tim123 Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 Huge flakes coming down in walworth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 No shortage of precipitation.. Afd says 10"-18" east AND north of Oswego.. Down to 36.1, just over 0.10" of rainfall.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 About 0.16" liquid thus far. It's been mainly rain here since it started, with some ice pellets early on, in no. Onondaga cty. Intellicast P type shows us now as mix or SN although it's 36.0 and whatever is falling is currently more rain than anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 A mix of rain and snow near Rochester. Not sticking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 Nam still showing 12 to 18 roc east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 0z HiRes NAM and NAM still love Oswego county and the Tug. And ROC area with what looks to be a Georgian Bay connection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 Bet there is lightning with this at some point. Any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 Starting to get an accumulation going on the non-paved surfaces here in the eastern S Tier NW of Binghamton. Good luck to those further north and west in the lake belts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 On the bridge over the 219 at Cole Rd and it's snowing pretty good. Comes and goes in burst but I would guess about 1/2" to an inch so far but without my snow tires I'm not venturing any further down the 219 based on radar. Think Ontario will do better than off Erie. Think a max around a foot off Erie maybe closer to Mayville or Cassadaga. Max closer to 2' near the Worth area or just south. I think the city of Buffalo ( & KBUF) see storm totals under 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 Worth area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 Webcam at nearby NWS Binghamton office at 1630ft... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 5 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: On the bridge over the 219 at Cole Rd and it's snowing pretty good. Comes and goes in burst but I would guess about 1/2" to an inch so far but without my snow tires I'm not venturing any further down the 219 based on radar. Think Ontario will do better than off Erie. Think a max around a foot off Erie maybe closer to Mayville or Cassadaga. Max closer to 2' near the Worth area or just south. I think the city of Buffalo ( & KBUF) see storm totals under 1". Do you mean walworth in wayne county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4US_0z/snow60.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 Hey dave goin to be a big gradiant i think from lake shore to just a couple mile inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 6 minutes ago, tim123 said: Do you mean walworth in wayne county Worth, NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 Just now, tim123 said: Hey dave goin to be a big gradiant i think from lake shore to just a couple mile inland. Maybe. If it gets cranking, even the beech will be involved. Once you lay down that first 1" it starts accumulating. Haven't seen many early season LES events on south shore. It's why I'm looking at this like research project Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 Yes its a great study. That lake will be boiling in a 12 hours. Hoping for thundersnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 20, 2016 Author Share Posted November 20, 2016 Looks like 2" already at Holiday valley, might head down there tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 20, 2016 Author Share Posted November 20, 2016 Channel 4 just showed it down there, coming down really good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 NWS BUF is really taking a stand on this event. The point and click forecasts for Monroe County dont have anyone getting more than 5" Total! That takes guts. Flies in the face of lots of local mets and lots of models. And lots of you good folks. Very bold. We shall see. They definitely wont be upgrading based upon their current thinking. Barely a advisory level stuff as it is over several periods. They literally have me getting 3". OUCH! And they don't show much better in Wayne county. BIG BUST potential for them. I am glad to see them go a bit conservative. If I got as much snow as they forecast last winter, it woulda been a record smashing year. And we all know last year wasn't anything like THAT. LOL. IN other news. This storm looks as if it might really overperform for the peeps in Western Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 They have not updated anything in over 8 hours. They seem to be stumped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 I noticed that too Tim. This system, on a SW flow, would be a no brainer. They'd be talking feet for downtown Buffalo. But because of the unusual flow for this time of year, they are, like us, 'out on a limb'. I don't think I can stress enough, this is completely unprecedented for this time of year. WE NEVER see parameters like this on 310 flow, this early. And the primary low is already over performing. Crazy fall storm! Everything I know about LES in Monroe county says this shouldn't be a big storm. But the parameters are really good. And to have the primary low throwing back great synoptic moisture and going negative in a big way kinda gives me pause. We might not see a set up like this again for 10 years. Anyway it plays out will be intriguing. I'm already fascinated by the 3" that fell in Bing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 Josh nichols said delta t of 24 and thundersnow is possible in rochester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 20, 2016 Author Share Posted November 20, 2016 The LES Ads has Rochester getting 4-7" of snow, not sure where you get 3" * ACCUMULATIONS...AN INCH OR LESS OVERNIGHT...2 TO 4 INCHES SUNDAY...2 TO 4 INCHES SUNDAY NIGHT...AN INCH OR LESS MONDAY... LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 Even the gfs now shows 1.5" LE in the form of snow for Fulton.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: The LES Ads has Rochester getting 4-7" of snow, not sure where you get 3" * ACCUMULATIONS...AN INCH OR LESS OVERNIGHT...2 TO 4 INCHES SUNDAY...2 TO 4 INCHES SUNDAY NIGHT...AN INCH OR LESS MONDAY... LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS. The point and click forecast. If you goto the NWS BUF homepage and click anywhere over Monroe county it gives you detailed, period by period forecast including snow totals. My totals added up to @4". No where in Monroe, did they have big totals. Even the 4-7" flies in the face of multiple models and what local mets are saying. But again, I tend to agee with there conservative approach. Not being super critical here. I'm just saying they have big potential for a bust. Balzy call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 NWS just updated snow totals up quite a bit for Monroe county. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 Beat me to it. Lake snow warning for roc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 6 to 12. Still conservative but better. They do mention near blizzard conditions with winds to 45mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 8 to 15 for wayne county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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