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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Fall into Winter!


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14 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Opps lol this one has a higher probability for some snow at lower elevations I think. What are your thoughts on the upcoming winter?

I'm liking the prospects for winter around the lakes this year. I think the blocking setup and PV disruption will offer a better chance at cross polar flow to go along with the +PDO over the Pacific. Current ensemble guidance is leaning more toward a better ridge in the west, trough in the east type pattern for mid to late November, and that's when I believe the LES machine will begin to turn. Analogs have looked more favorable for blocking when diagnosing the long range prospects. I really wish I could post WxBell EPS, but the ensemble mean has nice look for the lakes with plenty of chances for lake effect to kick in. The one thing that stood out to me was the crazy height rises along the west coast for early December. That look has a classic deep mean trough across the Ohio Valley and Northeast with cold 850mb anomalies spilling across the region. If I had to go out and take a stab at best time to see LES this season, would lean on Late November through Mid December with the current look and could very well continue if the pattern holds through the end of the year. 

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14 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

b13ee97deca75a82e6a40a2c05c749c8.png


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Ya but that rain snow line is moving faster than Jay Ajayi running through the Bills defense. If we're lucky we might catch about 15-20 minutes worth of flakes up here between 12:30-2am before we switch to rain. I think by 3-4am all of WNY will be rain. Still for October any snow is good snow. 

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11 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

I'm liking the prospects for winter around the lakes this year. I think the blocking setup and PV disruption will offer a better chance at cross polar flow to go along with the +PDO over the Pacific. Current ensemble guidance is leaning more toward a better ridge in the west, trough in the east type pattern for mid to late November, and that's when I believe the LES machine will begin to turn. Analogs have looked more favorable for blocking when diagnosing the long range prospects. I really wish I could post WxBell EPS, but the ensemble mean has nice look for the lakes with plenty of chances for lake effect to kick in. The one thing that stood out to me was the crazy height rises along the west coast for early December. That look has a classic deep mean trough across the Ohio Valley and Northeast with cold 850mb anomalies spilling across the region. If I had to go out and take a stab at best time to see LES this season, would lean on Late November through Mid December with the current look and could very well continue if the pattern holds through the end of the year. 

Thanks for the feedback Scott! I am a little worried about the Alaska Low that has been so prevalent the last few months. At the end of the Ensembles as you already mentioned it tends to break down. The vortex needs to move west in order for it to deliver colder air into the Great Lakes. That vortex is what caused the winters of 11-13 to be so terrible, it didn't move those entire winters.

 

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40 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

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I was debating on getting a season pass this year, but every time I do I don't go enough to make up the price difference. It's to dependent on the weather and I only enjoy going in optimal conditions. Hopefully the season gets off to a quick start.

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First official flakes of the season here. Nice big fat flakes. Not coming down very hard but a light to moderate snow on October 27th is never anything to complain about. We'll see if it lasts long enough to coat the cars/roofs/grass before the changeover to rain happens. Currently sitting at 35F which is down 2F from just a half an hour ago (which I'm sure has to do with the precip moving in). Hopefully this just marks the beginning to a nice above average season for all of Upstate. Now I can't wait for the lake effect machine to get cranking and our first warning of the season. Maybe this year it can be before Turkey day which would be worlds different than last year when I don't think Buffalo saw it's first 1.0" snowfall until the very end of December IIRC. Regardless of what happens this season it's almost garunteed to be better than last year and with the latest long term models, we should be feeling pretty good about what's to come. 

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8 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

First official flakes of the season here. Nice big fat flakes. Not coming down very hard but a light to moderate snow on October 27th is never anything to complain about. We'll see if it lasts long enough to coat the cars/roofs/grass before the changeover to rain happens. Currently sitting at 35F which is down 2F from just a half an hour ago (which I'm sure has to do with the precip moving in). Hopefully this just marks the beginning to a nice above average season for all of Upstate. Now I can't wait for the lake effect machine to get cranking and our first warning of the season. Maybe this year it can be before Turkey day which would be worlds different than last year when I don't think Buffalo saw it's first 1.0" snowfall until the very end of December IIRC. Regardless of what happens this season it's almost garunteed to be better than last year and with the latest long term models, we should be feeling pretty good about what's to come. 

