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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Fall into Winter!

BuffaloWeather

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wolfie09

wolfie09

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Sounds good buff!! A little light snow is expected tomorrow night..

  

Sunday night the weather will begin to deteriorate as a shortwave
over South Dakota this afternoon crests a ridge of high pressure
over the east coast Sunday night. This shortwave will carry Gulf of
Mexico moisture eastward this weekend, and with near saturation in
the favorable snow growth zone, combined with lift ahead of the
shortwave and good isentropic upglide, a period of light snow will
form from west to east across the CWA Sunday night and into Monday
morning. This shortwave will be quick moving thus overall snow
amounts will be light, generally an inch or two across the region
Sunday night through Monday morning.
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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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23 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Is it just me or is the model spread growing as we get closer? I know it seems like an outlier right now but I really like the 0zCanadian run for an extended metro hit.


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14 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:


I will admit yesterday's CIPs run had me foaming at the mouth when it threw Dec95 in the top analogs


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Yeah they've been absolutely horrendous the last few days, but what can you expect when its so far out. Conditions don't look as good as they did a few days ago for long duration LES right now. But the Euro just made a nice track for a synoptic event Thurs into Friday and LES to follow.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016120400/ecmwf_T850_us_6.png

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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KBUF says W/NW winds. Going to be a tough year for Buffalo I think, the trend continues. SW wind events are becoming a once in a decade type stuff. =/ 

n Thursday a trough will dig across the Great Lakes region,
which will advect much colder air into Western New York. 850mb
temperatures will plummet and will average -12C to -14C across
the region Thursday night through Saturday. This will be cold
enough to support lake effect snow, with precipitation changing to
all snow by Thursday afternoon. The cyclonic flow aloft will
provide ample moisture, with embedded shortwaves likely to provide
periodic enhancement. For Thursday and Thursday night, it appears
that a WNW flow will be predominant. This may support banding east
or southeast of Lake Ontario, with less organized but persistent
bands off Lake Erie due to upsloping and moisture from Lake Huron.

On Friday and Friday night, predominantly a NW flow is expected,
which would continue lake effect snows but push the steadiest
snows a bit southward. By Saturday the upper trough axis will
shift east of the New England coast, with a weak surface high
building behind it across the Great Lakes region. This should
bring in slightly drier air and lower equilibrium levels, but
conditions still support localized lake effect snows to continue.
Winds are forecast to veer to the southwest and eventually the
south by Sunday. This would lift what is left of lake effect snow
bands northeast of the lakes.

Although consensus agrees on the cold pattern, there is still a
considerable spread among model guidance in terms of specifics.
Even a subtle shift in winds would significantly impact the
location of the heaviest snows. This said, the pattern generally
favors the greatest amounts southeast of Lake Ontario (probably focused
near Oswego county) and the Western Southern Tier. It is still too
early for specific snowfall amounts and even these areas of focus
may change as new model guidance becomes available.
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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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44 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

Yeah if you from Hamburg/Boston northward you can't like the way the patterns looking. Yeah it's better than it's been but I can see Buffalo seeing less than 6" over the next 2 weeks even with a better pattern.!

It's a good pattern for continuous shots of cold/chances at snow. I would wager more than 6" in next 2 weeks. Fulton will get another 2', same with ski country.

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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Posted 
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The period will feature cold temperatures with frequent opportunities
for snow. 12Z model guidance has trended away a potential
synoptic system, with a consensus now suggesting most of the snow
will be lake effect or at least lake enhanced. There is still
uncertainty in the wind direction and thus the location of lake
effect snow. There is the potential for significant snowfall,
especially considering the prolonged nature of the event which
runs Thursday through Saturday. Now for the details...
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CNY_WX

CNY_WX

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I just measured 1.5 inches of wet snow here, reminds me of spring snow. The precipitation has tapered off so I don't anticipate any more accumulation today. Looks like another round of light snow tomorrow night followed by the anticipated lake effect event late in the week. 

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ayuud11

ayuud11

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4 hours ago, WNash said:

Hoping Buffalo metro gets at least something from the upcoming weekend. 38% of our seasonal average snowfall comes before Jan 1, so if we want to have a near normal year, we have to build on the inch that has fallen to date.

Decent LES parameters showing up on the 12z GFS with winds staying 240'ish to 250 for several hours early Thursday.

