BuffaloWeather Posted December 6, 2016 Author Share Posted December 6, 2016 10 minutes ago, tim123 said: Well i am in walworth its a eastern suburb of roc. And i will take 12 to 18. Thank you lol. I see this many times buf will likely get a advisory and would not be shocked if roc gets a few inches from erie band Your city says rochesret instead of rochester lol. Click your name in the top right, than profile, click edit profile, go to location and type in Rochester, NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 LOL! 2-3' is going to be blown away on the Tug for that timeframe!! 4-5'+ more likely, just because of the upslope and such a DEEP snow growth region..perfectly aligned with saturated layer (deep too!) The Tug will snow at 2-3"/hr. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN BAND!! Look for rates of 5-7"/hr. when the band targets the central Tug...They'll get 3' in 12 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Your city says rochesret instead of rochester lol. Click your name in the top right, than profile, click edit profile, go to location and type in Rochester, NY. Fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 6, 2016 Author Share Posted December 6, 2016 1 minute ago, tim123 said: Fixed. WOOHOO! Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 6, 2016 Author Share Posted December 6, 2016 3 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: LOL! 2-3' is going to be blown away on the Tug for that timeframe!! 4-5'+ more likely, just because of the upslope and such a DEEP snow growth region..perfectly aligned with saturated layer (deep too!) The Tug will snow at 2-3"/hr. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN BAND!! Look for rates of 5-7"/hr. when the band targets the central Tug...They'll get 3' in 12 hours... On Friday? I'm debating going to tug or south of here, if its 5-7" per hour I think it's an easy call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: On Friday? I'm debating going to tug or south of here, if its 5-7" per hour I think it's an easy call. Think thats thursday eve to fri morning. Best stuff should be south of there friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Binghamton just hoisted a Lake Effect Snow Watch for my area. Lake Effect Snow Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 226 PM EST TUE DEC 6 2016 NYZ017-018-036-037-071930- /O.NEW.KBGM.LE.A.0004.161208T2300Z-161210T1100Z/ SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AUBURN...SYRACUSE...HAMILTON...ONEIDA... ROME...UTICA 226 PM EST TUE DEC 6 2016 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. * LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN ONEIDA AND CAYUGA COUNTIES ALONG WITH ONONDAGA AND MADISON COUNTIES. * ACCUMULATIONS...A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS. * TIMING...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT, THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ALONG WITH VERY POOR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY DANGEROUS TRAVEL. * WINDS...WEST 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A LARGE AMOUNT OF SNOW IN ONLY A FEW HOURS. VISIBILITIES AND DEPTH OF SNOW CAN VARY GREATLY, IMPACTING TRAVEL SIGNIFICANTLY. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. && $$ HEDEN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 20 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: LOL! 2-3' is going to be blown away on the Tug for that timeframe!! 4-5'+ more likely, just because of the upslope and such a DEEP snow growth region..perfectly aligned with saturated layer (deep too!) The Tug will snow at 2-3"/hr. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN BAND!! Look for rates of 5-7"/hr. when the band targets the central Tug...They'll get 3' in 12 hours... 5-7"/hr? I can see 4-5" in that band Thursday night with ELs near 20kft and LI CAPE of 1000J/kg but I thought that was rather aggressive. Now I want to hear your totals outside the Tug too.