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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Fall into Winter!

BuffaloWeather

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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Posted
10 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Well i am in walworth its a eastern suburb of roc. And i will take 12 to 18. Thank you lol. I see this many times buf will likely get a advisory and would not be shocked if roc gets a few inches from erie band

Your city says rochesret instead of rochester lol.

Click your name in the top right, than profile, click edit profile, go to location and type in Rochester, NY.

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LakeEffectKing

LakeEffectKing

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Posted

LOL!  2-3' is going to be blown away on the Tug for that timeframe!!  4-5'+ more likely, just because of the upslope and such a DEEP snow growth region..perfectly aligned with saturated layer (deep too!)  The Tug will snow at 2-3"/hr. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN BAND!!  Look for rates of 5-7"/hr. when the band targets the central Tug...They'll get 3' in 12 hours...

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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3 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

LOL!  2-3' is going to be blown away on the Tug for that timeframe!!  4-5'+ more likely, just because of the upslope and such a DEEP snow growth region..perfectly aligned with saturated layer (deep too!)  The Tug will snow at 2-3"/hr. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN BAND!!  Look for rates of 5-7"/hr. when the band targets the central Tug...They'll get 3' in 12 hours...

On Friday? I'm debating going to tug or south of here, if its 5-7" per hour I think it's an easy call.

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CNY_WX

CNY_WX

Posted
Posted

Binghamton just hoisted a Lake Effect Snow Watch for my area. 

 

Lake Effect Snow Watch 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
226 PM EST TUE DEC 6 2016


NYZ017-018-036-037-071930-
/O.NEW.KBGM.LE.A.0004.161208T2300Z-161210T1100Z/
SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AUBURN...SYRACUSE...HAMILTON...ONEIDA...
ROME...UTICA
226 PM EST TUE DEC 6 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN ONEIDA AND CAYUGA COUNTIES ALONG WITH
  ONONDAGA AND MADISON COUNTIES.

* ACCUMULATIONS...A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MOST
  PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS.

* TIMING...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT, THROUGH FRIDAY
  NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT
  ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ALONG WITH VERY POOR VISIBILITIES AT
  TIMES. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY DANGEROUS TRAVEL.

* WINDS...WEST 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A LARGE
AMOUNT OF SNOW IN ONLY A FEW HOURS. VISIBILITIES AND DEPTH OF
SNOW CAN VARY GREATLY, IMPACTING TRAVEL SIGNIFICANTLY. CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$

HEDEN

 

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AppsRunner

AppsRunner

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

LOL!  2-3' is going to be blown away on the Tug for that timeframe!!  4-5'+ more likely, just because of the upslope and such a DEEP snow growth region..perfectly aligned with saturated layer (deep too!)  The Tug will snow at 2-3"/hr. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN BAND!!  Look for rates of 5-7"/hr. when the band targets the central Tug...They'll get 3' in 12 hours...

5-7"/hr? I can see 4-5" in that band Thursday night with ELs near 20kft and LI CAPE of 1000J/kg but I thought that was rather aggressive. 

Now I want to hear your totals outside the Tug too..

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LakeEffectKing

LakeEffectKing

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30 minutes ago, AppsRunner said:

5-7"/hr? I can see 4-5" in that band Thursday night with ELs near 20kft and LI CAPE of 1000J/kg but I thought that was rather aggressive. 

Now I want to hear your totals outside the Tug too..

I've lived up there for 35+ years, just knowing the parameters progged for the entire column and sending that column into the Tug, the orographic effects will do it's magic!! :)

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MillvilleWx

MillvilleWx

Posted
Posted

LEK knows the region better than me, so I will not argue with such a prediction haha. I will say the prospects for 4'+ is pretty high for the Tug once again with the current setup. The forecast sounding for up there on the 12z NAM looks tasty with steep low level lapse rates and energy rolling across the Lake. EQL heights around 20-22k at peak intensity would make for quite the dump. Add in the orographic enhancement, and you could easily see 3-5" an hour in the best band. Wouldn't be surprised to hear a little thunder out of this as well. I have't taken a real good look, but I will tomorrow and post some totals like I did the last one. Lots of fun up that way. I work all the time, so no chasing chances for me. Twas life

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LakeEffectKing

LakeEffectKing

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2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

LEK knows the region better than me, so I will not argue with such a prediction haha. I will say the prospects for 4'+ is pretty high for the Tug once again with the current setup. The forecast sounding for up there on the 12z NAM looks tasty with steep low level lapse rates and energy rolling across the Lake. EQL heights around 20-22k at peak intensity would make for quite the dump. Add in the orographic enhancement, and you could easily see 3-5" an hour in the best band. Wouldn't be surprised to hear a little thunder out of this as well. I have't taken a real good look, but I will tomorrow and post some totals like I did the last one. Lots of fun up that way. I work all the time, so no chasing chances for me. Twas life

Well, unfortunately, it'll be hard to verify even if it occurs, because of the sparseness of population.  But, while living up there, I bore witness to 6+"/hr. stuff in Parish (limited orographic involvement) about 10 times or so over 25 years...peak was a 10"/hr. rate in the Jan. 2004 event....and an 8"/hr. rate in Feb. 2007...and as long as the progged conditions verify, I can't see why those rates won't be achievable up on the Tug at times....should be fun!  But those rates are pretty much unchaseable.

