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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Fall into Winter!


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14 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

12NAM wants a messy morning commute in the metro.

6z Thursday
410fadd3254637ba5c8ea7dad5ccb305.png

9z Thursday
4642ccba96a3a427bd80f2d113e12b34.png

Gonna be a very short window for me hopefully it can crank for an hour or two. I'd be happy with a quick six inch hit.


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Hope so. Really irritated to see northern Erie, Niagara, and Genesee again as literally the only areas left out of either LES Watch or HWO. And early next week's synoptic is shaping up to be a little-to-no-accumulation mix. Is Buffalo gonna get to December 15 with at most a couple inches for the season? I don't want to see our third below 60" season in the last five years.

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10 minutes ago, WNash said:

Hope so. Really irritated to see northern Erie, Niagara, and Genesee again as literally the only areas left out of either LES Watch or HWO. And early next week's synoptic is shaping up to be a little-to-no-accumulation mix. Is Buffalo gonna get to December 15 with at most a couple inches for the season? I don't want to see our third below 60" season in the last five years.

Unless BUF gets an hour or 2 burst on Thursday AM and it's cold enough to accumulate, I can see getting to the solstice and beyond with less than 6 inches on the season.  Pattern looks active moving forward with some cold air around, but it appears that the jet stream wants to scream nearby at hyper speed.  This will probably prevent any storms that swing through from getting too deep, which also minimizes potential for backlash lake effect.  Hope I'm wrong though...

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1 hour ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

Unless BUF gets an hour or 2 burst on Thursday AM and it's cold enough to accumulate, I can see getting to the solstice and beyond with less than 6 inches on the season.  Pattern looks active moving forward with some cold air around, but it appears that the jet stream wants to scream nearby at hyper speed.  This will probably prevent any storms that swing through from getting too deep, which also minimizes potential for backlash lake effect.  Hope I'm wrong though...

Long range looks great, KBUF will have a foot by the 21st.

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I am ready! I'm off friday and going to go chasing most of the day.

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM
EST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EST
SATURDAY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN ERIE...WYOMING...CHAUTAUQUA...AND
  CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES.

* TIMING...FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES THURSDAY...6 TO 11 INCHES THURSDAY
  NIGHT...5 TO 9 INCHES FRIDAY...AND 3 TO 5 INCHES FRIDAY
  NIGHT...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 FEET IN THE MOST
  PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.
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Channel 4 model has the band in the metro

b2bf2fa387e650b2629f1543b39cff74.png

BTV WRF has the band in the metro

d330a1934ef21d7aa2001cf04dd1403b.png

2f1fb2d63aa23aa25d0ee144d75b29a7.png

e3b671b25180d928b5aa0e3f5aa49d31.png

BUF NWS is really walking the tight rope on this one. I don't think we're going to see high totals in the metro but quite a bit of agreement that a band is going to rapidly intensify right near or over the city at the start of the morning rush. Personally feel a watch is warranted solely based on the potential public impact during the morning commute time on a weekday. Even if it doesn't meet warning or advisory criteria you don't want to give those to the north the don't worry about it especially since it looks to be the first heavy snow of the season. Should be a fun 36 hours to see how this starts off.

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8 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Channel 4 model has the band in the metro
21aa70007e6a989d2aec40474f537c5d.png

BTV WRF has the band in the metro
7ce45712442524e338f50930fa91ecee.png
3c0dd517f96a7d5d21a13260e1f15e79.png
cae3959297372933fc8033fb17135cc9.png

BUF NWS is really walking the tight rope on this one. I don't think we're going to see high totals in the metro but quite a bit of agreement that a band is going to rapidly intensify right near or over the city at the start of the morning rush. Personally feel a watch is warranted solely based on the potential public impact during the morning commute time on a weekday. Even if it doesn't meet warning or advisory criteria you don't want to give those to the north the don't worry about it especially since it looks to be the first heavy snow of the season. Should be a fun 36 hours to see how this starts off.


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Yeah I think the band might even start over the city for a few hours. Looks intense on ARW/HRR WRFs

VvLvCS5.png

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6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Fix your location in your avatar, it's messing with my OCD. ^_^

 

 

Well i am in walworth its a eastern suburb of roc. And i will take 12 to 18. Thank you lol. I see this many times buf will likely get a advisory and would not be shocked if roc gets a few inches from erie band

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