BuffaloWeather Posted November 9, 2016 Author Share Posted November 9, 2016 15 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Is that you walking around with your GoPro in Russia?? Impressive chase!!! Haha! I wish! That would be an epic chase, did you see the horses at the end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 9, 2016 Author Share Posted November 9, 2016 10 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: It's real early, but I've been noticing that any type of cold in the longer range keeps getting pushed back or disappearing altogether. These ratters or even big winters (13-14, 14-15) do seem to hit back to back. We've had such a long run of warmth, it's hard to imagine a big reversal with consecutive below normal months. A step down to normal temps for DJFM might be best case, which would still give us a lot of snow chances. When all seasonal guidance goes warm it gives pause to any below normal winter outlooks. Usually neutral/weak Ninas lead to normal winters around here. But that record breaking El Nino last year is having its effects still. The warm north Pacific is controlling our weather right now. There is no where for the cold to come from as Canada is a giant torch right now. The call for a quick start to winter is a long shot. If anything we have Jan-March to look forward to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 9, 2016 Author Share Posted November 9, 2016 I found a really cool podcast from some Mets out of NYC that talk about the upcoming winter pattern. They run a segment every Monday. http://www.blogtalkradio.com/nymetrowx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 10, 2016 Author Share Posted November 10, 2016 Winterbells winter forecast is out. Shows a very cold/snowy December for our area. http://www.weatherbell.com/winter-seasonal-forecast-update?utm_source=Copy+of+Winter+2016-17+Forecast+Oct+(Premium)&utm_campaign=Winter+Forecast+(Premium)&utm_medium=email Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 10, 2016 Author Share Posted November 10, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 10, 2016 Author Share Posted November 10, 2016 The cold air continues to be over Europe with more record cold/snow in Switzerland and Sweden the last few days. In the long range this looks to eventually be replaced by a ridge. I definitely still see the pattern change way out there but just taking its sweet time to arrive. Buffalos average high for tomorrow is 50 and low is 35. We need some really below average stuff right now to get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 10, 2016 Author Share Posted November 10, 2016 You can see that GOA vortex weaken and strengthen quite a bit over the next 10 days. What really worries me is Canada is just a constant torch through the entire run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted November 10, 2016 Share Posted November 10, 2016 I'll take what the 6z GFS is showing and run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 10, 2016 Author Share Posted November 10, 2016 2 hours ago, ayuud11 said: I'll take what the 6z GFS is showing and run! Yeah, definitely a change from hours 240 and on to the end of the run. Be interesting to see if it will be a trend or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 11, 2016 Author Share Posted November 11, 2016 18 GFS looks great for next weekend and thanksgiving weekend for some possible LES. Definitely the best run of the year so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 13, 2016 Author Share Posted November 13, 2016 The latest GFS is cold enough for snow from hours 200 to the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 13 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: The latest GFS is cold enough for snow from hours 200 to the end of the run. Check out the 12z OP GFS and the Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 13, 2016 Author Share Posted November 13, 2016 3 hours ago, ayuud11 said: Check out the 12z OP GFS and the Canadian. Yeah, it looked ggood. Definitely a huge change from the last few week model runs. We need to build up that snowcover across Canada and upper Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 12z is a nice fantasy run for CNY. Now that I'm finally resigned to Summer being over and my snowblower maintenance is done, I guess we might as well make winter great again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 13, 2016 Author Share Posted November 13, 2016 7 minutes ago, Gravestone Doji said: 12z is a nice fantasy run for CNY. Now that I'm finally resigned to Summer being over and my snowblower maintenance is done, I guess we might as well make winter great again. I think we are going to do much better synoptically than the last 5 years or so. When was the last year our area has been the focal point of synoptic? 13/14 was Chicago/Detroit corridor, 14/15 was Boston, 15/16 had that huge storm in mid Atlantic. 11/12, 12/13 were just terrible winters. I think 2010 was the last good year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 13, 2016 Author Share Posted November 13, 2016 Pretty high chance of below normal temps day 9-11 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 12 hours ago, Gravestone Doji said: 12z is a nice fantasy run for CNY. Now that I'm finally resigned to Summer being over and my snowblower maintenance is done, I guess we might as well make winter great again. Nice run on the 0z Canadian for upstate.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 12 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: I think we are going to do much better synoptically than the last 5 years or so. When was the last year our area has been the focal point of synoptic? 13/14 was Chicago/Detroit corridor, 14/15 was Boston, 15/16 had that huge storm in mid Atlantic. 11/12, 12/13 were just terrible winters. I think 2010 was the last good year? Not sure about 2010 but i think late in 07-08 had one of the best synoptic storm tracks for our area, i think BUF had like two back to back 18"+ storms.