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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Fall into Winter!


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53 minutes ago, ayuud11 said:

Define "Solid hit" because we had one last year that dropped close to a foot.

 

Really not a solid hit on the Metro. Nice 1 ft from south of downtown out to the airport and out to Clarence, but a very steep gradient north, and the real stuff was well to the south. I don't know what you had, but it was maybe 9" around Canisius and less than as you went north.

By the way this was the best LES event for most of the Metro since Feb 2014. So one "almost" 12 inch storm in almost three years.

 

IMG_2356.PNG

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Called it!

Qk1xGiw.png&key=858d1707f59b4a1c99e0a9f5bfe353dcc6bcbe8d0306c31a715029301a91f77b


Got to love the long range if your a skier. Very active pattern and behind each synoptic event coming up there is a good NW flow to follow. Should be a hell of a base at the resorts for Christmas weekend. Now if the lower elevations can just cash in for a white Christmas all would be well with the world.


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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

But I was talking major hits of 2'+ for KBUF. That hasn't happened since 2006?

How many 2'+ storms have been recorded at kbuf? I can't seem to find the list of largest snowstorms, but I feel like they aren't that common. It's no secret most of our snow comes in the 1-2" variety. According to the weather service data, kbuf only averages 1 10"+ storm per winter. I certainly would love more huge storms in the metro, but I know it's not really the favored area for lake effect. 

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33 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

Just over 3" so far from this system passing through tonight. Back edge of the snow just about to push through. Should end up close to 4" by end time. Definitely more than expected.

 Binghamton’s snow totals for the 2016-2017 snow season up to 32.9 inches so far, last year they had 30" total. Crazy!!!

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2 minutes ago, southbuffalowx said:

How many 2'+ storms have been recorded at kbuf? I can't seem to find the list of largest snowstorms, but I feel like they aren't that common. It's no secret most of our snow comes in the 1-2" variety. According to the weather service data, kbuf only averages 1 10"+ storm per winter. I certainly would love more huge storms in the metro, but I know it's not really the favored area for lake effect. 

Yeah you're right, airport is just to far north. I've had a bunch down here, 6-7 20"+ in the last few years.

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20 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Both globals tonight looked good for consistent lake effect with meandering movements of bands the next 2 weeks.

No kidding, GFS and Canadian runs both looked pretty awesome for next week. Even if this event doesn't do much for the metro and immediate southtowns, I'm sure we'll get something good out of the upcoming pattern. 

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Latest from kbuf

An impressive stacked storm system...seen in WV imagery churning
east across Lake Superior early this morning...will be the driving
force behind our upcoming major lake snow event. This deep system
will track due east across the heart of Ontario this afternoon
before crossing into Quebec`s air-space late tonight and Thursday. As
this slow moving feature drifts across southern Quebec to the
Canadian maritimes by the weekend...it will circulate H85 temps as
low as -16c across the wide open Lower Great Lakes. This will
establish a moderate to extremely unstable thermal profile below 10k
ft with SBCAPEs climbing to near 1000 j/kg and lapse rates below 5k
ft easily exceeding 10 deg c/km. Meanwhile equilibrium levels will
surge to around 20k ft...more than enough to support deep mesoscale
driven convection. Microphysically...the dendritic snow growth
region will average 3-4k ft deep...which is typical for lake effect
snows within a steady...cold advective regime. This thermal profile
will encourage the growth of large dendrites that should accumulate
at a rate of at least 2 to 3 inches per hour in the heart of well
organized bands.

 

Local research shows that the synoptic placement and track of the
stacked storm system coincides extremely well with analogs for
significant lake snows east of both lakes. Additional studies
strongly suggest that this event should become electrified...at
least during the initial 24-36 hours. Given the high inversion hgt
and placement of the -10c isotherm...there should be sufficient room
to separate charges generated by the mixed phase cloud. Lightning in
lake snows are typically within 20 miles or so of the source of
instability (the lakes)...so have tried to incorporate this into the
forecast. Have even placed a bullseye for thundersnow in the vcnty
of the large wind farm on the Tug Hill where cloud to ground
strikes are more common.

 

This impactful lake snow event will begin later tonight and
intensify Thursday and Thursday night as instability increases under
a rising cap. A 250 flow over Lake Erie will initially direct lake
snows across the immediate southern portion of the BUF metro area
and extend to southern Genesee County. Several inches of snow are
likely for this area by mid morning Thursday...so a lake snow
advisory may be issued as confidence increases with the placement.
The flow will steadily veer to 270 degrees during the course of
Thursday. This will allow the plume of moderate to heavy lake snow
to settle from the Southtowns to the heart of the southern tier
where snowfall rates will increase to 2 to 3 inches per hour...
partially due to the enhanced orographic lift. Meanwhile off Lake
Ontario...a 240 flow will support lake snows over Jefferson and the
northern half of Lewis County late tonight and Thursday morning. As
in the case of the activity off Lk Erie...winds will veer to 270
during the afternoon. The plume of moderate to heavy lake snow will
push south across the Tug Hill in the process. Again...snowfall
rates will increase during this southward push...largely due to
increased fetch and also from orographic lift from the Tug.
As a surface trough moves south across the Lower Great Lakes
Thursday night...the steering flow below 10k ft will veer to the
northwest. While this will keep the focus of the Lake Erie snows
over the Western Southern Tier (particularly Chautauqua and Catt
Co`s)...it will continue to push the Lake Ontario snows further
south...off the Tug. This will place Oswego County in the
cross-hairs of Mother Natures snow machine. In the process...
overnight snowfall amounts are forecast to average a foot along and
within 20 miles east of the Chautauqua Ridge...with a foot and half
of snow expected in the vcnty of the Tug Hill Plateau.
Friday and Friday night...a fairly persistent 300-310 flow will keep
widespread accumulating lake snows in place southeast of both lakes.
Another foot of snow could easily accumulate during this 24 hour
period...again...focusing on the Chautauqua Ridge and Oswego county.
Amounts should reach at least advisory levels for Wayne and Northern
Cayuga Counties...so the current lake snow watches for those areas
will likely be updated to either advisories or warnings later today.
By the time we reach mid day Saturday...the lake snows should be
steadily weakening off both lakes as high pressure and drier air
build into the region...and as shear increases under the advancing
ridge. A general backing of the low level flow will probably still
send the remnants of these bands back north across the Buffalo and
Watertown areas Saturday afternoon and evening...before these die
out altogether Saturday night as the low level flow becomes too 
southerly
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1 minute ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