As long as that vortex scoots we will be good. The next 2 weeks of model runs are going to give us a much better picture of how Late Nov to Dec are going to be. Nearly every one of my favorite Lake Snow events happen in the next 2 months, so hopefully we get some good long range model looks.

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Just took another peak outside and the snow is coming down more towards the moderate side. To my surprise it's already coated the cars, grass, and even the edges of the sidewalk in front of the house. Temperature is still above freezing but has slipped another degree down to 34 with a DP of 30. Horrible picture from the upstairs bedroom window but you can see the coating on the car already.

 

481B310B-5117-4207-A4C1-1759F6782AA7.jpg

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4 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

Just took another peak outside and the snow is coming down more towards the moderate side. To my surprise it's already coated the cars, grass, and even the edges of the sidewalk in front of the house. Temperature is still above freezing but has slipped another degree down to 34 with a DP of 30. Horrible picture from the upstairs bedroom window but you can see the coating on the car already.

Nice man! No flakes here just rain. Near the airport on the cams you can see a blanket of white. Definitely going to go down with at least a trace at KBUF.

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34 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Nice man! No flakes here just rain. Near the airport on the cams you can see a blanket of white. Definitely going to go down with at least a trace at KBUF.

Now down to 33F/ 31DP but the snow has began to mix with rain. It was fun while it lasted. I'm sure when I wake up in a few hours the temp will have sky rocketed to 40F. 

Edit to add: as of 1:46am I am down to 32F with a the DP holding at 31F. Even though the temp is down to freezing I think the roads are far too warm to support any freezing rain. Don't recall any forecast getting lower than 35F here tonight. 

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Rochester with almost an 1" last night.

...ALLEGANY COUNTY...
   ALFRED                 0.2   700 AM 10/27  COOP OBSERVER

...GENESEE COUNTY...
   2 NE STAFFORD          0.6   700 AM 10/27  COCORAHS

...LIVINGSTON COUNTY...
   AVON                   1.0   800 AM 10/27  COOP OBSERVER

...MONROE COUNTY...
   BROCKPORT              1.0   900 AM 10/27  COOP OBSERVER
   ROCHESTER AIRPORT      0.9   800 AM 10/27  COOP OBSERVER
   3 W WEBSTER            0.5   815 AM 10/27  COCORAHS
   5 W ROCHESTER          0.3   800 AM 10/27  COCORAHS
   4 SSE PITTSFORD        0.3   800 AM 10/27  COCORAHS

...NIAGARA COUNTY...
   NIAGARA FALLS AIRPOR   0.4   700 AM 10/27  COOP OBSERVER

...ONTARIO COUNTY...
   3 W GENEVA             1.1   700 AM 10/27  COOP OBSERVER
   3 SW STANLEY           1.0   700 AM 10/27  COCORAHS

...ORLEANS COUNTY...
   MEDINA                 0.6   600 AM 10/27  COOP OBSERVER

...OSWEGO COUNTY...
   FULTON                 0.2   700 AM 10/27  COOP OBSERVER
   SE MINETTO             0.1   730 AM 10/27  COCORAHS

...WAYNE COUNTY...
   2 SW WALWORTH          1.1   700 AM 10/27  COCORAHS
   2 NE MARION            1.0   712 AM 10/27  COCORAHS
   2 NW PALMYRA           0.8   845 AM 10/27  COCORAHS
   3 ESE MACEDON          0.5   615 AM 10/27  COCORAHS

...WYOMING COUNTY...
   3 W WYOMING            1.4   700 AM 10/27  COOP OBSERVER
   3 N SILVER SPRINGS     1.1   700 AM 10/27  COOP OBSERVER
   6 SW WARSAW            1.0   700 AM 10/27  COOP OBSERVER
...ALLEGANY COUNTY...
   ALFRED                 0.2   700 AM 10/27  COOP OBSERVER

