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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Fall into Winter!


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17 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

 Binghamton’s snow totals for the 2016-2017 snow season up to 32.9 inches so far, last year they had 30" total. Crazy!!!

Yeah, BGM has found itself in the crosshairs of some of the larger events thus far in the early going. Taken from the golden snowball site, BGM has the early lead, though might be short-lived if SYR airport cashes in on some decent LES in the coming days...

GSB Cities The 2016 - 2017 Snow Season Normal Average to Date This Time 
Last Season
Normal Seasons Average All Time Season 
Snowfall Record

Binghamton 33.9 9.7 1.1 83.4 134.0 inches (1995 - 1996)
Syracuse 26.5 15.4 0.8 123.8 192.1 inches (1992 - 1993)
Rochester 16.9 10.8 1.2 99.5 161.7 inches (1959 - 1960)
Albany 3.7 5.1 Trace 59.1 112.5 inches (1970 - 1971)
Buffalo 1.2 12.6 Trace 94.7 199.4 inches (1976 - 1977)
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1 hour ago, WNash said:


Yeah where are all of our Jamestown to Ellicottville to Springville folks, where there actually will be snow.

I mean, I can only get so excited about the 100th identical chase video from the 219 in Cattaraugus County.

Hey now, my video is going to be great on Friday. ^_^

You would be more excited if you came with us. 

The storm system to follow will bring some accumulating snow to all and even some lake enhanced snow across the Metro. The pattern looks good for consistent cold/snow IMO.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_18.png

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Hey now, my video is going to be great on Friday.

You would be more excited if you came with us. 

The storm system to follow will bring some accumulating snow to all and even some lake enhanced snow across the Metro. The pattern looks good for consistent cold/snow IMO.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_18.png&key=73077f900c02e112b668f314196467bf7d073806205b63f7b2c0715f4e6fa0b3



Snow chances look pretty good for the game Sunday.


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17 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

680a241266f9483f76856f3b4dbe92e0.png


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lol relax you guys are forgetting its only Dec 7th plenty of winter to go.

 

45 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

 


Snow chances look pretty good for the game Sunday.


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Winds are literally SW to WSW From Mon to late Tuesday on the 18z GFS lol.

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Not sure what to think about this one from a Syracuse area standpoint. KBGM currently thinking the band that sets up to our north Thursday will sink further south than previously thought. If that happens we may see the ol' broom effect where a few inches of snow fall during the band passage (which happens slower than forecasted, resulting in higher snowfall for Oswego county), and then the whole thing slides south and falls off the south end of the lake and we transition to more of a NW multiband flow with maybe one stronger embedded band that jackpots the hills south of Syracuse due to extra lift, on 310 flow.  We've seen this nonsense before.  Another few model runs may pin this scenario down.  Right now they have. 6-8" forecast for my backyard in extreme no. Onondaga cty., which over a day and a half might only be advisory level snow. KBUF, as usual, more aggressive with forecast accums just to my north (8-12").  So I suppose if I aggregate and interpolate, about 8" would be a reasonable forecast here at this point.  Not horrible.   And then snow -> rain for Mon/Tues is the Euro is right Yay! oO

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4 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

New totals from BUF. Huge drops in accumulations from this morning!

9:00pm
ca1a30cf277fa00b785cc8405caf12e7.png

6:00am
aee862711b87805671a0db72244f0c34.png


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Take Eden for example, how does your forecast go from 18-24" down to 4-6" in the matter of 12 hours??? I agree it will be much closer to the 4-6" range anyways but I just want to know why BUF always starts out so high only to adjust the numbers down by upwards of 200%. Very disappointed in the way BUF does these maps and their forecast. No one is perfect and I don't expect them to be but the way they consistently make every lake storm seem like a 5 star event 2 days before only to drop it down to a 1-2 star event is really frustrating. 

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1 hour ago, WesterlyWx said:

Take Eden for example, how does your forecast go from 18-24" down to 4-6" in the matter of 12 hours??? I agree it will be much closer to the 4-6" range anyways but I just want to know why BUF always starts out so high only to adjust the numbers down by upwards of 200%. Very disappointed in the way BUF does these maps and their forecast. No one is perfect and I don't expect them to be but the way they consistently make every lake storm seem like a 5 star event 2 days before only to drop it down to a 1-2 star event is really frustrating. 

