AppsRunner Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 Both Lake Erie and Ontario are both well above average at this point. Ontario actually saw a bit of warming over the past week or so, and Erie's temps have leveled off. Per the graphs, this is warmer than any of the last 5 years, and at least by a degree or two. Can't see that changing in the next week or two with no real cold air getting involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 5, 2016 Author Share Posted November 5, 2016 2 hours ago, AppsRunner said: Both Lake Erie and Ontario are both well above average at this point. Ontario actually saw a bit of warming over the past week or so, and Erie's temps have leveled off. Per the graphs, this is warmer than any of the last 5 years, and at least by a degree or two. Can't see that changing in the next week or two with no real cold air getting involved. Yeah once the cold hits, both lakes will be at or near record temps. Could get interesting for sure. 23 hours ago, Buffalo Bumble said: This is a few days old, but a good read for those hoping for colder as we get closer to Thanksgiving: https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation. I personally like to see things a bit above normal and calm the first few weeks of November. Too many bad memories of 40 degree lake effect rain storms this time of year as we're usually just not quite cold enough for significant snow. Probably doesn't hurt to keep the thermometer turned up on the lakes too. I agree with you. Kind of difficult to get good LES until Late November across lower elevations. 18 hours ago, phoenixny said: Gotta believe the Western Great Lakes are or will be at record high temps by the end of the week. We are close here but recent cool temps have shaved a couple off. If so, that will help with whatever LES gets going later this month or early Dec. Yeah and the last 10 days of November so seem cold enough to get some flakes flying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 5, 2016 Author Share Posted November 5, 2016 I wouldn't be surprised if next weekend is our first lake effect event. Moisture doesn't look good, but NW flow I bet gives the Tug region and around Fulton/Oswego there first measureable snowfall. All 3 models have been showing it for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted November 6, 2016 Share Posted November 6, 2016 6 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: I wouldn't be surprised if next weekend is our first lake effect event. Moisture doesn't look good, but NW flow I bet gives the Tug region and around Fulton/Oswego there first measureable snowfall. All 3 models have been showing it for a few days. Lot of time to go but hoping for some nice streamers off the lakes. Trying to remember the year but there was a large lake effect outbreak for almost all of western and central New York in early to mid December where even places like Canandaigua and Ithaca picked up 6 to 12+ on a northwest flow. Buffalo NWS links to archived lake effect season not working. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 6, 2016 Author Share Posted November 6, 2016 30 minutes ago, phoenixny said: Lot of time to go but hoping for some nice streamers off the lakes. Trying to remember the year but there was a large lake effect outbreak for almost all of western and central New York in early to mid December where even places like Canandaigua and Ithaca picked up 6 to 12+ on a northwest flow. Buffalo NWS links to archived lake effect season not working. https://web.archive.org/web/20130222181131/http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/lakepage.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted November 6, 2016 Share Posted November 6, 2016 Thanks! Found what I was looking for. https://web.archive.org/web/20080706183446/http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/lakeffect/lake0708/b/stormsumb.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 6, 2016 Author Share Posted November 6, 2016 3 hours ago, phoenixny said: Thanks! Found what I was looking for. https://web.archive.org/web/20080706183446/http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/lakeffect/lake0708/b/stormsumb.html Np, there are so many events that I forget about. Next Saturday has a high of 38 with snow showers, looks to be first real wintery day in quite awhile. Saturday A chance of rain and snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 6, 2016 Share Posted November 6, 2016 4 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Np, there are so many events that I forget about. Next Saturday has a high of 38 with snow showers, looks to be first real wintery day in quite awhile. Saturday A chance of rain and snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 30%. It's early though, the earlier runs of the GFS (00z,06z,and 12z) all had 850mb temps getting to -12 or -13. 18z backed off those and now the latest 00z run really backed off showing minimum 850 temps next weekend at around -3 which is nothing impressive at all for this time of year, won't even support snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted November 6, 2016 Share Posted November 6, 2016 06z a little colder again at 850 mb, but still not as cold as it had looked yesterday. Watching this keenly, I am supposed to be at a cycling event at Allegany State Park next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted November 6, 2016 Share Posted November 6, 2016 First weenie storm of the season on the gfs lala land.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 6, 2016 Share Posted November 6, 2016 1 minute ago, ayuud11 said: First weenie storm of the season on the gfs lala land.. Snow all the way to southern Alabama before Turkey day lmao! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted November 6, 2016 Share Posted November 6, 2016 7 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Snow all the way to southern Alabama before Turkey day lmao! Those CFSV2 maps might have been on to something after all! they had us getting 12"+ by the first of week of Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 6, 2016 Share Posted November 6, 2016 App storm 1950 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 6, 2016 Share Posted November 6, 2016 2 hours ago, ayuud11 said: Those CFSV2 maps might have been on to something after all! they had us getting 12"+ by the first of week of Dec. Can you post them? That would be fantastic considering I didn't reach the 12" mark last year in Rhode Island until middle of February! Would be great to start off the season fast and furious! