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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Fall into Winter!


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3 hours ago, WesterlyWx said:

https://web.archive.org/web/20141210092801/http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/lakeffect/08-09.html

 

what I would do for a repeat of 08-09. 5 events in a 3 week period of November. I remember ski country getting pounded wishing I had a vehicle to chase down there. If I remember correctly Holiday Valley was open before Thanksgiving on all natural snow. Just thinking about that right now seems absolutely absurd! 

What I would do for a 2014 Nov Repeat... The best few week period in Buffalo and Metro aside from Dec 2001 was 98-99. I remember it so vividly because my parents decided to move in the middle of winter from the West Side to Cheektowaga. We had to shovel the huge driveway every day for weeks. Just constant snow. Was not used to shoveling such a huge driveway since we didn't have one in the city. These are just lake effect events, there was plenty of Synoptic stuff as well. That January had 65.1" of snow at KBUF. One of the more underrated time periods. I believe West Seneca had the most in this 3 week stretch. 80"+

https://web.archive.org/web/20041109171617/http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/buf/lakeffect/stormc.gif

https://web.archive.org/web/20041109171427/http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/buf/lakeffect/stormd.gifhttps://web.archive.org/web/20041109170458/http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/buf/lakeffect/storme.gif

https://web.archive.org/web/20041109170336/http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/buf/lakeffect/stormf.gif

https://web.archive.org/web/20041109170955/http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/buf/lakeffect/stormg.gif

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11 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Wow! Now that's the kind of event I like to see. After yesterday I'm pumped for winter.

Yeah after last years winter, I am usually ready for it starting Nov 1st. Nice having a new face on this sub-forum, I believe its the deadest in all of American. Hopefully we will have lots to talk about in the next few months and you should definitely come chasing if a big event arises.

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00-01 was also a pretty solid start. 3 12" plus storms in a 3 week span for the metro.

497746ab87e4dc4de566c37aca53f002.jpg
e889afd2ef2dd538534b7f881ee4b430.jpg
7ad2a713b75517a7ef62264153123502.jpg

That late 90s early 2000s was such a prime period for some good lake storms for the metro and north towns. They are way overdue for a good dumping. The past few years all the action has been Hamburg to South Buffalo.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

00-01 was also a pretty solid start. 3 12" plus storms in a 3 week span for the metro.

497746ab87e4dc4de566c37aca53f002.jpg
e889afd2ef2dd538534b7f881ee4b430.jpg
7ad2a713b75517a7ef62264153123502.jpg

That late 90s early 2000s was such a prime period for some good lake storms for the metro and north towns. They are way overdue for a good dumping. The past few years all the action has been Hamburg to South Buffalo.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

Yeah there were some awesome time periods in those years.

  • Jan 99: 65.1"
  • Nov 00: 45.6"
  • Dec 00: 50.3"
  • Dec 01: 82.7"

 

 

 

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Some nice totals for upstate during the last event. Found these on the BTV PNS report. 

 

NEW YORK

...CLINTON COUNTY...
   DANNEMORA              2.0   757 AM 10/23  BROADCAST MEDIA
   PERU                   2.0   921 AM 10/23  PUBLIC

...FRANKLIN COUNTY...
   1 W ST. REGIS FALLS    7.0   804 AM 10/23  BROADCAST MEDIA
   7 SW MALONE            6.0   549 AM 10/23  1370 FEET ELEVATION
   5 S WEST BANGOR        6.0   548 AM 10/23  BROADCAST MEDIA
   FRANKLIN FALLS         5.0   732 AM 10/23  PUBLIC
   CHATEAUGAY             5.0   736 AM 10/23  BROADCAST MEDIA
   ST. REGIS              3.0   910 AM 10/23  PUBLIC
   GABRIELS               3.0   820 AM 10/23  PUBLIC
   TUPPER LAKE            2.0   904 AM 10/23  PUBLIC
   BURKE                  1.5   812 AM 10/23  BROADCAST MEDIA

 

I guess my 6-10" call held weight. Woot lol ^_^ 

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Looks like our 1st legit shot at some flakes Wed night/Thursday morning..

 

A chance of rain and snow showers after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Thursday
Rain and snow showers likely, becoming all rain after 9am. Cloudy, with a high near 46. Chance of precipitation is 70%

Screenshot_2016-10-24-08-08-55.png

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9 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

00-01 was also a pretty solid start. 3 12" plus storms in a 3 week span for the metro.