Reed Timmer is setting up shop near Jamestown. Going to head down there Friday.

 

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Confidently feel that BUF is way too conservative across No. Oswego/S. Jefferson counties. Soundings look generally similar from before albeit a little more tame (EL's near 17-20kft), but generally a sustained 275 flow for more than 10 hours would be sufficient to produce more than 8-12" for a place like Pulaski. 

 

Is there a way to summon LakeEffectKing? 

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28 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/RadarLoop/cad_None_anim.gif

 Even the BTV WRF which usually goes bat$h!t only has 0.1" QPF in the Southtowns with a max of only about 1.25" on the Chautauqua Ridge and Tug Hill. I smell a large bust coming. Guess it wouldn't be a bust if NWS didn't call for widespread 2'+ in their forecast this morning. 

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Not really liking this event nearly as much as the last event here in Liverpool.  picked up 25" last event and we'll be lucky to see a 3rd of that.  NWS is all over the place as usual. Synoptic moisture is seriously lacking throughout this event unlike the last one where we had deep moisture to feed off of. There's not upstream connection, at this point anyway but that can change. Definitely sufficient cold air, not a good fetch, cap lowers to 5k by Friday 12Z and there appears to be some shear within the BL as well which doesn't help the situation.  If we miraculously attain some kind of connection with GB then we may have some fun in CNY otherwise I'd be cautious about this one.

Right now I'm lookin at about 6-8" total for a 48hr period starting 06Z Friday and lasting through the day Saturday, however in a weakening state. I'm hard pressed to even call this an event unless some drastic changes occur between now and Friday, which can very well happen. KBGM had 18-24 yesterday, today 8-12 so go figure.  Modelology 101, lol!

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19 minutes ago, southbuffalowx said:

So what exactly is going on thermodynamically that is so greatly preventing the formation of lake effect right now? The NWS mentioned a cap earlier, but how could I get a better understanding of the mechanics behind this? 

Quite a bit of shear in the boundary layer as well so winds are really not lined up, as one would like to see.  Also, like you said, theres a cap right now that's squashing any type of clouds from reaching to high into the atmosphere.  Temps are just starting to drop but its not a shot like last week, its more of a gradual cooling from the top down. There's just so much against us right now, whether your in KBUF or KSYR, as were in the same boat.

If conditions were right, KBUF would be getting Thundersnow right now with the fetch across the whole length of Lake Erie. Ya win some and you lose most, lol!

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33 minutes ago, southbuffalowx said:

So what exactly is going on thermodynamically that is so greatly preventing the formation of lake effect right now? The NWS mentioned a cap earlier, but how could I get a better understanding of the mechanics behind this? 

Dry air. Atmosphere is just to dry for good lake effect right now and temps aloft are marginal at best. By daybreak synoptic moisture increases and depth of cold air will increase. The best band IMO will be tomorrow late morning into afternoon hours.

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7 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

If conditions were right, KBUF would be getting Thundersnow right now with the fetch across the whole length of Lake Erie. Ya win some and you lose most, lol!

It kills me knowing how close we are to getting a good snowstorm right now, but I guess the uncertainty is part of the magic of lake effect. 

On another disappointing note, the 0z gfs brings a rainstorm prior to the cold shot later next week. Who knows what to expect next week, hopefully it stays interesting and doesn't fizzle away like this event seemingly is.

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2 minutes ago, southbuffalowx said:

It kills me knowing how close we are to getting a good snowstorm right now, but I guess the uncertainty is part of the magic of lake effect. 

On another disappointing note, the 0z gfs brings a rainstorm prior to the cold shot later next week. Who knows what to expect next week, hopefully it stays interesting and doesn't fizzle away like this event seemingly is.

I wouldn't trust the GFS in that timeframe right now, models have been terrible and the ensembles are all over. It goes from huge amplified snowstorm for the midwest, to progressive wave that slides off hundreds of miles southeast of here.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_18z/f126.gif

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3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I wouldn't trust the GFS in that timeframe right now, models have been terrible and the ensembles are all over. It goes from huge amplified snowstorm for the midwest, to progressive wave that slides off hundreds of miles southeast of here.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_18z/f126.gif

yeah their all over the place.  Id be looking at Sun-Mondays event before next weeks.

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