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 6, 2016 Author Share Posted November 6, 2016 2 hours ago, ayuud11 said: Those CFSV2 maps might have been on to something after all! they had us getting 12"+ by the first of week of Dec. Those maps are terrible IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 6, 2016 Author Share Posted November 6, 2016 6 hours ago, WesterlyWx said: It's early though, the earlier runs of the GFS (00z,06z,and 12z) all had 850mb temps getting to -12 or -13. 18z backed off those and now the latest 00z run really backed off showing minimum 850 temps next weekend at around -3 which is nothing impressive at all for this time of year, won't even support snow... Patience my friend, winter is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 6, 2016 Share Posted November 6, 2016 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Patience my friend, winter is coming. It would be great to have an earlier start to winter but I'm in no rush. Just ordered some new winter tires for my truck that won't be here for about a week or so. Once I have those on then I'm game on for snow, cause I'm itching to go on a chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 6, 2016 Author Share Posted November 6, 2016 17 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: It would be great to have an earlier start to winter but I'm in no rush. Just ordered some new winter tires for my truck that won't be here for about a week or so. Once I have those on then I'm game on for snow, cause I'm itching to go on a chase. Yeah Late Nov to January is my favorite time to get good winter conditions. It's just not the same in Feb and March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 6, 2016 Author Share Posted November 6, 2016 Can we lock this LES event in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Can we lock this LES event in? The mid to long range certainly does look to turn quite a bit colder and more wintry. Is that CFS Ayuud was talking about on to something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 7, 2016 Author Share Posted November 7, 2016 1 hour ago, WesterlyWx said: The mid to long range certainly does look to turn quite a bit colder and more wintry. Is that CFS Ayuud was talking about on to something? Theirs no real way to predict snowfall that far out. It's much easier to forecast long range indices, analogs, Strat Warmings, Nina/Nino, etc.. That all can be used to determine pattern transitions. But yes I'm starting to believe that late November we see winter show up. Will it be transient or stand firm is anyone's guess right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 Been enjoying the wonderful weather down in my neck of the woods recently, but with Mid November coming up, I think it's time to look at the pattern that should unfold mid-month and beyond. For now, there is a pretty resounding agreement that the time period of the 15th-18th will be something to watch as this looks like the time when the pattern breaks down and we go into a more favorable setup for persistent cold. The height anomalies along the west coast that have trended negative for the past month+ are going to start flipping positive as the Aleutian low breaks down and starts to retrograde. This will build the positive height field back into the west with greater potential for ridging west of the Mississippi and trough's east. The EPS and GEFS mean 500mb show a distinct trough axis cutting across the Lakes and diving into the Tennessee Valley at that aforementioned time period, leading to a better chance at a persistent NW flow over the Lakes. The source region for the cold will start out as more normal temps with 850mb anomalies still trending near normal by the time of the first shot. Now, that is saying something considering our well positive departure we've been experiencing and the norm for some areas of the Lakes would be cold enough to support snow in a favorable synoptic environment. The next part to analyze if the pattern does break down would be, how cold can it get? Judging by the synoptic setup in the LR, snow fall will increase across the northern tier of Canada where the source of the cold would reside and the pattern across the eastern half of the US would get gradually colder as a result. If those indications tell me anything, it tells me the pattern will become favorable for energy to swing down from Canada and ignite a few LES events on the NW steering flow. The Euro only goes out to D10 on the OP, but the end of the run shows a powerful LP cutting up into the Lakes around Detroit and advancing further to the NE if you extrapolate the surface reflection on it's last two frames. The GFS of course can go out further and it has a similar idea, but the cut is sharper to the west and the low slows to a crawl once north of Ontario. This would bring steady cold on the backside of the LP as NW flow regime takes over and crosses the Lakes. This type of setup would be the first for receiving any type of snow from Lake origin due to the cold push and steepening Delta T's that would come from such a shot of cold. There's still so much time between where things could change in terms of timing, but I firmly believe if we see a change, the time is between the 10-20 day stretch from now with the first real LES event shortly thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 I know it's off topic but did anyone see that Bills game tonight?! Wow did the refs screw them tonight. Hands down the worst officiating I have ever seen in any game ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 8, 2016 Author Share Posted November 8, 2016 25 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: I know it's off topic but did anyone see that Bills game tonight?! Wow did the refs screw them tonight. Hands down the