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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Fall into Winter!

BuffaloWeather

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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41 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

 


We need a snow game this year. 3 chances to make it happen!


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McCoy is the best snow RB in the league. I think next week against Pitts has a good shot.

I went to the game on Sunday, was 45 and sunny so conditions were great for late November. Rainy games are the worst.

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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Euro weeklies show the Alaskan death vortex for the last 2 weeks of December. Doesn't look good for prolonged winter weather. We have about a 10 day window before it gets warm I think. Just hope Christmas has some snow. But of course those weeklies have been changing quite a bit. Accuracy after week 2 is not that great.

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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KBUF: 

SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE NEXT WEEK... ACCOMPANIED BY MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS... HOWEVER THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATIONS THAT COULD SEE THE GREATEST IMPACT. WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK SHOULD KEEP UP TO DATE ON THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF YOU HAVE ANY REMAINING PREPARATIONS TO MAKE FOR THE WINTER SEASON... THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY BE A GOOD TIME TO COMPLETE THOSE PREPARATIONS. 

The main storm system in question will then develop in the vcnty of
the Lower Mississippi/Ohio Valley Wednesday night or Thursday. This
deepening storm will push northeast across our region sometime on
Thursday...with the likelihood of rain over the region. It is not out
of the question that there could be some snow on the front end of
this storm system...pending its exact track. There should also be
strong winds on the backside of this deepening cyclone...and
possibly some very significant lake effect snow. The fact that the
core of the coldest air will be approaching our region via the Ohio
valley is climatologically favorable for a big southwest flow event
off Lake Erie...but the majority of the ensembles are leaning more
towards a west to northwest flow event...so stay tuned.
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DeltaT13

DeltaT13

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NWS posts this on  Tuesday:

Model discrepancies and differences aside, it does appear that there will be a non-diurnal temperature trend Monday night, with a warming low level jet and steady or rising temps through the night into Tuesday morning. A peek into the coming week also shows little in the way of a profound cool down as the truly cold air remains far to our west and northwest, across the Inter-Mountain region to the Canadian West. Winter may have to wait until its official date on the calendar.

Then this today:

SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE NEXT WEEK... ACCOMPANIED BY MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS... HOWEVER THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATIONS THAT COULD SEE THE GREATEST IMPACT. WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK SHOULD KEEP UP TO DATE ON THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF YOU HAVE ANY REMAINING PREPARATIONS TO MAKE FOR THE WINTER SEASON... THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY BE A GOOD TIME TO COMPLETE THOSE PREPARATIONS.

Do they have access to models?  Is there anyone at the wheel actually looking at the long range.  What the F.  Kind of disappointed in them these days.  

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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

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16 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

NWS posts this on  Tuesday:

Model discrepancies and differences aside, it does appear that there will be a non-diurnal temperature trend Monday night, with a warming low level jet and steady or rising temps through the night into Tuesday morning. A peek into the coming week also shows little in the way of a profound cool down as the truly cold air remains far to our west and northwest, across the Inter-Mountain region to the Canadian West. Winter may have to wait until its official date on the calendar.

Then this today:

SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE NEXT WEEK... ACCOMPANIED BY MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS... HOWEVER THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATIONS THAT COULD SEE THE GREATEST IMPACT. WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK SHOULD KEEP UP TO DATE ON THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF YOU HAVE ANY REMAINING PREPARATIONS TO MAKE FOR THE WINTER SEASON... THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY BE A GOOD TIME TO COMPLETE THOSE PREPARATIONS.

Do they have access to models?  Is there anyone at the wheel actually looking at the long range.  What the F.  Kind of disappointed in them these days.  

I couldn't agree more. 

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Well since we're going to spend the next 5-7 days watching these models flop like a fish out of water how about a little game to ease our snow withdrawal...

Who can guess where I just found this point and click forecast from.
e701a87f6883b42b3b8c57285d0fcbbe.png


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The only place I can think of is the mountains of Hawaii? Pretty incredible storm going on over there.

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=hfo&wwa=winter storm warning

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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4 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

NWS posts this on  Tuesday:

Model discrepancies and differences aside, it does appear that there will be a non-diurnal temperature trend Monday night, with a warming low level jet and steady or rising temps through the night into Tuesday morning. A peek into the coming week also shows little in the way of a profound cool down as the truly cold air remains far to our west and northwest, across the Inter-Mountain region to the Canadian West. Winter may have to wait until its official date on the calendar.

Then this today:

SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE NEXT WEEK... ACCOMPANIED BY MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS... HOWEVER THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATIONS THAT COULD SEE THE GREATEST IMPACT. WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK SHOULD KEEP UP TO DATE ON THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF YOU HAVE ANY REMAINING PREPARATIONS TO MAKE FOR THE WINTER SEASON... THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY BE A GOOD TIME TO COMPLETE THOSE PREPARATIONS.

Do they have access to models?  Is there anyone at the wheel actually looking at the long range.  What the F.  Kind of disappointed in them these days.  

Yeah, we both called them out on Tuesday for that. Not exactly sure what they were looking at. When CPC shows colder than normal for nearly the entire USA for the first time in years you start to take notice.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/6-10_day/610temp.new.gif

 

 

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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First call is band starts SW goes to W and then NW from Thurs Night into Sunday. Another clipper comes in with a better SW flow and colder air early the following week in most models/emsembles. Looks like an awesome period of active weather with lake effect moving all over. I'd say those in Fulton/Oswego should be having a party, I think they get destroyed in this setup.

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Buffalo Bumble

Buffalo Bumble

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11 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

First call is band starts SW goes to W and then NW from Thurs Night into Sunday. Another clipper comes in with a better SW flow and colder air early the following week in most models/emsembles. Looks like an awesome period of active weather with lake effect moving all over. I'd say those in Fulton/Oswego should be having a party, I think they get destroyed in this setup.

Yeah, that looks like the way things are heading.  Hopefully things stay active after the cold moves in with waves/clippers pushing through to spread the wealth around.  Looking forward to tracking/chasing again.  And in early December no less...

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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14 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

Yeah, that looks like the way things are heading.  Hopefully things stay active after the cold moves in with waves/clippers pushing through to spread the wealth around.  Looking forward to tracking/chasing again.  And in early December no less...

You should come with me and Devin next weekend if its worth going. 

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