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DeltaT13

DeltaT13

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1 hour ago, tim123 said:

Nam 12 km shows nothing for roc to oswego

It's definitely not an ideal setup for Monroe county on this one.  That said, there is some low level moisture hanging around on Friday as winds go WNW/NW.  An upstream connection might hook us up with some love but I'm not holding my breath.  This type of setup rarely does much in my neck of the woods.  In fact, its a truly brutal setup for me as I will be just 20 miles too far East to score anything from the Erie band early on then I'll watch the Ontario band hug the shore and pummel all points East for the rest of it.  Still lots of fun stuff to watch over the next few days but I'm thinking the ROC is on the sidelines for the most part.  NWS is bullish with the 8-12 on their latest map. 

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SouthBuffaloSteve

SouthBuffaloSteve

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Posted
This is a bit of an exaggeration, is it not? In the last decade, metro Buffalo has received several notable lake effect storms: 10/06, 12/08, 12/10, 1/14, and 11/14. What is the long-term average of major storms in the Metro? 



2010 and both 2014 storms were south buffalo hits not really metro hits. If you go back prior metro storms were happening rather regularly Dec 95 Nov 00 Dec 01 Oct 06... I can post some more later.


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WNash

WNash

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11/14 is a stretch - significant accumulations in Buffalo proper were no further north than Outer Harbor to Kaisertown, extending towards Lancaster. So missing about 75% of the population of the Metro.

Coming up on three years since even a half decent lake effect event that was a solid hit for the Metro.

 

 

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SouthBuffaloSteve

SouthBuffaloSteve

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Yeah, I'm quite surprised they haven't thrown up an advisory to cover in the case it over-performs. I guess we still have tomorrow to get a better feel for things.



Like I said earlier, what's wrong with just throwing up a watch and letting a few more runs process. Take the time to make the right call. If tomorrow afternoon it looks good make the upgrade, if it's looking like a miss just let the watch expire. I feel like the NWS is much too detailed in watch issuance and only put one up if they will follow it with a warning or advisory. Either way it's a hard call to make and they will take criticism one way or another.


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ayuud11

ayuud11

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35 minutes ago, WNash said:

11/14 is a stretch - significant accumulations in Buffalo proper were no further north than Outer Harbor to Kaisertown, extending towards Lancaster. So missing about 75% of the population of the Metro.

Coming up on three years since even a half decent lake effect event that was a solid hit for the Metro.

 

 

Define "Solid hit" because we had one last year that dropped close to a foot.

Quote

000
NOUS41 KBUF 141520
PNSBUF
NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-150320-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1020 AM EST THU JAN 14 2016

SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE FOR A 48 HOUR PERIOD FROM AROUND 7 AM ON TUESDAY
THROUGH THIS MORNING. THESE TOTALS COVER LAKE EFFECT SNOWS OFF OF
LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO.

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
SNOWFALL OF
/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT

NEW YORK

...ALLEGANY COUNTY...
ALMA 8.0 1000 AM 1/13 OTHER FEDERAL
4 SW WEST ALMOND 5.6 800 AM 1/13 COCORAHS

...CATTARAUGUS COUNTY...
PERRYSBURG 20.5 300 PM 1/13 COOP OBSERVER
MACHIAS 18.0 700 AM 1/13 EMERGENCY MNGR
OLEAN 12.0 700 AM 1/13 EMERGENCY MNGR
1 NNE FRANKLINVILLE 10.8 700 AM 1/14 COCORAHS
4 SW ALLEGANY PARK 10.0 1000 AM 1/13 COOP OBSERVER
1 WSW OLEAN 9.5 730 AM 1/14 COOP OBSERVER
FRANKLINVILLE 9.0 700 AM 1/13 COCORAHS
RANDOLPH 8.0 700 AM 1/13 COCORAHS
1 ENE RANDOLPH 8.0 730 AM 1/13 COCORAHS
5 N ALLEGANY 7.5 700 AM 1/13 COCORAHS
LITTLE VALLEY 7.0 700 AM 1/14 COOP OBSERVER
1 SSW FRANKLINVILLE 6.0 700 AM 1/13 COOP OBSERVER
1 NE OLEAN 5.8 700 AM 1/13 COCORAHS

...CAYUGA COUNTY...
4 S STERLING 32.0 700 AM 1/14 DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
VICTORY 24.0 700 AM 1/14 DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

...CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...
2 SW FORESTVILLE 15.0 800 AM 1/14 COCORAHS
1 S DUNKIRK 5.9 700 AM 1/14 COOP OBSERVER
3 SSE FREWSBURG 5.0 700 AM 1/13 COCORAHS

...ERIE COUNTY...
2 S WALES 12.5 700 AM 1/14 COOP OBSERVER
1 W COLDEN 12.4 730 AM 1/14 COOP OBSERVER
3 NE CHEEKTOWAGA 11.8 700 AM 1/14 COCORAHS
BUFFALO 11.8 655 AM 1/14 NWS OFFICE
5 WNW CLARENCE CENTE 11.2 700 AM 1/14 COCORAHS
EAST AMHERST 10.0 900 AM 1/14 SOCIAL MEDIA
2 NE BOSTON 10.0 745 AM 1/14 COCORAHS
ENE EAST AURORA 9.7 700 AM 1/14 COCORAHS
LANCASTER 9.6 500 AM 1/14 NWS EMPLOYEE
ESE KENMORE 9.6 745 AM 1/14 COCORAHS
3 WSW ELMA 9.2 700 AM 1/14 COCORAHS
3 NE TONAWANDA 9.0 700 AM 1/14 COCORAHS
2 NW CHEEKTOWAGA 7.8 745 AM 1/14 COCORAHS
2 SE GLENWOOD 7.7 800 AM 1/14 COCORAHS
WILLIAMSVILLE 7.5 700 AM 1/14 NWS EMPLOYEE
1 NW KENMORE 6.7 600 AM 1/14 COCORAHS
E WEST SENECA 6.3 530 AM 1/14 COCORAHS
ANGOLA ON THE LAKE 6.0 335 PM 1/13 SOCIAL MEDIA
ELMA 5.5 500 PM 1/13 COCORAHS
2 ENE COLDEN 5.5 800 AM 1/13 COCORAHS
GRAND ISLAND 5.0 1000 AM 1/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 SSW BLASDELL 4.5 700 AM 1/14 COCORAHS
1 ESE EAST AURORA 4.0 1000 PM 1/13 COCORAHS
4 SSE BUFFALO 3.7 645 AM 1/14 COCORAHS

...JEFFERSON COUNTY...
5 ENE CAPE VINCENT 15.2 745 AM 1/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 WSW WATERTOWN 14.3 600 AM 1/14 COCORAHS
WATERTOWN 13.2 906 AM 1/14 SOCIAL MEDIA
SE MANNSVILLE 5.0 700 AM 1/13 COCORAHS

...LEWIS COUNTY...
1 NW CONSTABLEVILLE 8.5 500 AM 1/14 COCORAHS
12 NNW HOOKER 7.9 1000 AM 1/13 COOP OBSERVER
LOWVILLE 6.5 700 AM 1/14 COOP OBSERVER
2 W GLENFIELD 5.0 700 AM 1/13 COOP OBSERVER
5 SSW HARRISVILLE 5.0 530 AM 1/14 COCORAHS
6 N CROGHAN 4.8 700 AM 1/14 COCORAHS

...NIAGARA COUNTY...
1 NNE NORTH TONAWAND 7.9 700 AM 1/14 COCORAHS
6 E NIAGARA FALLS 7.8 647 AM 1/14 COCORAHS
2 E NORTH TONAWANDA 5.0 1200 AM 1/14 COOP OBSERVER

...OSWEGO COUNTY...
4 S HANNIBAL 17.0 700 AM 1/14 DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
FULTON 9.3 700 AM 1/14 COOP OBSERVER
PULASKI 9.0 600 AM 1/14 COOP OBSERVER
5 ESE OSWEGO 7.9 600 AM 1/14 COCORAHS
MEXICO 6.0 910 AM 1/14 SOCIAL MEDIA
4 SSE LACONA 5.7 700 AM 1/14 COCORAHS
1 NNW FULTON 5.3 700 AM 1/14 COCORAHS
3 NE BENNETTS BRIDGE 5.0 700 AM 1/14 COOP OBSERVER
1 NE PULASKI 5.0 600 AM 1/14 COCORAHS
FULTON LOCK O3 5.0 700 AM 1/14 COOP OBSERVER
7 NNE PHOENIX 4.5 600 AM 1/14 COCORAHS
2 SSE PALERMO 4.3 600 AM 1/14 COOP OBSERVER

...WAYNE COUNTY...
WOLCOTT 16.0 700 AM 1/14 DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
1 S EAST BAY PARK 9.0 1218 PM 1/13 PUBLIC

...WYOMING COUNTY...
3 W WYOMING 13.2 700 AM 1/14 COOP OBSERVER
6 SW WARSAW 8.2 730 AM 1/14 COOP OBSERVER
3 N SILVER SPRINGS 4.4 700 AM 1/14 COOP OBSERVER

 

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