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 What you think for roc. The nam seems wonky along with gfs. Navy model seems to be showing more of a lake responce. Thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 44 minutes ago, tim123 said: Think thats thursday eve to fri morning. Best stuff should be south of there friday Yes. But they still will be snowing good up there on Fri., until the winds go 300 or so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 30 minutes ago, AppsRunner said: 5-7"/hr? I can see 4-5" in that band Thursday night with ELs near 20kft and LI CAPE of 1000J/kg but I thought that was rather aggressive. Now I want to hear your totals outside the Tug too.. I've lived up there for 35+ years, just knowing the parameters progged for the entire column and sending that column into the Tug, the orographic effects will do it's magic!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 LEK knows the region better than me, so I will not argue with such a prediction haha. I will say the prospects for 4'+ is pretty high for the Tug once again with the current setup. The forecast sounding for up there on the 12z NAM looks tasty with steep low level lapse rates and energy rolling across the Lake. EQL heights around 20-22k at peak intensity would make for quite the dump. Add in the orographic enhancement, and you could easily see 3-5" an hour in the best band. Wouldn't be surprised to hear a little thunder out of this as well. I have't taken a real good look, but I will tomorrow and post some totals like I did the last one. Lots of fun up that way. I work all the time, so no chasing chances for me. Twas life Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Again nam very spotty with amounts. Is nws going with analogs with this cause models are showing not alot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: LEK knows the region better than me, so I will not argue with such a prediction haha. I will say the prospects for 4'+ is pretty high for the Tug once again with the current setup. The forecast sounding for up there on the 12z NAM looks tasty with steep low level lapse rates and energy rolling across the Lake. EQL heights around 20-22k at peak intensity would make for quite the dump. Add in the orographic enhancement, and you could easily see 3-5" an hour in the best band. Wouldn't be surprised to hear a little thunder out of this as well. I have't taken a real good look, but I will tomorrow and post some totals like I did the last one. Lots of fun up that way. I work all the time, so no chasing chances for me. Twas life Well, unfortunately, it'll be hard to verify even if it occurs, because of the sparseness of population. But, while living up there, I bore witness to 6+"/hr. stuff in Parish (limited orographic involvement) about 10 times or so over 25 years...peak was a 10"/hr. rate in the Jan. 2004 event....and an 8"/hr. rate in Feb. 2007...and as long as the progged conditions verify, I can't see why those rates won't be achievable up on the Tug at times....should be fun! But those rates are pretty much unchaseable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Nam 12 km shows nothing for roc to oswego Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 1 hour ago, tim123 said: Nam 12 km shows nothing for roc to oswego It's definitely not an ideal setup for Monroe county on this one. That said, there is some low level moisture hanging around on Friday as winds go WNW/NW. An upstream connection might hook us up with some love but I'm not holding my breath. This type of setup rarely does much in my neck of the woods. In fact, its a truly brutal setup for me as I will be just 20 miles too far East to score anything from the Erie band early on then I'll watch the Ontario band hug the shore and pummel all points East for the rest of it. Still lots of fun stuff to watch over the next few days but I'm thinking the ROC is on the sidelines for the most part. NWS is bullish with the 8-12 on their latest map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Gotta remember lake is 50 lots of heat with very cold air aloft. I think it will be more wide spread than what nam is showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 6, 2016 Author Share Posted December 6, 2016 Metro buffalo decade long screw job continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Metro buffalo decade long screw job continues.Still plenty of winter left to go. