AppsRunner Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 NAM's fantasy range, but this is extremely impressive. Even some surface based instability popping up on soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 LES watches for your usual suspects off Erie/Ontario. BUF noted LES watches are likely further west of Oswego eventually, but not just yet. Looking like a fun event for the Tug Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 12NAM wants a messy morning commute in the metro. 6z Thursday9z ThursdayGonna be a very short window for me hopefully it can crank for an hour or two. I'd be happy with a quick six inch hit. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 14 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: 12NAM wants a messy morning commute in the metro. 6z Thursday 9z Thursday Gonna be a very short window for me hopefully it can crank for an hour or two. I'd be happy with a quick six inch hit. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Hope so. Really irritated to see northern Erie, Niagara, and Genesee again as literally the only areas left out of either LES Watch or HWO. And early next week's synoptic is shaping up to be a little-to-no-accumulation mix. Is Buffalo gonna get to December 15 with at most a couple inches for the season? I don't want to see our third below 60" season in the last five years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 First map from KBUFA bit on the conservative side offOntario? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 10 minutes ago, WNash said: Hope so. Really irritated to see northern Erie, Niagara, and Genesee again as literally the only areas left out of either LES Watch or HWO. And early next week's synoptic is shaping up to be a little-to-no-accumulation mix. Is Buffalo gonna get to December 15 with at most a couple inches for the season? I don't want to see our third below 60" season in the last five years. Unless BUF gets an hour or 2 burst on Thursday AM and it's cold enough to accumulate, I can see getting to the solstice and beyond with less than 6 inches on the season. Pattern looks active moving forward with some cold air around, but it appears that the jet stream wants to scream nearby at hyper speed. This will probably prevent any storms that swing through from getting too deep, which also minimizes potential for backlash lake effect. Hope I'm wrong though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 4 to 8 for monroe county looks reasonable. Good starting point. Pattern coming up looks active. Lots of snow and ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Is it just me or does the nam products seem very under done for the upcoming lake snow event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Lock it in!Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 http://www.syracuse.com/weather/index.ssf/2016/12/hawaii_snow_syracuse_weather.html#incart_gallery Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 6, 2016 Author Share Posted December 6, 2016 1 hour ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Unless BUF gets an hour or 2 burst on Thursday AM and it's cold enough to accumulate, I can see getting to the solstice and beyond with less than 6 inches on the season. Pattern looks active moving forward with some cold air around, but it appears that the jet stream wants to scream nearby at hyper speed. This will probably prevent any storms that swing through from getting too deep, which also minimizes potential for backlash lake effect. Hope I'm wrong though... Long range looks great, KBUF will have a foot by the 21st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 14 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Long range looks great, KBUF will have a foot by the 21st. Roc may have 30 to 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 11 minutes ago, tim123 said: Roc may have 30 to 36 Rub it in why don't ya? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 26 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Like the pattern for roc. Been some paltry recent years for monroe county western wayne for lake snow. I long for the winters of 60 to 100 inches in one month like we had about 10 years ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Lake snow watch for roc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Just got upgraded to a warning for 2-3ft off Erie and Ontario. Some pretty serious stuff. Wonder if the Southtowns can even come in with 1'+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 6, 2016 Author Share Posted December 6, 2016 I am ready! I'm off friday and going to go chasing most of the day. ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN ERIE...WYOMING...CHAUTAUQUA...AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES. * TIMING...FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. * ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES THURSDAY...6 TO 11 INCHES THURSDAY NIGHT...5 TO 9 INCHES FRIDAY...AND 3 TO 5 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 FEET IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS. * WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. * VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 6, 2016 Author Share Posted December 6, 2016 14 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Just got upgraded to a warning for 2-3ft off Erie and Ontario. Some pretty serious stuff. Wonder if the Southtowns can even come in with 1'+ It's going to be a really close call. 3" per hour stuff is what I'm all about, going to be awesome! Can you come with me Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Foot or more roc area east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 6, 2016 Author Share Posted December 6, 2016 7 minutes ago, tim123 said: Foot or more roc area east. rochesret or rochester? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Channel 4 model has the band in the metroBTV WRF has the band in the metroBUF NWS is really walking the tight rope on this one. I don't think we're going to see high totals in the metro but quite a bit of agreement that a band is going to rapidly intensify right near or over the city at the start of the morning rush. Personally feel a watch is warranted solely based on the potential public impact during the morning commute time on a weekday. Even if it doesn't meet warning or advisory criteria you don't want to give those to the north the don't worry about it especially since it looks to be the first heavy snow of the season. Should be a fun 36 hours to see how this starts off. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: rochesret or rochester? Rochester. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 6, 2016 Author Share Posted December 6, 2016 1 minute ago, tim123 said: Rochester. Sorry. Fix your location in your avatar, it's messing with my OCD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phillifan22 Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Whoa. Big changes from this morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Fix your location in your avatar, it's messing with my OCD. Well i am in walworth its a eastern suburb ot roc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 6, 2016 Author Share Posted December 6, 2016 8 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Channel 4 model has the band in the metro BTV WRF has the band in the metro BUF NWS is really walking the tight rope on this one. I don't think we're going to see high totals in the metro but quite a bit of agreement that a band is going to rapidly intensify right near or over the city at the start of the morning rush. Personally feel a watch is warranted solely based on the potential public impact during the morning commute time on a weekday. Even if it doesn't meet warning or advisory criteria you don't want to give those to the north the don't worry about it especially since it looks to be the first heavy snow of the season. Should be a fun 36 hours to see how this starts off. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Yeah I think the band might even start over the city for a few hours. Looks intense on ARW/HRR WRFs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Whoa. Big changes from this morning...BOOM! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Warnings for the Oswego-Jeff-Lewis counties. 2-3 feet on the Tug, 1-2 feet outside. Thursday night looks realllly good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 I'll take the 18-24 for my area lol. Bring it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Fix your location in your avatar, it's messing with my OCD. Well i am in walworth its a eastern suburb of roc. And i will take 12 to 18. Thank you lol. I see this many times buf will likely get a advisory and would not be shocked if roc gets a few inches from erie band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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