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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Fall into Winter!

BuffaloWeather

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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Winter Is Coming

The GRR NWS is now looking at a potential pattern change that several members have been talking about for some time now.  The is from today’s discussion

  
WEEK TWO  
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)  
  
A CHANGE TOWARD A MORE PERSISTENTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS PATTERN  
CHANGE SHOULD LAST INTO THE NEW YEAR.  
  
THE MOSTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE BEEN SEEING  
OVER SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN SINCE LAST SEPTEMBER (2015) IS ABOUT TO  
COME TO AN END. THIS CHANGE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWN BY THE  
GFS AND ECMWF OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND IN FACT THE LATEST LONG  
RANGE ECMWF (28TH OF NOVEMBER) SHOWS THE COLDER TEMPERATURES  
(HIGHS BELOW FREEZING) CONTINUING INTO MID JANUARY. PART OF THE  
REASON FOR THIS CHANGE IS THE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE SEA  
SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC OCEAN. FOR  
THE MOST PART MOST OF THE NORTHERN PACIFIC OCEAN, EVEN NORTH TO  
ALASKA HAS BEEN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE SUMMER INTO MID  
FALL. SINCE OCTOBER, MOST OF NORTHERN ASIA HAS BEEN 10 TO 20  
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH UNUSABLY LARGE AMOUNTS SNOW COVER, WHICH  
AS PERSISTED THROUGH NOVEMBER. THAT COLD AIR OVER NORTHERN ASIA  
HAS RESULTED IN A SIGNIFICANT COOLING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN  
NORTH OF 35N, FROM THE ASIAN COAST NEARLY TO THE WEST COST OF  
NORTH AMERICA. THIS COOLING COUPLED WITH THE DEVELOPING WEAK LA  
NINA WILL RESULT THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE PATTERN CHANGE THAT WILL  
FAVOR A TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA FROM MID DECEMBER INTO  
AT LEAST EARLY JANUARY (AS SEEN ON THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN  
FORECAST FOR 500 HEIGHT AND 850 TEMPERATURES). IT IS THAT PATTERN  
CHANGE THAT WILL BRING US THE COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  
  
BOTH MODELS HAVE SUGGESTED A SIGNIFICANT STORM EVENT DURING THE  
LATE NEXT WEEK ( THU- FRI). IT IS WAY TO EARLY TO SUGGEST IMPACTS  
FROM THIS STORM BUT IT IS TYPICAL TO HAVE A MAJOR STORM AHEAD OF A  
MAJOR UPPER LEVEL WAVE PATTERN CHANGE. IT WOULD SEEM TO ME IF THIS  
COLDER THAN NORMAL PATTERN CHANGE DOES OCCUR WE WILL BE SEEING  
LAKEEFFECT SNOWS ONCE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE  
MEAN HAS HIGHS BELOW FREEZING STARTING ON THE THURSDAY AND  
CONTINUING THROUGH THE FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY.  
  
WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TO SEE HOW THIS PATTERN CHANGE EVOLVES  
OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.  

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Buffalo Bumble

Buffalo Bumble

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Speaking of late next week, Syracuse.com is already throwing up some flags, with an assist from NWS Binghamton.  Late next week certainly looks interesting, but seems early to be throwing around accumulation predictions...

http://www.syracuse.com/weather/index.ssf/2016/11/high-impact_storm_could_bring_rain_snow_to_upstate_ny_next_week.html#incart_m-rpt-1 

Syracuse, N.Y. -- A major storm system could arrive in Upstate New York at the end of next week, bringing a mix rain and snow.

"A surge of cold next week will produce lake effect, and we will see the snow pilling up," said Paul Pastelok, a meteorologist with Accuweather.

"It's a high-impact system from the Plains to the East, with snow, lake effect snow, heavy rain and even thunderstorms in the South," he said. "That could be one of your biggest systems of the month if it all comes together like we think it will."

The National Weather Service's long-term forecast system is also predicting several inches of snow across Upstate New York late next week, with up to a foot in the heart of Tug Hill.