...GENESEE COUNTY...
   2 NE STAFFORD          0.6   700 AM 10/27  COCORAHS

...LIVINGSTON COUNTY...
   AVON                   1.0   800 AM 10/27  COOP OBSERVER

...MONROE COUNTY...
   BROCKPORT              1.0   900 AM 10/27  COOP OBSERVER
   ROCHESTER AIRPORT      0.9   800 AM 10/27  COOP OBSERVER
   3 W WEBSTER            0.5   815 AM 10/27  COCORAHS
   5 W ROCHESTER          0.3   800 AM 10/27  COCORAHS
   4 SSE PITTSFORD        0.3   800 AM 10/27  COCORAHS

...NIAGARA COUNTY...
   NIAGARA FALLS AIRPOR   0.4   700 AM 10/27  COOP OBSERVER

...ONTARIO COUNTY...
   3 W GENEVA             1.1   700 AM 10/27  COOP OBSERVER
   3 SW STANLEY           1.0   700 AM 10/27  COCORAHS

...ORLEANS COUNTY...
   MEDINA                 0.6   600 AM 10/27  COOP OBSERVER

...OSWEGO COUNTY...
   FULTON                 0.2   700 AM 10/27  COOP OBSERVER
   SE MINETTO             0.1   730 AM 10/27  COCORAHS

...WAYNE COUNTY...
   2 SW WALWORTH          1.1   700 AM 10/27  COCORAHS
   2 NE MARION            1.0   712 AM 10/27  COCORAHS
   2 NW PALMYRA           0.8   845 AM 10/27  COCORAHS
   3 ESE MACEDON          0.5   615 AM 10/27  COCORAHS

...WYOMING COUNTY...
   3 W WYOMING            1.4   700 AM 10/27  COOP OBSERVER
   3 N SILVER SPRINGS     1.1   700 AM 10/27  COOP OBSERVER
   6 SW WARSAW            1.0   700 AM 10/27  COOP OBSERVER

 

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What a picture perfect first day of November! I am a bit concerned with the fact we have yet to frost within the city. Id say a good 90% of the trees are still deep green and near full leaf. You can see the contrast driving out through the burbs as the trees are at least peaking and dropping. Usually by this time I'm putting out 3 or 4 leaf bags a week but this year I still haven't filled one yet.
4a8399d56380fcacfce442421fe5ca29.jpg


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On 11/1/2016 at 11:44 AM, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

What a picture perfect first day of November! I am a bit concerned with the fact we have yet to frost within the city. Id say a good 90% of the trees are still deep green and near full leaf. You can see the contrast driving out through the burbs as the trees are at least peaking and dropping. Usually by this time I'm putting out 3 or 4 leaf bags a week but this year I still haven't filled one yet.
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We just got our first hard freeze in the ROC this morning.  The birdbath had thick ice on it.  I'm expecting the leaves to finally start making moves but it's pretty much the latest I've ever seen it.  

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5 minutes ago, vortmax said:

White Thanksgiving? Thinking the pattern will be changing right around then.

Sure hope so, this warm weather is really quite concerning. 73F on November 1st is just mind boggiling. Hard to believe in 2 weeks it'll be the two year annaversary of Snowvember. Hard to imagine 7 feet of snow falling 2 weeks from now, or any snow for that matter with how warm it had been. 

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This is a few days old, but a good read for those hoping for colder as we get closer to Thanksgiving: https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation.  

I personally like to see things a bit above normal and calm the first few weeks of November.  Too many bad memories of 40 degree lake effect rain storms this time of year as we're usually just not quite cold enough for significant snow.  Probably doesn't hurt to keep the thermometer turned up on the lakes too.  

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Gotta believe the Western Great Lakes are or will be at record high temps by the end of the week. We are close here but recent cool temps have shaved a couple off. If so, that will help with whatever LES gets going later this month or early Dec.

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