497746ab87e4dc4de566c37aca53f002.jpg
e889afd2ef2dd538534b7f881ee4b430.jpg
7ad2a713b75517a7ef62264153123502.jpg

That late 90s early 2000s was such a prime period for some good lake storms for the metro and north towns. They are way overdue for a good dumping. The past few years all the action has been Hamburg to South Buffalo.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

:wub:

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HI all ,I moved west of albany near Howe Caverns, I believe I am on the right board for my snowfall maps and chats ,correct? Was previously on hudson valley board,but also like to vist new  englands as well ,so who would be close to my area board wise for an impending storm coming,,penn seem far away vermont as well buffalo also,I am more west of albany ( not adirondacts) the normallly jackpot more ...any sugestions on where I fit i ..lol.thanks for your upcomming jokes! And love tracking storms...Bigfoot

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2 hours ago, Bigfoot said:

HI all ,I moved west of albany near Howe Caverns, I believe I am on the right board for my snowfall maps and chats ,correct? Was previously on hudson valley board,but also like to vist new  englands as well ,so who would be close to my area board wise for an impending storm coming,,penn seem far away vermont as well buffalo also,I am more west of albany ( not adirondacts) the normallly jackpot more ...any sugestions on where I fit i ..lol.thanks for your upcomming jokes! And love tracking storms...Bigfoot

Hello and welcome Bigfoot.

I'm west of you in Otsego County.  You're on the right board.  It should be great fun this winter.

 

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PV split looks likely. The abnormally strong PV that was in place all year last winter was unable to drop any really cold air into the lower 48. The pattern looks to change quite a bit from Nov. 10th onward for the last 2 weeks of November. Usually takes 2-3 weeks after a PV split to see any effects in our area.

 

ecmwf10f120-12z-10-22.gif

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5 hours ago, Bigfoot said:

HI all ,I moved west of albany near Howe Caverns, I believe I am on the right board for my snowfall maps and chats ,correct? Was previously on hudson valley board,but also like to vist new  englands as well ,so who would be close to my area board wise for an impending storm coming,,penn seem far away vermont as well buffalo also,I am more west of albany ( not adirondacts) the normallly jackpot more ...any sugestions on where I fit i ..lol.thanks for your upcomming jokes! And love tracking storms...Bigfoot

Welcome! Yeah there are quite a bit more posters in the eastern sections of NY in this forum than the west.

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6 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

Looks like our 1st legit shot at some flakes Wed night/Thursday morning..

 

A chance of rain and snow showers after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Thursday
Rain and snow showers likely, becoming all rain after 9am. Cloudy, with a high near 46. Chance of precipitation is 70%

Screenshot_2016-10-24-08-08-55.png

Yeah, I think you definitely get some flakes this week.

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1 hour ago, AppsRunner said:

The PV split is intriguing... we'll see what happens in the troposphere over the next couple weeks but certainly a significant stratospheric vortex split. Past events suggest that the second half of November (or early December) should be exciting around here

Yeah Euro weeklies showed this too, don't think we're allowed to post them here though. Last 2 weeks of November look good.

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4 hours ago, AppsRunner said:

The PV split is intriguing... we'll see what happens in the troposphere over the next couple weeks but certainly a significant stratospheric vortex split. Past events suggest that the second half of November (or early December) should be exciting around here

Euro Weeklies for 2 straight runs look amazing.

Looks great from mid NOV through mid DEC

-EPO, -AO, -NAO

All 3 of these would favor troughing in the East.

http://static1.squarespace.com/static/522d4defe4b0a015e8d6c6a5/t/54b9086ae4b05e2e7fc48bc1/1421412465875/?format=1000w

http://www.daculaweather.com/images/ao.png

http://www.weatherworksinc.com/sites/default/files/negativeNAO.jpg

 

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16 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Ayuud is back! Winter can start. Me you and Devin have to go on a chase this year.

Hey man been busy working so i haven't been paying that much attention to the weather, it looks like things will change soon come 3rd week of Nov, i just hope we get a decent setup of LES that everyone can cash in nicely.:D

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At the very least we add to our impressive Oct rainfall, over 7" so far this month..

 

Wednesday Night
A slight chance of rain and snow between 3am and 4am, then snow likely. Increasing clouds, with a low around 35. Northeast wind 5 to 8 mph becoming southeast after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Thursday
Rain and snow, becoming all rain after 10am. High near 41. Southeast wind 15 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.
Thursday Night
Rain likely before 10pm, then showers likely after 10pm. Cloudy, with a low around 39. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible
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On 10/22/2016 at 11:24 AM, MillvilleWx said:

Northern Daks look to be the place to be in this setup. Jet couplet combined with a closed 500mb low over the NE will provide some decent dynamics to enhance the precip field in that area. Tey also get the benefit of seeing the longest lasting precip due to latitude. The higher elevations around 2500-3000'+ will probably cash 6-10" in this setup. Look at WV and see the small fire hose aimed at Upstate right now. With the anticipated CAA on the backside of the low, snowfall elevations should fall through the day with gradually increasing snow ratios in the higher terrain. Not bad for a low located well off the coast into New England. I want to see pics when all said and done if anyone gets the white stuff ^_^

Yeah latest GFS run looks pretty good for 1-3" if its able to stick in Eastern NY. Especially above 1k elevation. 

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