AN INCH OR LESS SATURDAY...4 TO 8 INCHES SATURDAY NIGHT...4 TO 7 INCHES SUNDAY...2 TO 4 INCHES SUNDAY NIGHT...AND AN INCH OR LESS MONDAY...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 9 TO 18 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS. * WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2016 Author Share Posted November 18, 2016 10-20 for Fulton. ACCUMULATIONS...10 TO 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 Hmmm. I'm gonna have to re-up my Euro subscription with Ryan Mauer. Still think the south shore struggles. I like the hills around Syracuse for this one and especially the Boston hills South East of Buf. Boston: 16" Skaneatles: 8" Syracuse: 6" Roc: 2" (lakeshore 0") Buf: .5" All Snowfall Guesses from idiot pictured above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 Hi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 Through Tues. morn.: SYR: 14" ROC: 8" BUF: 2" Tug Hill, Hills/towns SE, S, SW of SYR will Jackpot...over 20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2016 Author Share Posted November 18, 2016 43 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: Hi. Welcome back Sir, you have been missed. This place in summer is just me talking to myself. I thought I was the biggest snow lover here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 Yea, really nice run on the euro.. About 1.8" of total precipitation, we obviously waste some of that to rain early Sunday but from sun afternoon through Monday afternoon it's pure bliss.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 Meanwhile...it was 70 degrees at BUF just before 5PM with a light south breeze and crystal clear blue skies. Amazing day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 2 hours ago, LakeEffectKing said: Through Tues. morn.: SYR: 14" ROC: 8" BUF: 2" Tug Hill, Hills/towns SE, S, SW of SYR will Jackpot...over 20" Hi George! 14"? Huge! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 Nice 1/2 footer by 7pm Sunday when things are just starting to ramp up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2016 Author Share Posted November 18, 2016 Just now, wolfie09 said: Nice 1/2 footer by 7pm Sunday when things are just starting to ramp up I like this one better. Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 18z BTV 4km WRF goes bonkers with that Ontario band, congrats Batavia! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 22 minutes ago, ayuud11 said: Quite the Georgian Bay Connection. I wondered if that would come into play. This gives me hope in my location on the west side of Rochester. Ive been pummeled by the band a few times over the years. 18z BTV 4km WRF goes bonkers with that Ontario band, congrats Batavia! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 Any one know how much snow euro is calling for in roc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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