tim123 Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 They did mention almost true blizzard criterea south east of lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 19, 2016 Author Share Posted November 19, 2016 First real flakes of the season falling right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 Were are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 Maybe a surprise burst for all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 19, 2016 Author Share Posted November 19, 2016 Pretty heavy snow at Holiday Valley already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 Snow mixing in here in Orchard ParkSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 NWS really downplaying totals... Hopefully they don't bust on first storm of the year. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 36 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: They cut totals quite a bit in latest forecast. Ya that map isn't even the latest map they're lasted map had totals slashed even a lot more than that. Most of Niagara Frontier only sees 1-2" including the city and northtowns and Southtowns like W.S. And Hamburg. i don't think this event is going to be anything huge. I don't see anyone getting 2' + but LakeEffectKing says otherwise so I hope I am wrong. I'll stick to my guns with less than 2" at KBUF but I'll raise ROC to about 5.3" and SYR to 9.7". Think a max around 15" on the Tug and Chautauqua Ridge somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 4 hours ago, phoenixny said: 12Z Nam hammers CNY. I agree with blizzard conditions at times with gusts over 40 mph. This is gonna be an awesome storm. Gravestone, your kids will enjoy Monday off! Lots of cancellations come Monday morning. Glad LEK is back too. Yeah, kids already asking about probability of a snow day Monday. Phoenix doesn't' give them up easily...;)...I told them it's 50/50 so they don't get tempted to blow off homework for Monday classes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 Hi res nam showing same. 1 to 2 feet south shore. Usually they start drying up closer to event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 For Erie this is pure LES, but off Ontario this is absolutely not pure LES. A ton of synoptic level support. The WRF NMM/ARW have close to 2" QPF of snow through the end of their runs at 12z Monday. Matches LEK's thoughts well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 That hi res NAM... oh boy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 Euro gives 10 to 15 south shore from orleans county east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 Mind you this is not a hi res model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 This is 4 km nam. Even if you cut in half its a big deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 NAM has a large area of 12-18" south/southeast of Lake Ontario. 4km leaves SYR with 21". BGM has 12-18" for SYR north too, so not great consistency between BGM/BUF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 Because buffalo throwing out hi res models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 19, 2016 Author Share Posted November 19, 2016 13 minutes ago, AppsRunner said: NAM has a large area of 12-18" south/southeast of Lake Ontario. 4km leaves SYR with 21". BGM has 12-18" for SYR north too, so not great consistency between BGM/BUF. Yeah latest run looked really good. You guys should grab a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 19, 2016 Author Share Posted November 19, 2016 Latest from KBUF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 They are hugging gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 6 minutes ago, tim123 said: They are hugging gfs. I think their map is darn good. Meso models always overestimate precip. Rule of thumb for Meso models is to cut totals but 1/3 so if a model is showing 18" I' wouldn't expect more than 12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 If you do that roc should be well within warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 1 hour ago, Syrmax said: Yeah, kids already asking about probability of a snow day Monday. Phoenix doesn't' give them up easily...;)...I told them it's 50/50 so they don't get tempted to blow off homework for Monday classes. Hey Brian(I think!), This should be a good storm for us man. Psyched. Tomorrow night looks real rough around these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 19, 2016 Author Share Posted November 19, 2016 4 minutes ago, phoenixny said: Hey Brian(I think!), This should be a good storm for us man. Psyched. Tomorrow night looks real rough around these parts. That's a nice looking forecast. Tonight Rain before 11pm, then rain and snow showers between 11pm and 1am, then snow showers likely after 1am. Low around 34. West wind 9 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Sunday Snow showers. Areas of blowing snow after 1pm. High near 37. Breezy, with a west wind 14 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of around 4 inches. Sunday Night Snow showers. Areas of blowing snow. Low around 30. Breezy, with a west wind 22 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 44 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of around 6 inches. Monday Snow showers. Areas of blowing snow. High near 33. Breezy, with a west wind 20 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 44 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Monday Night Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 Ice pellets mixing in with light rain north of Syracuse. Wasn't it almost 70 a few hours ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 19, 2016 Author Share Posted November 19, 2016 2 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Ice pellets mixing in with light rain north of Syracuse. Wasn't it almost 70 a few hours ago? Yeah I went out last night to watch a buddies band and was out on the deck with a tshirt at 2 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 You are right...Brian.... i'm sort of in disbelief mode still. KBGM usually more conservative (and correct) than KBUF when looking at coordinated snowfall predictions...not this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 Pellets in Phoenix. Wonder if we switch to snow when that main band reaches us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 Been goin gang busters in nw lower michigan matches very well with nam hi res Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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