So they mention possible advisory amounts now scraping the city limits but then they go and adjust the map and drop all of northern Erie down to an inch. I'm confused...

b738ad9117480455792c174683d40e7b.png


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They got balls lmao, earlier zone forecast was calling for 4-7" for Nrn.Erie now basically nothing!

 

Tonight
Cloudy. A chance of sprinkles and drizzle in the evening...then a chance of sprinkles and drizzle or snow overnight. Lows in the upper 20s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph...becoming west. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.
Thursday
Mostly cloudy. A chance of sprinkles and drizzle or snow in the morning...then a chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30s. West winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.
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12 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

So they mention possible advisory amounts now scraping the city limits but then they go and adjust the map and drop all of northern Erie down to an inch. I'm confused...




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The possible advisory mentioned in the AFD pertains to the "immediate southern portion of the BUF metro area" so I'm assuming they're talking strictly southtowns, and probably south parts of the southtowns at that.

Another nothingburger for the majority of the metro. I guess we can look forward to the next tease, in 9-10 days or so. My over/under for seasonal snowfall at BUF on this year's solstice is 5.5". 

We can say "well, downtown and north aren't favorable for LES" but let's face facts: we have been in a serious BN snow drought for much of the last 5-6 seasons, and this year is starting terribly.

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Overnight tonight and into early Thursday morning, have backed off
the development a plume of lake effect snow into the Buffalo and
Watertown areas on the southwesterly flow. The primary reason for a
more delayed start to the accumulating snow is due to latest model
guidance delaying the arrival of more significant synoptic moisture.
Thus while equilibrium levels rise, there won`t be much background
moisture or synoptic lift to excite the lake effect snow bands in
the early morning hours. Thus expect continued drizzle/sprinkles or
light snow showers leading up to the morning commute. Thus any
potential impacts to the morning commute Thursday would be limited
to an areas were some slick spots can form if temperatures become
cold enough for drizzle to freeze, however that is a very low
confidence treat at this point. This also means very little to no
snow accumulation for much of the Buffalo metro area, with the
exception of the far southtowns, through Saturday.
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20 minutes ago, ayuud11 said:

Overnight tonight and into early Thursday morning, have backed off
the development a plume of lake effect snow into the Buffalo and
Watertown areas on the southwesterly flow. The primary reason for a
more delayed start to the accumulating snow is due to latest model
guidance delaying the arrival of more significant synoptic moisture.
Thus while equilibrium levels rise, there won`t be much background
moisture or synoptic lift to excite the lake effect snow bands in
the early morning hours. Thus expect continued drizzle/sprinkles or
light snow showers leading up to the morning commute. Thus any
potential impacts to the morning commute Thursday would be limited
to an areas were some slick spots can form if temperatures become
cold enough for drizzle to freeze, however that is a very low
confidence treat at this point. This also means very little to no
snow accumulation for much of the Buffalo metro area, with the
exception of the far southtowns, through Saturday.
 

14z HRRR shows some pretty good accumulations with a tight gradient just south of Buffalo. Pretty impressive considering that only runs out to 3AM tomorrow. If that was to come any further north, NWS will be eating their words. Hopefully, if/when they issue the advisory, they carefully word it to cover themselves in case the winds are 5 degrees more southerly than they seem to be predicting. Otherwise it could be mess during the commute tomorrow. 

14z HRRR.gif

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Glancing at some of the latest extended model runs....are we perhaps entering one of those epic stretches for the Tug, and maybe to a lesser extent ski country and points south off L. Erie?  As good as the end of this week looks for those areas, the floodgates really have the potential to open after a weak storm moves through the area Sun/Mon.  

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7 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

considering we're only about 12 hours from the start of a supposedly major lake effect event this thread is dead as the bills playoff chances... 


Yeah where are all of our Jamestown to Ellicottville to Springville folks, where there actually will be snow.

I mean, I can only get so excited about the 100th identical chase video from the 219 in Cattaraugus County.

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considering we're only about 12 hours from the start of a supposedly major lake effect event this thread is dead as the bills playoff chances... 


Really nothing left to say unless all the models blow the initial flow setup. Just wait for the start and see what happens... Nothing for the city and only a small event for the far distant south towns isn't really that interesting to me.


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52 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

considering we're only about 12 hours from the start of a supposedly major lake effect event this thread is dead as the bills playoff chances... 

Until some snow starts streaming off the lakes, I can't imagine there will be much discussion. And that might not be for you to another 12 hours. :(

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