SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 Keep dreaming. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 15, 2016 Author Share Posted November 15, 2016 1 minute ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Keep dreaming. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk That's what the highest rated model just showed. 0% chance of happening though. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 Hmm at first I thought I was just missing the decimal point when I saw this tweet from Joe B. Guess not. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 15, 2016 Author Share Posted November 15, 2016 7 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Hmm at first I thought I was just missing the decimal point when I saw this tweet from Joe B. Guess not. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk It's the only model that develops the very strong secondary low over SE NY. It's a possible scenario, but pretty unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Keep dreaming. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Nice to see Rochester in the jackpot even if it's just fantasyland, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 I'm on the board a few days ago and everyone's talking about how this winter is gonna be a dud and not going to get started until at least middle of December and today I come on and see model runs of 27 inches of snow in Buffalo in the next 6-7 days. What the heck happened (not that I'm complaining) ?!? Great, now I'll be up till at least midnight tonight watching model runs. Ah back to the winter season..! How sweet it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 18Z GFS looked good again for some wraparound and lake enhancement Sunday night and Monday. Not an expert so not really sure how much Lake Ontario can add but RH and wind alignment looked real good. Need to get that deformation a bit further west. Starting to get a bit interested in this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 Not to jump to far ahead but 18GFS sure has turkey day looking interesting now... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 Cmc and gfs are worlds apart on 00z runs. Whats euro got up its sleeve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 Huge run to run variability. Having hard time with pattern change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 16, 2016 Author Share Posted November 16, 2016 1 hour ago, tim123 said: Huge run to run variability. Having hard time with pattern change? All at 96 hours: Anywhere from a few hundred miles north of Ottawa to central Virginia. GFS: Euro: GEM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 Dang euro going crazy with the snowfall amounts, good lord.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southbuffalowx Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 4 hours ago, ayuud11 said: Dang euro going crazy with the snowfall amounts, good lord.. What did last night's run show? Hopefully the other models start trending towards the Euro and not the other way around.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 16, 2016 Author Share Posted November 16, 2016 The Canadian trended towards the Euro. The Euro has been quite persistent and got even colder this run. Starting to think Higher Elevations SE of Ontario get some really good amounts with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 What a cutoff on the Canadian lol Keeps temps in the lower 40s while the euro is 33/34.. Good thing we still have several days to figure this out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 18Z GFS looks like a pedestrian cold FROPA with some backside snow showers. Kind of what I would expect for this time of year. Color me skeptical for any kind of big event this weekend, especially anywhere except higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 Reality check with the 12z runs... EuroGFSSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 2 hours ago, Buffalo Bumble said: 18Z GFS looks like a pedestrian cold FROPA with some backside snow showers. Kind of what I would expect for this time of year. Color me skeptical for any kind of big event this weekend, especially anywhere except higher elevations. Yeah.. I don't buy in to anything more than a slushy inch for the lower elevations and maybe Perrysburg squeaks out 6" on a ridge top...Next please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 The locals are really pushing the envelope putting up accumulation forecasts already... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 15 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: The locals are really pushing the envelope putting up accumulation forecasts already... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk To be fair channel 4 said that it was just one model output and what could possibly fall worst case scenario and not an actual forecast or likely amounts. But I agree it's ridiculous this early to put out a map for an event 4-5 days away to the public who sees something and runs with it. I had people at my work in Hamburg today telling me "oh did you hear we're supposed to get a snowstorm this weekend? We re supposed to get 6-12" according to the news." They're all way overdone and too Bullish. T-1 " below 800ft. 1-2" between 800-1200ft and 2-4" above 1200ft with an isolated 6" lolli above 1800'. For this time of the year it's not even note worthy. I don't know what all the hoopla is about. I swear the media gets worse and worse each winter when it comes to snowfall, especially the first ones of the year. There's a problem when I turn the news on and the lead headline and story is the possibility for significant snow 4-5 days from now that is likely almost a non event for the majority of the population in WNY. For crying out loud it's almost December, not October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Reality check with the 12z runs... Euro GFS Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Euro has precipitation out to 18z Tuesday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2016 Author Share Posted November 17, 2016 Yeah those stations are basing it off the Euro. The Euro and GEM show pretty big accumulations. However, you're going to have to have elevation in this one. Perrysburg, Warsaw, Tug Hill will get the most. Wouldn't be surprised 6+ in those locales. 