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 If I could only show what the European showed Lol ..Found this floating around.. Still to far out to make much of it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 14, 2016 Author Share Posted November 14, 2016 13 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: If I could only show what the European showed Lol ..Found this floating around.. Still to far out to make much of it.. Yeah it looked like a good run. Wxbell is $24.99 a month now which I think is to much. I think I am going to get EuroWX which is $9.99 a month or American has a winter package for $39.99 but do you know if that includes Euro Snowfall Maps? Wxbell is the only one I believe you're not supposed to post on this forum, the others are fair game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 14, 2016 Author Share Posted November 14, 2016 Have a buddy from Slovakia that has been getting quite a bit of snow. This is from Ukraine. Europe has been getting one of its snowiest Novembers ever. Romania: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 14, 2016 Author Share Posted November 14, 2016 I haven't seen Channel 4 have a long range snowfall map like this before. Maybe our first inch on Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 If I lived downwind off the lakes in the upcoming pattern, I would be pretty excited. Areas that typically get hit on west and northwest flow should start sharpening those shovels. I said a while back that things will be changing by Mid November around the Lakes and I'm sticking to my guns. I'll be keeping tabs myself. In the mean time, looking to get some upslope down my way in the Mtns. Hopefully I can have it occur at a time I can be off of work to take it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 15, 2016 Author Share Posted November 15, 2016 29 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: If I lived downwind off the lakes in the upcoming pattern, I would be pretty excited. Areas that typically get hit on west and northwest flow should start sharpening those shovels. I said a while back that things will be changing by Mid November around the Lakes and I'm sticking to my guns. I'll be keeping tabs myself. In the mean time, looking to get some upslope down my way in the Mtns. Hopefully I can have it occur at a time I can be off of work to take it in You look to be right based on the latest EPS. Lake effect wind direction is impossible to predict outside of 3-4 days, but definitely liking the long range pattern quite a bit more with the last week or so of model runs. The euro weeklies looked great from Mid Dec into January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 15, 2016 Author Share Posted November 15, 2016 With this setup I wouldn't be surprised if Perrysburg and higher elevations of the Tug get some decent totals later on in the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 59 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: You look to be right based on the latest EPS. Lake effect wind direction is impossible to predict outside of 3-4 days, but definitely liking the long range pattern quite a bit more with the last week or so of model runs. The euro weeklies looked great from Mid Dec into January. This is what I was seeing, albeit, the troughiness in the west still looks to hang around. The key is the increased heights across the central US. This helps create a greater trough axis in the east with northern stream dominant systems. The long range GFS I think is a bit too gung-ho on the prospects of any coastals, but I guess a Miller B type system could be squeezed out with a robust shortwave digging south of Ohio Valley. This pattern looks prime though for strengthening shortwave troughs within the amplified long wave trough axis east of the MidWest. It's a dominant NW flow regime over basically record warm lakes, I wouldn't be surprised if we see a prolific LES event the next 2-4 weeks for the typical spots like Perrysburg and the Tug as you mentioned before, but also for areas like Oswego down to Syracuse that need a strong NW to get a long lasting LES event. I'm curious to see how this pattern unfolds as models are starting to open the door for better winter potential starting earlier than most were expecting just looking 5-10 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 Kbuf The trough will then dig into the Northeast States Sunday and Monday. Model guidance continues to suggest a complex interaction with a closed low and associated surface low sitting over the North Atlantic, with the two systems phasing to some extent and forming a deep cutoff low over New England and southeast Canada. While there is high confidence of the longwave trough and associated much colder temperatures, model guidance continues to show a wide variation with respect to the synoptic details for Sunday and Monday. Extensive wrap around moisture behind the complex system over New England will support periods of precipitation Sunday through at least a portion of Monday. The airmass will grow cold enough for some wet snow to mix in across higher terrain by Sunday morning, with the transition to snow then progressing into the lower elevations Sunday afternoon and evening. By later Sunday night and Monday the airmass will grow cold enough to support all snow. Lake induced equilibrium levels will also rise to over 10K feet, with lake enhancement possible southeast of the lakes. Given the complex scenario of the synoptic evolution and run to run model differences, any one model run should be taken with a grain of salt with respect to snow potential. That said, the pattern evolution does support the possibility of at least a modest amount of snow over much of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 Nice to see model runs trending in our favor as we close in on this complex storm. The interplay between the East Coast cutoff low and the approaching longwave trough will certainly be interesting. How good is the sampling off the east coast in regards to strength and placement of that cutoff low? Something we typically don't have to worry about. Anyway, it's nice to see a deep, strengthening low pressure just to our east with fairly significant wrap around moisture and relatively cold 850's. I'm not in a prime spot on the South shore of Ontario but I'm feeling excited. It's going to be tough to get the boundary temps low enough in my neck of the woods initially but it'll be close. Sunday into Monday will certainly be raw compared to what we have been experiencing. Perhaps I'll put the snow tires on this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 2 hours ago, DeltaT13 said: Nice to see model runs trending in our favor as we close in on this complex storm. The interplay between the East Coast cutoff low and the approaching longwave trough will certainly be interesting. How good is the sampling off the east coast in regards to strength and placement of that cutoff low? Something we typically don't have to worry about. Anyway, it's nice to see a deep, strengthening low pressure just to our east with fairly significant wrap around moisture and relatively cold 850's. I'm not in a prime spot on the South shore of Ontario but I'm feeling excited. It's going to be tough to get the boundary temps low enough in my neck of the woods initially but it'll be close. Sunday into Monday will certainly be raw compared to what we have been experiencing. Perhaps I'll put the snow tires on this weekend. Definitely nice to have something on the horizon to track. In the meantime, these sunny days with light winds and temps near 60 are pretty fantastic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 15, 2016 Author Share Posted November 15, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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