tim123 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Once sun sets boom on that band in roc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 3" per hour Panama and Sherman New York. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 If that band, just to the East of KROC, starts to crank on a WNW flow at it is now then things can get quite interesting quickly here just North of Syracuse! Watching that band inch closer and closer so it may not be a complete bust after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Good call Delta as there is no connection to GB but rather from LK Huron! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 its still fractured and doesn't want to seem to get its act together but of course its fighting some very dry air as well as a bit of shear which is quite evident. Maybe that'll change, but I don't see KBGM's 6-8" total for us is going to verify but I guess we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Is the NWS expecting a big change later on this evening because its not looking to good right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 It's way out there but I'd keep an eye on late next week for LES outbreak for areas East and Northeast of the lakes, both the GFS and GEM look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Not the most beautiful thing but synoptic moisture and nocturnal stability are indeed helping it out. Any time you have 30dbz returns you are doing good. It'll be a fun night to watch it play out. For once its not a weeknight. To note, I still havent even gotten a full dusting since this morning. I'd really like to add on at least 3 inches to the ~2 I currently have. We have winter kickball tomorrow and its always nice to play in the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 14 minutes ago, ayuud11 said: It's way out there but I'd keep an eye on late next week for LES outbreak for areas East and Northeast of the lakes, both the GFS and GEM look good. To my eyes, the 18z GFS from day 7 to 9 looks like more of the same: WNW and NW flow. Verbatim it looks great for the same jackpot zones and terrible for the metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Delta, it looks like your getting in on some of the good returns. Hope you get plastered tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 45 minutes ago, WNash said: To my eyes, the 18z GFS from day 7 to 9 looks like more of the same: WNW and NW flow. Verbatim it looks great for the same jackpot zones and terrible for the metro. I was looking at the BUFKIT data and it had winds fluctuating between 260-250 at that time-frame with moderate to extreme lake instability, it's been showing up for couple of runs now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 I absolutely hate LES because you never get what you expect and when you least expect it you get pummeled. totally unpredictable even in 2016. Wgat in God;s name did they do during the 70-80's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 7 minutes ago, ayuud11 said: I was looking at the BUFKIT data and it had winds fluctuating between 260-250 at that time-frame with moderate to extreme lake instability, it's been showing up for couple of runs now.. Both offices did horrendous during this event and its always the same story. I gotta admit, KBGM did a much better job than KBUF wrt toitals and that's odd since their focus is primarily mesoscale and not synoptic events. Since Tom Niziol went to TWC KBUF went down the tubes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Cant wait for a synoptic event so you know at least your gonna get something for sure., It may not be in feet, but at least we know whats likely to fall, will fall with a synoptic event. Bring on Sunday and Monday, at least we know were definitely gonna get a plowable snowfall. So sick of wishing for a band to stay overhead for more than a couple hours which is usually what happens unless its similar to last weeks event with spokes of energy reinvigorating the existing spray of moderate to heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 One other thing I'm sick of. There could be a 35dbz echo right over your crib, and it's not even snowing, lol, so you cant even take the radar at face value during LES events. Just hope in the near future something changes, wrt predicting LES storms, even though we've made leaps and bounds with forecasting such events but a lot of work still needs to be done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 31 minutes ago, ayuud11 said: I was looking at the BUFKIT data and it had winds fluctuating between 260-250 at that time-frame with moderate to extreme lake instability, it's been showing up for couple of runs now.. Ok - I trust your look at BUFKIT data more than my glance at 500 and 850 maps. The frustration is wearing me out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 30 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: I absolutely hate LES because you never get what you expect and when you least expect it you get pummeled. totally unpredictable even in 2016. Wgat in God;s name did they do during the 70-80's? 4 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: One other thing I'm sick of. There could be a 35dbz echo right over your crib, and it's not even snowing, lol, so you cant even take the radar at face value during LES events. Just hope in the near future something changes, wrt predicting LES storms, even though we've made leaps and bounds with forecasting such events but a lot of work still needs to be done. If only our lovely govt spent more money on the hardware infrastructure maybe just maybe we won't be dealing with this issues lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 1 hour ago, ayuud11 said: It's way out there but I'd keep an eye on late next week for LES outbreak for areas East and Northeast of the lakes, both the GFS and GEM look good. Not trying to be a dick or anything but they cant pinpoint totals or wind direction 48hrs prior to an event, do you really think the models will be anywhere near correct 6-7 days out? just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 I think winds look W/NW in next weeks event as well but there is a better chance of a possible WSW wind in next weeks vs this week. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=kbuf Also ran it through BUFKIT the highest the wind direction gets is 255/260, maintains 270 flow which would be distant southtowns/ski country absolute pounding. That cold next week means business, really hope we can get those winds more SW in the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 12 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Not trying to be a dick or anything but they cant pinpoint totals or wind direction 48hrs prior to an event, do you really think the models will be anywhere near correct 6-7 days out? just saying. I think you can get a good idea on wind directions 2/3 days out. Most shortwaves can be pinpointed in that timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 Thinking about starting a new thread as we enter some of the coldest weather of the year? Also a synoptic system Sunday and possibly another a few days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Thinking about starting a new thread as we enter some of the coldest weather of the year? Also a synoptic system Sunday and possibly another a few days later. I'd be happy to see the end of this thread, which has brought nothing but sunshine during LES events to Buffalo. Let's hope for better luck in the next thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Ended up with 3.4" down here at KBGM as of this morning which seems to be near the top of the leader board in CNY somehow (again). KSYR has won the golden snowball race every year since 2002-03. Might get a run for their money this year perhaps, but long way to go. Looks like a widespread advisory-level synoptic event may be on tap for most of the forum sunday night into monday. Details TBD at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 13 minutes ago, WNash said: I'd be happy to see the end of this thread, which has brought nothing but sunshine during LES events to Buffalo. Let's hope for better luck in the next thread! All done, hopefully it will bring us some luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: I think you can get a good idea on wind directions 2/3 days out. Most shortwaves can be pinpointed in that timeframe. I 100% disagree but that's OK! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Picked up about 2" today IMBY. There's no way we approach KBUF type totals. Not sure what they are thinking but they really need to put down the crack pipe, at least as far as Lake Ontario snows are concerned. Snows diminishing now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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