1-3" elsewhere, nothing along lake shores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 With social media today this is the problem. The locals can't plaster these maps on their page so carelessly anymore. The general public is getting all riled up with this big storm that is now starting to dud out. Don Paul had a nice post somewhat scolding them saying its just to early to issue public forecasts for this event. After Snovember the general public is gun shy on storm forecasts and it seems like the media just wants to be the first to forecast it even if it's unreliable data at the time. Not to mention these local mets are just spewing non sense and lies to the public. I just watched a Facebook live from Kevin OC. "We use the Euro and NAM because they are the only 2 models that project beyond 48 hours". "I'm confident this will be a mild winter and we will not come anywhere near our seasonal average snowfall". Why do they say this stuff!?!?! And they wonder why the public rags on them and has trust issues with their forecasts. Funny how the NWS took so much heat after Snovember yet they are the responsible ones so far just saying there will be an abrupt weather change this weekend, it's going to snow on Sunday, but it's to early to tell where and how much. No need to hype that's all the public needs to know at this point. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2016 Author Share Posted November 17, 2016 The long range looks terrible for lake effect IMO. The Polar vortex is on the other side of the globe and looks to continue to strengthen throughout the winter which would make consistent arctic air almost impossible to come by. If we don't cash in on the -AO and - NAO from December into Mid January we're going to have a terrible winter I think. Could be one of the worst lake effect seasons in awhile. The Pacific dominated flow is just stubborn and hasn't moved at all in forever. Remember 11-12 season with that stubborn polar vortex and 40" of snow for the year? We need that thing to move, Canada is just a constant blowtorch with 10-15+ above normal temps. This pattern has looked like this for the last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2016 Author Share Posted November 17, 2016 3 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: With social media today this is the problem. The locals can't plaster these maps on their page so carelessly anymore. The general public is getting all riled up with this big storm that is now starting to dud out. Don Paul had a nice post somewhat scolding them saying its just to early to issue public forecasts for this event. After Snovember the general public is gun shy on storm forecasts and it seems like the media just wants to be the first to forecast it even if it's unreliable data at the time. Not to mention these local mets are just spewing non sense and lies to the public. I just watched a Facebook live from Kevin OC. "We use the Euro and NAM because they are the only 2 models that project beyond 48 hours". "I'm confident this will be a mild winter and we will not come anywhere near our seasonal average snowfall". Why do they say this stuff!?!?! And they wonder why the public rags on them and has trust issues with their forecasts. Funny how the NWS took so much heat after Snovember yet they are the responsible ones so far just saying there will be an abrupt weather change this weekend, it's going to snow on Sunday, but it's to early to tell where and how much. No need to hype that's all the public needs to know at this point. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk They should never be posting snow maps a week ahead of time. I don't know what changed in them this year or just excited about winter or something. But they should not be posting GFS/Euro 184 hour snowfall maps...Only us weenies on this forum are allowed to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2016 Author Share Posted November 17, 2016 Look at the weather channel... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2016 Author Share Posted November 17, 2016 5 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: With social media today this is the problem. The locals can't plaster these maps on their page so carelessly anymore. The general public is getting all riled up with this big storm that is now starting to dud out. Don Paul had a nice post somewhat scolding them saying its just to early to issue public forecasts for this event. After Snovember the general public is gun shy on storm forecasts and it seems like the media just wants to be the first to forecast it even if it's unreliable data at the time. Not to mention these local mets are just spewing non sense and lies to the public. I just watched a Facebook live from Kevin OC. "We use the Euro and NAM because they are the only 2 models that project beyond 48 hours". "I'm confident this will be a mild winter and we will not come anywhere near our seasonal average snowfall". Why do they say this stuff!?!?! And they wonder why the public rags on them and has trust issues with their forecasts. Funny how the NWS took so much heat after Snovember yet they are the responsible ones so far just saying there will be an abrupt weather change this weekend, it's going to snow on Sunday, but it's to early to tell where and how much. No need to hype that's all the public needs to know at this point. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Kevin isn't even a degreed Meteorologist. He has a Bachelors degree in political science. I don't even watch channel 2 for that sole reason. I cannot wait until he retires and a real Met is put in his place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2016 Author Share Posted November 17, 2016 I also wanted to point out how I think Canadian snow cover is more important than Siberian snow cover for the Great Lakes. We're at record low snow cover in Canada this year. Siberia is record high snow cover. Since we have neutral Enso conditions whatever happens this winter will determine where snow cover is more important in having a good winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 Channel 4 just put out their actual forecast map (which they shouldn't even be doing either at this time) and it at least looks far more reasonable with a slushy 1-2 inches in the metro area, Southtowns,and lower elevations of Chautauqua county with even less north of the northtowns, 2-4" from Boston and Colden through Springville and into Wyoming county with the majority of Cattaragus, Allegany and the interior part of Chautauqua county seeing 3-6". Still think it's too early to know for sure if this will be a minor or more moderate event but at this point I'd lean more towards minor. Still a couple more days for things to change in modeling though before we really lock in on a solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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