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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Fall into Winter!


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I'm very skeptical of the band firing up the way some of you think it will and some of the Meso models indicate it will.  Those forecast maps are straight fantasyland at this point.  The fact that the NWS doubles down and upgrades Monroe to a warning is mind boggling. I really hope I'm wrong here but I don't think we get more than 3 inches from this event.  The lake is dead right now with abundant dry air.  When the marginally more moist air arrives this afternoon, winds are too westerly and too weak to really hook up a GB connection.  This event is already more or less over IMO opinion.  

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7 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Understand your point but just puttin 2 and 2 together and looks legit. Already can see western part of lake starting to slowy fire up

I've been wrong many times and hopefully will again, I just feel like I've seen similar scenarios with a far better setup yield much less snow than the current forecast.  Things better get cranking in a hurry if they hope to even verify a single forecast for Monroe.  

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2 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

I've been wrong many times and hopefully will again, I just feel like I've seen similar scenarios with a far better setup yield much less snow than the current forecast.  Things better get cranking in a hurry if they hope to even verify a single forecast for Monroe.  

I know what your saying. Very difficult to predict the south shore. 

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38 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

How far is Cassadaga form Buffalo cause that type of gradient is just sick, lol

 

The closest distance between the 36-48 and the 1-2 areas is 31.5 miles.

Of course that's a shallow gradient compared to Nov 2014, where my in-laws had more than 70 inches in Gardenville, West Seneca and we had maybe three or four in Parkside, just 7.75 miles away.

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4 minutes ago, WNash said:

 

The closest distance between the 36-48 and the 1-2 areas is 31.5 miles.

Of course that's a shallow gradient compared to Nov 2014, where my in-laws had more than 70 inches in Gardenville, West Seneca and we had maybe three or four in Parkside, just 7.75 miles away.

incredible!

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Just now, DeltaT13 said:

I think there was a 40 inch gradient over 1 mile during the November '14 storm if that kind of thing blows your mind.    BuffaloWeather might have a specific number and location from that event.  

Honestly, to me, that is as amazing as chasing the heaviest returns. It's incredible to drive from bright sunshine into what is basically a wall of snow, or to go from bare grass to feet of snow in a five minute drive.

The crappy part is when there is a extended bad run of luck, and where you live ends up on the wrong side of the line for every event going back for years.

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50 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

I'm very skeptical of the band firing up the way some of you think it will and some of the Meso models indicate it will.  Those forecast maps are straight fantasyland at this point.  The fact that the NWS doubles down and upgrades Monroe to a warning is mind boggling. I really hope I'm wrong here but I don't think we get more than 3 inches from this event.  The lake is dead right now with abundant dry air.  When the marginally more moist air arrives this afternoon, winds are too westerly and too weak to really hook up a GB connection.  This event is already more or less over IMO opinion.  

For the record, I do NOT see big totals for Monroe. It's not a bad setup. We do best with lighter winds. Some of my bigger totals have been with drier air and tea kettle stuff. Streamers are for the east ends. 

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12 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

I think there was a 40 inch gradient over 1 mile during the November '14 storm if that kind of thing blows your mind.    BuffaloWeather might have a specific number and location from that event.  

Yeah there is a picture showing 60 inches and 2 inches 3 miles apart I think it was in southern cheektowaga vs central cheektowaga. I'll find it later.

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