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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Fall into Winter!


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On the bridge over the 219 at Cole Rd and it's snowing pretty good. Comes and goes in burst but I would guess about 1/2" to an inch so far but without my snow tires I'm not venturing any further down the 219 based on radar. 

 

Think Ontario will do better than off Erie. Think a max around a foot off Erie maybe closer to Mayville or Cassadaga. Max closer to 2' near the Worth area or just south. I think the city of Buffalo ( & KBUF) see storm totals under 1". 

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5 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

On the bridge over the 219 at Cole Rd and it's snowing pretty good. Comes and goes in burst but I would guess about 1/2" to an inch so far but without my snow tires I'm not venturing any further down the 219 based on radar. 

 

Think Ontario will do better than off Erie. Think a max around a foot off Erie maybe closer to Mayville or Cassadaga. Max closer to 2' near the Worth area or just south. I think the city of Buffalo ( & KBUF) see storm totals under 1". 

Do you mean walworth in wayne county

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Just now, tim123 said:

Hey dave goin to be a big gradiant i think from lake shore to just a couple mile inland. 

Maybe. If it gets cranking, even the beech will be involved. Once you lay down that first 1" it starts accumulating. Haven't seen many early season LES events on south shore. It's why I'm looking at this like research project ;)

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NWS BUF is really taking a stand on this event. The point and click forecasts for Monroe County dont have anyone getting more than 5" Total! That takes guts. Flies in the face of lots of local mets and lots of models. And lots of you good folks. Very bold. We shall see. 

They definitely wont be upgrading based upon their current thinking. Barely a advisory level stuff as it is over several periods. They literally have me getting 3". OUCH! And they don't show much better in Wayne county. BIG BUST potential for them. 

I am glad to see them go a bit conservative. If I got as much snow as they forecast last winter, it woulda been a record smashing year. And we all know last year wasn't anything like THAT. LOL. 

IN other news. This storm looks as if it might really overperform for the peeps in Western Mass. 

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I noticed that too Tim. This system, on a SW flow, would be a no brainer. They'd be talking feet for downtown Buffalo. But because of the unusual flow for this time of year, they are, like us, 'out on a limb'. 

I don't think I can stress enough, this is completely unprecedented for this time of year. WE NEVER see parameters like this on 310 flow, this early. And the primary low is already over performing. Crazy fall storm!

Everything I know about LES in Monroe county says this shouldn't be a big storm. But the parameters are really good. And to have the primary low throwing back great synoptic moisture and going negative in a big way kinda gives me pause. We might not see a set up like this again for 10 years. 

Anyway it plays out will be intriguing. I'm already fascinated by the 3" that fell in Bing. 

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7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The LES Ads has Rochester getting 4-7" of snow, not sure where you get 3"


* ACCUMULATIONS...AN INCH OR LESS OVERNIGHT...2 TO 4 INCHES
  SUNDAY...2 TO 4 INCHES SUNDAY NIGHT...AN INCH OR LESS MONDAY...
   LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IN THE MOST
  PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

The point and click forecast. If you goto the NWS BUF homepage and click anywhere over Monroe county it gives you detailed, period by period forecast including snow totals. My totals added up to @4". No where in Monroe, did they have big totals. Even the 4-7" flies in the face of multiple models and what local mets are saying. But again, I tend to agee with there conservative approach. Not being super critical here. I'm just saying they have big potential for a bust. Balzy call. 

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