worst officiating I have ever seen in any game ever. I've never been so mad watching a game in my entire life. http://www.buffalorumblings.com/2016/11/8/13560178/buffalo-bills-25-seattle-seahawks-31-referee-failure-looms-large Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 8, 2016 Author Share Posted November 8, 2016 10 hours ago, MillvilleWx said: Been enjoying the wonderful weather down in my neck of the woods recently, but with Mid November coming up, I think it's time to look at the pattern that should unfold mid-month and beyond. For now, there is a pretty resounding agreement that the time period of the 15th-18th will be something to watch as this looks like the time when the pattern breaks down and we go into a more favorable setup for persistent cold. The height anomalies along the west coast that have trended negative for the past month+ are going to start flipping positive as the Aleutian low breaks down and starts to retrograde. This will build the positive height field back into the west with greater potential for ridging west of the Mississippi and trough's east. The EPS and GEFS mean 500mb show a distinct trough axis cutting across the Lakes and diving into the Tennessee Valley at that aforementioned time period, leading to a better chance at a persistent NW flow over the Lakes. The source region for the cold will start out as more normal temps with 850mb anomalies still trending near normal by the time of the first shot. Now, that is saying something considering our well positive departure we've been experiencing and the norm for some areas of the Lakes would be cold enough to support snow in a favorable synoptic environment. The next part to analyze if the pattern does break down would be, how cold can it get? Judging by the synoptic setup in the LR, snow fall will increase across the northern tier of Canada where the source of the cold would reside and the pattern across the eastern half of the US would get gradually colder as a result. If those indications tell me anything, it tells me the pattern will become favorable for energy to swing down from Canada and ignite a few LES events on the NW steering flow. The Euro only goes out to D10 on the OP, but the end of the run shows a powerful LP cutting up into the Lakes around Detroit and advancing further to the NE if you extrapolate the surface reflection on it's last two frames. The GFS of course can go out further and it has a similar idea, but the cut is sharper to the west and the low slows to a crawl once north of Ontario. This would bring steady cold on the backside of the LP as NW flow regime takes over and crosses the Lakes. This type of setup would be the first for receiving any type of snow from Lake origin due to the cold push and steepening Delta T's that would come from such a shot of cold. There's still so much time between where things could change in terms of timing, but I firmly believe if we see a change, the time is between the 10-20 day stretch from now with the first real LES event shortly thereafter. Thanks for the info Scott! Great as always. I've noticed the last few days that model runs and ensembles have been pushing the colder air farther back into model range. I honestly think the pattern delay doesn't change much until the last week of November, if not early December. There is just no cold air/snow in Canada for the next 10 days at least. As you stated though that Aleutian low is the most important thing in almost all models show it weakening. There will definitely be a delay in the effects we get from the heights rising in the west and lowering in the East. We really need a source of cold air as the other side of the globe in Europe/Siberia is freezing with above normal snowfall. Russia has received record snowfall for November this year I believe. Eventually it has to come over on this side of the globe right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 8, 2016 Author Share Posted November 8, 2016 And there we have it. Carpenter made this FG before the clock runs off and adds 5 yards to the kick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 8, 2016 Author Share Posted November 8, 2016 Record snow in Russia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 9, 2016 Author Share Posted November 9, 2016 Can pretty much punt the next 2-3 weeks for any type of cold/snow. Pretty much all seasonal models are now showing a warmer than normal winter as well. All the cold is on the other side of the globe and this stubborn pattern does not look to be changing anytime soon. The Euro monthlies came out today and they joined the rest of the seasonal models in going warm for the Great Lakes and Northeast. I smell another bad winter incoming. Similar to how 11-12 and 12-13 were both terrible back to back winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted November 9, 2016 Share Posted November 9, 2016 18 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Record snow in Russia. Is that you walking around with your GoPro in Russia?? Impressive chase!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted November 9, 2016 Share Posted November 9, 2016 49 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Can pretty much punt the next 2-3 weeks for any type of cold/snow. Pretty much all seasonal models are now showing a warmer than normal winter as well. All the cold is on the other side of the globe and this stubborn pattern does not look to be changing anytime soon. The Euro monthlies came out today and they joined the rest of the seasonal models in going warm for the Great Lakes and Northeast. I smell another bad winter incoming. Similar to how 11-12 and 12-13 were both terrible back to back winters. It's real early, but I've been noticing that any type of cold in the longer range keeps getting pushed back or disappearing altogether. These ratters or even big winters (13-14, 14-15) do seem to hit back to back. We've had such a long run of warmth, it's hard to imagine a big reversal with consecutive below normal months. A step down to normal temps for DJFM might be best case, which would still give us a lot of snow chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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