The snow might not stick around until Christmas, Pastelok said. Overall, December will likely end up about 1 degree above normal, with a warmup just before Christmas.

"I don't see frigid weather the entire month of December," he said. "I think there's going to be some lake effect, but it won't be continuous throughout the month."

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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52 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

Speaking of late next week, Syracuse.com is already throwing up some flags, with an assist from NWS Binghamton.  Late next week certainly looks interesting, but seems early to be throwing around accumulation predictions...

http://www.syracuse.com/weather/index.ssf/2016/11/high-impact_storm_could_bring_rain_snow_to_upstate_ny_next_week.html#incart_m-rpt-1 

Syracuse, N.Y. -- A major storm system could arrive in Upstate New York at the end of next week, bringing a mix rain and snow.

"A surge of cold next week will produce lake effect, and we will see the snow pilling up," said Paul Pastelok, a meteorologist with Accuweather.

"It's a high-impact system from the Plains to the East, with snow, lake effect snow, heavy rain and even thunderstorms in the South," he said. "That could be one of your biggest systems of the month if it all comes together like we think it will."

The National Weather Service's long-term forecast system is also predicting several inches of snow across Upstate New York late next week, with up to a foot in the heart of Tug Hill.

The snow might not stick around until Christmas, Pastelok said. Overall, December will likely end up about 1 degree above normal, with a warmup just before Christmas.

"I don't see frigid weather the entire month of December," he said. "I think there's going to be some lake effect, but it won't be continuous throughout the month."

Unreal Euro run....

ecmwf_T850_us_10.png

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SouthBuffaloSteve

SouthBuffaloSteve

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Some nice insight from the Niz...

I also wanted to show the progression of colder temperatures across the nation. So, I used the ECMWF Ensemble model to show the progression of the Upper Level Trough (colder temps) across the Rockies Wednesday, note the ridging (warmer temps) across the Northeast. Then I go to the weekend to show the development of a Closed Upper Level Low (colder temps) over the Northeast. Now the neat part, I also have plots of the low level temperatures (850mb) for all of the Ensemble model members for Denver and Boston to show you that when it gets cold in Denver next week, its warmer in Boston. Eventually as the Upper Level Low closes off, that colder air gets into Boston.

Finally, this type of undulation in the jet stream should produce a very active weather pattern, I think we will get some big winter weather, the details however will have to wait. Stay tuned...

058f929969d57efe5524bc11622af66c.png

eabed02962f0f42a728238b3d7e2ce79.png

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Buffalo Bumble

Buffalo Bumble

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46 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

If it was just a couple degrees colder...



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The dreaded lake effect rain mega band on top of me right now...(just cold enough for some big wet flakes to mix in).  Nothing like 2"/hour snow rainfall rates pouring down in December.  Natures way of balancing out all of those summer days we sit high and dry on the Niagara Frontier under the lake shadow, while points just east pour.  

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SouthBuffaloSteve

SouthBuffaloSteve

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What a waste of a good band. Heavy wet rain/snow outside, not sticking though. 



Was just about to say how much this bites. Perfect band setup, even looks like some curvature on the northern side. Just a little more cold air and the south towns would be getting destroyed right now... Thinking about running the 219 in a few hours to check out the Boston Hills.

269ac0ade7b9d4bf2d6c51fee074010a.png


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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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KBUF latest discussion. In any case we will get some winter weather in December for the first time in years.  

Looking further down the road...the cold air over the western half
of the country is forecast to make its way across the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley during the second half of the week. There is
relatively high confidence of this change to more wintry weather...
as H85 temps are expected to finally drop into the negative teens c.
This cold air will likely be accompanied by plenty of synoptic
moisture by the end of the week...as the stacked storm system from
the northern plains will cross by to our north. If this scenario
would hold true...then the stage would be set for a significant lake
effect snow event. The question would then relate to the low level
flow...which at this time cannot be answered with any degree of
confidence. Stay tuned.
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