wolfie09 Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 Changed over to mostly snow here, coating on cold surfaces.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 Wolfe, I have a feeling this might just be the beginning for you! Bring the big numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 Thanks Dave! Hope u cash in as well.. NWS put us back at 12"-18", not sure what they were thinking earlier.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 Lake just starting to fire up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 Still at 40 on the lakeshore. Got another few hours here to deal with rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 Snowin in walworth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 Since the streak of nothingburgers for Buffalo and north continues, this is demoralizing from the latest AFD: Looking further down theroad at the November to December transition week...there are still no strong signs among the medium to long range ensembles of any significant cold weather for the Great Lakes region. The two main features to watch for...a staunch West Coast ridge and/or significant downstream blocking over the northern Atlantic...are both absent. Meanwhile a progressive...generally low amplitude Pacific dominated flow will remain in place across the lower 48 with a strong nearly zonal jet over the north Pacific. This type of pattern should continue to keep the coldest air of the Northern Hemisphere on the other side of the Pole where it has been trapped since the start of the season. Sad to see all the potential LES energy in those huge above average lake temp discrepancies was squandered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 It's snowing lightly here. Only a couple tenths so far, mainly on grassy areas and decks and cars. It's amazing that Friday I was mowing my lawn and it briefly hit 70 yesterday. I was at the SU/Florida State football game at the Carrier Dome and the temperature went from 58 to 44 during the course of the game. If the forecasts verify I will probably be using my snowblower tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 Had a coating of snow here overnight now it has changed to rain. 36* and wind has picked up a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 Measured 0.45" liquid at 8:30 with 0.1" snow...the initial synoptic part of the system overperformed a tad, as I think ~ 2-3 tenths was predicted. It'll at least serve to cool off surfaces for what comes later today. So if model qpf's are at all correct, we may get another 1-1.5" liquid, thus 12-18" in general looks right. KBGM and KBUF forecasts seem pretty well coordinated for CNY. Nice dendrite size to what's falling now and 33.3 degrees here. Of course once this transitions to pure LES, wind direction rules... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 Temperatures are just slightly too warm for most of Oswego county and I-81 in Jefferson. 925mb temperatures are only about -2C, which isn't enough at this point. Should be somewhere between noon/1PM when temperatures drop. HRRR has even the shorelines dropping into the upper 20s this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 Chautauqua ridge getting absolutely clobbered from a radar standpoint. Looks like 2-3 inches and hour with possible thundersnow. Niagara county also had some very heavy looking returns for a few hours (Poor NWS can't win, why they wouldnt just drop an advisory is beyond me.). Winds are starting to roar outside, waiting on the first squalls. We had a quick coating so far but it has since melted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 4 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Chautauqua ridge getting absolutely clobbered from a radar standpoint. Looks like 2-3 inches and hour with possible thundersnow. Niagara county also had some very heavy looking returns for a few hours (Poor NWS can't win, why they wouldnt just drop an advisory is beyond me.). Winds are starting to roar outside, waiting on the first squalls. We had a quick coating so far but it has since melted. Was right in the middle of the Niagara County radar blowup about an hour ago. Nothing too impressive. Big flakes falling at probably 1/2" to 1" hr. Didn't last long and only accumulated on grassy surfaces about 1/2"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 20, 2016 Author Share Posted November 20, 2016 22 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Chautauqua ridge getting absolutely clobbered from a radar standpoint. Looks like 2-3 inches and hour with possible thundersnow. Niagara county also had some very heavy looking returns for a few hours (Poor NWS can't win, why they wouldnt just drop an advisory is beyond me.). Winds are starting to roar outside, waiting on the first squalls. We had a quick coating so far but it has since melted. Yep they are. I bet some 20 inch totals over there when all said and done. 7 inches at frewsburg already as of this morning. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=buf&product=PNS&issuedby=BUF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 Sitting at 33 right now. Snowing lightly - very wet flakes. Probably up to 3/4 inch on cold surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 20, 2016 Author Share Posted November 20, 2016 Southern Tier getting hit hard. Whiteout on my favorite run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 Lake snow off ontario starting to organize Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 20, 2016 Author Share Posted November 20, 2016 3 hours ago, WNash said: Since the streak of nothingburgers for Buffalo and north continues, this is demoralizing from the latest AFD: Looking further down theroad at the November to December transition week...there are still no strong signs among the medium to long range ensembles of any significant cold weather for the Great Lakes region. The two main features to watch for...a staunch West Coast ridge and/or significant downstream blocking over the northern Atlantic...are both absent. Meanwhile a progressive...generally low amplitude Pacific dominated flow will remain in place across the lower 48 with a strong nearly zonal jet over the north Pacific. This type of pattern should continue to keep the coldest air of the Northern Hemisphere on the other side of the Pole where it has been trapped since the start of the season. Sad to see all the potential LES energy in those huge above average lake temp discrepancies was squandered. Yeah the long range doesn't look really good for arctic air, but it looks good for an active storm track with possible synoptic snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 37 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah the long range doesn't look really good for arctic air, but it looks good for an active storm track with possible synoptic snowstorms. That -NAO block over the Davis Strait/Greenland should retrograde with time, as most long waves due, to open up more ridging in the western arctic area, Yukon/AK, to allow for more cold air southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 20, 2016 Author Share Posted November 20, 2016 50 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: That -NAO block over the Davis Strait/Greenland should retrograde with time, as most long waves due, to open up more ridging in the western arctic area, Yukon/AK, to allow for more cold air southward. Yeah I don't think I've seen a setup quite like this where Canada is just pure torch with lower 48 all below normal. What analogs are there for this setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 Once we get to sunset around 4 i would ecpect lake ontario to really get cranking. Perhaps with some thunder snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 2 hours ago, DeltaT13 said: Chautauqua ridge getting absolutely clobbered from a radar standpoint. Looks like 2-3 inches and hour with possible thundersnow. Niagara county also had some very heavy looking returns for a few hours (Poor NWS can't win, why they wouldnt just drop an advisory is beyond me.). Winds are starting to roar outside, waiting on the first squalls. We had a quick coating so far but it has since melted. I've been chasing that Erie band since 10am and I'm not really impressed, highest total i have seen was around S.Dayton down to Cherry Creek area with about 7-9" on the ground, literally nothing by the lake shore on 90E near Dunkirk all the way to Eden. About 1/2" on grassy areas here in Cheektowaga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 20, 2016 Author Share Posted November 20, 2016 1 minute ago, ayuud11 said: I've been chasing that Erie band since 10am and I'm not really impressed, highest total i have seen was around S.Dayton down to Cherry Creek area with about 7-9" on the ground, literally nothing by the lake shore on 90E near Dunkirk all the way to Eden. About 1/2" on grassy areas here in Cheektowaga. Me and Devin were going to go out around 5. I think Cherry Creek/Frewsburg has a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 20, 2016 Author Share Posted November 20, 2016 That's a pretty decent band Northeast of Buffalo setting up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 12-18" totals for low elevations of CNY seem too aggressive with 1/3-1/2 of total storm qpf being liquid or basically non-accumulating. I could more buy 8-12" totals here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: That's a pretty decent band Northeast of Buffalo setting up. Yea moderate snow now in Cheektowaga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 20, 2016 Author Share Posted November 20, 2016 2 minutes ago, ayuud11 said: Yea moderate snow now in Cheektowaga. Did you go to Perrysburg hills on your chase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Did you go to Perrysburg hills on your chase? Yea if i were you I'd just go to Westfield and cut through Mayville and then shoot straight up to Cassadaga, you should be able to see more snow that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 46 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah I don't think I've seen a setup quite like this where Canada is just pure torch with lower 48 all below normal. What analogs are there for this setup? I'm starting to wonder if this will be a bit like 2009-2010 winter? That winter was a near total bust for Toronto - one of the city's least snowiest winters on record - while pretty much everyone to the south of us got hit with major snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 12z NMM and ARW are pumping out impressive WPF for SE Lake Ontario. There IS a very sharp cutoff to the west. Areas from Monroe/Wayne county east look to be in 1.5-1.75 zone. Folks just west of this line quickly drop off to .5". The NMM does include Roc in heavy totals (prob 15"). The ARW would give Roc a few inches. Walworth and Syracuse look to do really well~2 foot deal. Ofcourse, we are in a nowcast situation. Not entirely sure why I'm wasting my time on maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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