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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Hot off the press: 

...Significant lake snows developing Thursday through at least
Friday...

The main forecast concern throughout the remainder of the period
revolves around the development of significant lake effect snows
off both lakes.

Broad troughing is expected to be anchored over the Great Lakes
Thursday with broad cyclonic flow sending arctic air southward
across the Lower Great Lakes. 850 mb temperatures start out around
-10c Thursday morning cooling to near -14c by the end of the day
Friday. Over-lake instability during this time will be extreme
with Lake Induced Capes peaking around 1000 J/KG and Lake
Equilibrium Levels nearing 20K feet. Such a strong instability
signal would suggest the potential intense snowfall rates in
excess of three inches per hour at times.

Lastest model guidance trending a bit further to the north during
the day Thursday on a west southwest flow which would bring the
lake snows into the Buffalo Southtowns off Lake Erie and up to
Watertown or even farther to the north off Lake Ontario. A
prolonged period of west northwest flow develops behind the
passage of a trough late Thursday into Friday. This will likely be
when the more intense lake snows develop, focusing on the Western
Southern Tier off Lake Erie and from east of Rochester to the
southern Tug Hill off Lake Ontario.

At this stage of the forecast it seems nearly certain that heavy
lake snows will develop and our first extended look at winter so
far this season, however trying to pin down the exact placement of
the most significant threat areas remains at a lower confidence
level, due to subtle differences in wind direction. Will need to
wait for more run-to-run consistency to begin detailing the
highest threat locations.
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SouthBuffaloSteve

SouthBuffaloSteve

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Hot off the press:

...Significant lake snows developing Thursday through at leastFriday...The main forecast concern throughout the remainder of the periodrevolves around the development of significant lake effect snowsoff both lakes.Broad troughing is expected to be anchored over the Great LakesThursday with broad cyclonic [url=http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=flow]flow[/url] sending arctic air southwardacross the Lower Great Lakes. 850 [url=http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=mb]mb[/url] temperatures start out around-10c Thursday morning cooling to near -14c by the end of the dayFriday. Over-lake [url=http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=instability]instability[/url] during this time will be extremewith Lake Induced Capes peaking around 1000 [url=http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=J/KG]J/KG[/url] and LakeEquilibrium Levels nearing 20K feet. Such a strong [url=http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=instability]instability[/url]signal would suggest the potential intense snowfall rates inexcess of three inches per hour at times.Lastest model guidance trending a bit further to the north duringthe day Thursday on a west southwest [url=http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=flow]flow[/url] which would bring thelake snows into the Buffalo Southtowns off Lake Erie and up toWatertown or even farther to the north off Lake Ontario. Aprolonged period of west northwest [url=http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=flow]flow[/url] develops behind thepassage of a [url=http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=trough]trough[/url] late Thursday into Friday. This will [url=http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=likely]likely[/url] bewhen the more intense lake snows develop, focusing on the WesternSouthern Tier off Lake Erie and from east of Rochester to thesouthern Tug Hill off Lake Ontario.At this stage of the forecast it seems nearly certain that heavylake snows will develop and our first extended look at winter sofar this season, however trying to pin down the exact placement ofthe most significant threat areas remains at a lower confidencelevel, due to subtle differences in [url=http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=wind%20direction]wind direction[/url]. Will need towait for more run-to-run consistency to begin detailing thehighest threat locations.



Fingers Crossed!!! On the plus side got the day off Thursday to hopefully enjoy the action!


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wolfie09

wolfie09

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Posted

P&C forecast for fulton

Thursday
Snow showers likely, mainly between 10am and 4pm, then occasional snow after 4pm. High near 35. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Thursday Night
Occasional snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 28. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
Friday
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 30. Blustery. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
Friday Night
Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 21. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Saturday
Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 28. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Saturday Night
A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Sunday
A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Sunday Night
A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
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tim123

tim123

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I see nws has roc in heavy snow for thursday eve and friday. Now that some of higher res models are coming in closer. Looks like event starts out on a sw flow but quickly goes west for about 12 hours. Then a secondary artic front comes through pushing a monster band along south shore then a multi band sets up from niagra to oswego. But i think it will not be a true multi band more of a general snow with so much istability and warm lake. Could be a nice event for entire shore really from niagra to tug.

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