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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Fall into Winter!


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Since the streak of nothingburgers for Buffalo and north continues, this is demoralizing from the latest AFD:

Looking further down theroad at the November to December transition week...there are still no strong signs among the medium to long range ensembles of any significant cold weather for the Great Lakes region. The two main features to watch for...a staunch West Coast ridge and/or significant downstream blocking over the northern Atlantic...are both absent. Meanwhile a progressive...generally low amplitude Pacific dominated flow will remain in place across the lower 48 with a strong nearly zonal jet over the north Pacific. This type of pattern should continue to keep the coldest air of the Northern Hemisphere on the other side of the Pole where it has been trapped since the start of the season.

Sad to see all the potential LES energy in those huge above average lake temp discrepancies was squandered.

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It's snowing lightly here. Only a couple tenths so far, mainly on grassy areas and decks and cars. It's amazing that Friday I was mowing my lawn and it briefly hit 70 yesterday. I was at the SU/Florida State football game at the Carrier Dome and the temperature went from 58 to 44 during the course of the game. If the forecasts verify I will probably be using my snowblower tomorrow. 

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Measured 0.45" liquid at 8:30 with 0.1" snow...the initial synoptic part of the system overperformed a tad, as I think ~ 2-3 tenths was predicted.  It'll at least serve to cool off surfaces for what comes later today.  So if model qpf's are at all correct, we may get another 1-1.5" liquid, thus 12-18" in general looks right.  KBGM and KBUF forecasts seem pretty well coordinated for CNY.  Nice dendrite size to what's falling now and 33.3 degrees here.  Of course once this transitions to pure LES, wind direction rules...

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Temperatures are just slightly too warm for most of Oswego county and I-81 in Jefferson. 925mb temperatures are only about -2C, which isn't enough at this point. Should be somewhere between noon/1PM when temperatures drop. HRRR has even the shorelines dropping into the upper 20s this evening

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Chautauqua ridge getting absolutely clobbered from a radar standpoint.  Looks like 2-3 inches and hour with possible thundersnow.  Niagara county also had some very heavy looking returns for a few hours (Poor NWS can't win, why they wouldnt just drop an advisory is beyond me.).   Winds are starting to roar outside, waiting on the first squalls.  We had a quick coating so far but it has since melted.

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4 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Chautauqua ridge getting absolutely clobbered from a radar standpoint.  Looks like 2-3 inches and hour with possible thundersnow.  Niagara county also had some very heavy looking returns for a few hours (Poor NWS can't win, why they wouldnt just drop an advisory is beyond me.).   Winds are starting to roar outside, waiting on the first squalls.  We had a quick coating so far but it has since melted.

Was right in the middle of the Niagara County radar blowup about an hour ago. Nothing too impressive. Big flakes falling at probably 1/2" to 1" hr. Didn't last long and only accumulated on grassy surfaces about 1/2"...

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22 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Chautauqua ridge getting absolutely clobbered from a radar standpoint.  Looks like 2-3 inches and hour with possible thundersnow.  Niagara county also had some very heavy looking returns for a few hours (Poor NWS can't win, why they wouldnt just drop an advisory is beyond me.).   Winds are starting to roar outside, waiting on the first squalls.  We had a quick coating so far but it has since melted.

Yep they are. I bet some 20 inch totals over there when all said and done. 7 inches at frewsburg already as of this morning.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=buf&product=PNS&issuedby=BUF

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3 hours ago, WNash said:

Since the streak of nothingburgers for Buffalo and north continues, this is demoralizing from the latest AFD:


Looking further down theroad at the November to December transition week...there are still no strong signs among the medium to long range ensembles of any significant cold weather for the Great Lakes region. The two main features to watch for...a staunch West Coast ridge and/or significant downstream blocking over the northern Atlantic...are both absent. Meanwhile a progressive...generally low amplitude Pacific dominated flow will remain in place across the lower 48 with a strong nearly zonal jet over the north Pacific. This type of pattern should continue to keep the coldest air of the Northern Hemisphere on the other side of the Pole where it has been trapped since the start of the season.

Sad to see all the potential LES energy in those huge above average lake temp discrepancies was squandered.

Yeah the long range doesn't look really good for arctic air, but it looks good for an active storm track with possible synoptic snowstorms. 

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37 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Yeah the long range doesn't look really good for arctic air, but it looks good for an active storm track with possible synoptic snowstorms. 

That -NAO block over the Davis Strait/Greenland should retrograde with time, as most long waves due, to open up more ridging in the western arctic area, Yukon/AK, to allow for more cold air southward.  

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50 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

That -NAO block over the Davis Strait/Greenland should retrograde with time, as most long waves due, to open up more ridging in the western arctic area, Yukon/AK, to allow for more cold air southward.  

Yeah I don't think I've seen a setup quite like this where Canada is just pure torch with lower 48 all below normal. What analogs are there for this setup?

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11.png

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_49.png

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2 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

Chautauqua ridge getting absolutely clobbered from a radar standpoint.  Looks like 2-3 inches and hour with possible thundersnow.  Niagara county also had some very heavy looking returns for a few hours (Poor NWS can't win, why they wouldnt just drop an advisory is beyond me.).   Winds are starting to roar outside, waiting on the first squalls.  We had a quick coating so far but it has since melted.

I've been chasing that Erie band since 10am and I'm not really impressed, highest total i have seen was around S.Dayton down to Cherry Creek area with about 7-9" on the ground, literally nothing by the lake shore on 90E near Dunkirk all the way to Eden. About 1/2" on grassy areas here in Cheektowaga.

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1 minute ago, ayuud11 said:

I've been chasing that Erie band since 10am and I'm not really impressed, highest total i have seen was around S.Dayton down to Cherry Creek area with about 7-9" on the ground, literally nothing by the lake shore on 90E near Dunkirk all the way to Eden. About 1/2" on grassy areas here in Cheektowaga.

Me and Devin were going to go out around 5. I think Cherry Creek/Frewsburg has a foot. 

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46 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Yeah I don't think I've seen a setup quite like this where Canada is just pure torch with lower 48 all below normal. What analogs are there for this setup?

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11.png

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_49.png

I'm starting to wonder if this will be a bit like 2009-2010 winter? That winter was a near total bust for Toronto - one of the city's least snowiest winters on record - while pretty much everyone to the south of us got hit with major snow.

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12z NMM and ARW are pumping out impressive WPF for SE Lake Ontario. There IS a very sharp cutoff to the west. Areas from Monroe/Wayne county east look to be in 1.5-1.75 zone. Folks just west of this line quickly drop off to .5". The NMM does include Roc in heavy totals (prob 15"). The ARW would give Roc a few inches. Walworth and Syracuse look to do really well~2 foot deal. 

Ofcourse, we are in a nowcast situation. Not entirely sure why I'm wasting my time on maps

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