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Don't give up on a metro hit just yet, we have a window of opportunity from 0z-15z Thursday to get something going... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Plus we always overachieve whenever BUF decides not to issue any kind of warning lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southbuffalowx Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 35 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Metro buffalo decade long screw job continues. This is a bit of an exaggeration, is it not? In the last decade, metro Buffalo has received several notable lake effect storms: 10/06, 12/08, 12/10, 1/14, and 11/14. What is the long-term average of major storms in the Metro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southbuffalowx Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 7 minutes ago, ayuud11 said: Don't give up on a metro hit just yet, we have a window of opportunity from 0z-15z Thursday to get something going... Yeah, I'm quite surprised they haven't thrown up an advisory to cover in the case it over-performs. I guess we still have tomorrow to get a better feel for things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 This is a bit of an exaggeration, is it not? In the last decade, metro Buffalo has received several notable lake effect storms: 10/06, 12/08, 12/10, 1/14, and 11/14. What is the long-term average of major storms in the Metro? 2010 and both 2014 storms were south buffalo hits not really metro hits. If you go back prior metro storms were happening rather regularly Dec 95 Nov 00 Dec 01 Oct 06... I can post some more later. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 11/14 is a stretch - significant accumulations in Buffalo proper were no further north than Outer Harbor to Kaisertown, extending towards Lancaster. So missing about 75% of the population of the Metro. Coming up on three years since even a half decent lake effect event that was a solid hit for the Metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Yeah, I'm quite surprised they haven't thrown up an advisory to cover in the case it over-performs. I guess we still have tomorrow to get a better feel for things.Like I said earlier, what's wrong with just throwing up a watch and letting a few more runs process. Take the time to make the right call. If tomorrow afternoon it looks good make the upgrade, if it's looking like a miss just let the watch expire. I feel like the NWS is much too detailed in watch issuance and only put one up if they will follow it with a warning or advisory. Either way it's a hard call to make and they will take criticism one way or another. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 35 minutes ago, WNash said: 11/14 is a stretch - significant accumulations in Buffalo proper were no further north than Outer Harbor to Kaisertown, extending towards Lancaster. So missing about 75% of the population of the Metro. Coming up on three years since even a half decent lake effect event that was a solid hit for the Metro. Define "Solid hit" because we had one last year that dropped close to a foot. Quote 000 NOUS41 KBUF 141520 PNSBUF NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-150320-PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT SPOTTER REPORTS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1020 AM EST THU JAN 14 2016 SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE FOR A 48 HOUR PERIOD FROM AROUND 7 AM ON TUESDAY THROUGH THIS MORNING. THESE TOTALS COVER LAKE EFFECT SNOWS OFF OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO. ********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL******************** LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS SNOWFALL OF /INCHES/ MEASUREMENT NEW YORK ...ALLEGANY COUNTY... ALMA 8.0 1000 AM 1/13 OTHER FEDERAL 4 SW WEST ALMOND 5.6 800 AM 1/13 COCORAHS ...CATTARAUGUS COUNTY... PERRYSBURG 20.5 300 PM 1/13 COOP OBSERVER MACHIAS 18.0 700 AM 1/13 EMERGENCY MNGR OLEAN 12.0 700 AM 1/13 EMERGENCY MNGR 1 NNE FRANKLINVILLE 10.8 700 AM 1/14 COCORAHS 4 SW ALLEGANY PARK 10.0 1000 AM 1/13 COOP OBSERVER 1 WSW OLEAN 9.5 730 AM 1/14 COOP OBSERVER FRANKLINVILLE 9.0 700 AM 1/13 COCORAHS RANDOLPH 8.0 700 AM 1/13 COCORAHS 1 ENE RANDOLPH 8.0 730 AM 1/13 COCORAHS 5 N ALLEGANY 7.5 700 AM 1/13 COCORAHS LITTLE VALLEY 7.0 700 AM 1/14 COOP OBSERVER 1 SSW FRANKLINVILLE 6.0 700 AM 1/13 COOP OBSERVER 1 NE OLEAN 5.8 700 AM 1/13 COCORAHS ...CAYUGA COUNTY... 4 S STERLING 32.0 700 AM 1/14 DEPT OF HIGHWAYS VICTORY 24.0 700 AM 1/14 DEPT OF HIGHWAYS ...CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY... 2 SW FORESTVILLE 15.0 800 AM 1/14 COCORAHS 1 S DUNKIRK 5.9 700 AM 1/14 COOP OBSERVER 3 SSE FREWSBURG 5.0 700 AM 1/13 COCORAHS ...ERIE COUNTY... 2 S WALES 12.5 700 AM 1/14 COOP OBSERVER 1 W COLDEN 12.4 730 AM 1/14 COOP OBSERVER3 NE CHEEKTOWAGA 11.8 700 AM 1/14 COCORAHS BUFFALO 11.8 655 AM 1/14 NWS OFFICE 5 WNW CLARENCE CENTE 11.2 700 AM 1/14 COCORAHS EAST AMHERST 10.0 900 AM 1/14 SOCIAL MEDIA 2 NE BOSTON 10.0 745 AM 1/14 COCORAHS ENE EAST AURORA 9.7 700 AM 1/14 COCORAHS LANCASTER 9.6 500 AM 1/14 NWS EMPLOYEE ESE KENMORE 9.6 745 AM 1/14 COCORAHS 3 WSW ELMA 9.2 700 AM 1/14 COCORAHS 3 NE TONAWANDA 9.0 700 AM 1/14 COCORAHS 2 NW CHEEKTOWAGA 7.8 745 AM 1/14 COCORAHS 2 SE GLENWOOD 7.7 800 AM 1/14 COCORAHS WILLIAMSVILLE 7.5 700 AM 1/14 NWS EMPLOYEE 1 NW KENMORE 6.7 600 AM 1/14 COCORAHS E WEST SENECA 6.3 530 AM 1/14 COCORAHS ANGOLA ON THE LAKE 6.0 335 PM 1/13 SOCIAL MEDIA ELMA 5.5 500 PM 1/13 COCORAHS 2 ENE COLDEN 5.5 800 AM 1/13 COCORAHS GRAND ISLAND 5.0 1000 AM 1/14 TRAINED SPOTTER 2 SSW BLASDELL 4.5 700 AM 1/14 COCORAHS 1 ESE EAST AURORA 4.0 1000 PM 1/13 COCORAHS 4 SSE BUFFALO 3.7 645 AM 1/14 COCORAHS ...JEFFERSON COUNTY... 5 ENE CAPE VINCENT 15.2 745 AM 1/14 TRAINED SPOTTER 1 WSW WATERTOWN 14.3 600 AM 1/14 COCORAHS WATERTOWN 13.2 906 AM 1/14 SOCIAL MEDIA SE MANNSVILLE 5.0 700 AM 1/13 COCORAHS ...LEWIS COUNTY... 1 NW CONSTABLEVILLE 8.5 500 AM 1/14 COCORAHS 12 NNW HOOKER 7.9 1000 AM 1/13 COOP OBSERVER LOWVILLE 6.5 700 AM 1/14 COOP OBSERVER 2 W GLENFIELD 5.0 700 AM 1/13 COOP OBSERVER 5 SSW HARRISVILLE 5.0 530 AM 1/14 COCORAHS 6 N CROGHAN 4.8 700 AM 1/14 COCORAHS ...NIAGARA COUNTY... 1 NNE NORTH TONAWAND 7.9 700 AM 1/14 COCORAHS 6 E NIAGARA FALLS 7.8 647 AM 1/14 COCORAHS 2 E NORTH TONAWANDA 5.0 1200 AM 1/14 COOP OBSERVER ...OSWEGO COUNTY... 4 S HANNIBAL 17.0 700 AM 1/14 DEPT OF HIGHWAYS FULTON 9.3 700 AM 1/14 COOP OBSERVER PULASKI 9.0 600 AM 1/14 COOP OBSERVER 5 ESE OSWEGO 7.9 600 AM 1/14 COCORAHS MEXICO 6.0 910 AM 1/14 SOCIAL MEDIA 4 SSE LACONA 5.7 700 AM 1/14 COCORAHS 1 NNW FULTON 5.3 700 AM 1/14 COCORAHS 3 NE BENNETTS BRIDGE 5.0 700 AM 1/14 COOP OBSERVER 1 NE PULASKI 5.0 600 AM 1/14 COCORAHS FULTON LOCK O3 5.0 700 AM 1/14 COOP OBSERVER 7 NNE PHOENIX 4.5 600 AM 1/14 COCORAHS 2 SSE PALERMO 4.3 600 AM 1/14 COOP OBSERVER ...WAYNE COUNTY... WOLCOTT 16.0 700 AM 1/14 DEPT OF HIGHWAYS 1 S EAST BAY PARK 9.0 1218 PM 1/13 PUBLIC ...WYOMING COUNTY... 3 W WYOMING 13.2 700 AM 1/14 COOP OBSERVER 6 SW WARSAW 8.2 730 AM 1/14 COOP OBSERVER 3 N SILVER SPRINGS 4.4 700 AM 1/14 COOP OBSERVER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Nice little surprise snow here in roc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 8 minutes ago, tim123 said: Nice little surprise snow here in roc. Absolutely. Getting close to an inch here, plows are out. Unbelievable. I thought this was going to be all rain in my backyard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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